================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well I'm pretty sure that folk won't be kissing their sisters goodnight in the
SE on Monday :-)
Classic snow situation developing; cold air undercutting an existing rainband,
lowering wet-bulb freezing levels, but will the cold air undercut fast enough? I
personally still think it will. No changes to my forecast. Confidence still
moderate.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well I'm pretty sure that folk won't be kissing their sisters goodnight in
the
SE on Monday :-)
Classic snow situation developing; cold air undercutting an existing
rainband,
lowering wet-bulb freezing levels, but will the cold air undercut fast
enough? I
personally still think it will. No changes to my forecast. Confidence
still
moderate.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Local forecast going for snow on higher ground only
with a sleety mix on tuesday 5-6c

"nguk" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well I'm pretty sure that folk won't be kissing their sisters goodnight in
the
SE on Monday :-)
Classic snow situation developing; cold air undercutting an existing
rainband,
lowering wet-bulb freezing levels, but will the cold air undercut fast
enough? I
personally still think it will. No changes to my forecast. Confidence
still
moderate.

Will.
--



Local forecast going for snow on higher ground only
with a sleety mix on tuesday 5-6c



Was any measure of confidence expressed in that local forecast Neil?

Will.
--

Issued at the end of last November the Frosted Earth long range forecast for
February 2006 includes this for February, " A month with similar
temperatures to January. A chilly start but then milder for awhile with
colder weather returning later in the month and some snow showers".
Looks like materialising. Certainly started cold and there has been a mild
middle part.
Ian Currie- Coulsdon, Surrey.
www.frostedearth.com





"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well I'm pretty sure that folk won't be kissing their sisters goodnight in
the
SE on Monday :-)
Classic snow situation developing; cold air undercutting an existing
rainband,
lowering wet-bulb freezing levels, but will the cold air undercut fast
enough? I
personally still think it will. No changes to my forecast. Confidence
still
moderate.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Was any measure of confidence expressed in that local forecast Neil?
(Assuming Neil's referring to the Beeb forecast in South East Today...)

Sort of - "the rain may try to turn wintry on Moday as it moves away,
especially over higher ground" or very similar wording. I can't remember the
exact words for Tuesday but the forecaster suggested wintriness was more
likely than on Monday.

Hi Will,
Thanks for the update.
From what little I know, the 12z ECM and METO look good, but only in the
longer range zone... 120T onwards where they show much more of a colder,
continental feed (more Easterly), only my opinion.
In the shorter term , say Monday, I feel the winds will be too Northerly
(NE-NNE, lots of sea track), so maybe not cold enough for lying snow.
This is all due to that high pressure that loves to sit somewhere to our
S\SW, backing into our lovely Low, somewhere to the S\SE, and the models
always struggle to see it at the longer range ;( . But definately a big
denominator to why we see so many good loking setups come crashing down to
nothing now.
Ok, of course it's alwasy been like that! , but seems to be a stronger
factor, more conssitent in GW times.
Like you say, some very interesting weather coming up. Nice to see.
Danny.
------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"nguk" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Well I'm pretty sure that folk won't be kissing their sisters
goodnight in
the
SE on Monday :-)
Classic snow situation developing; cold air undercutting an existing
rainband,
lowering wet-bulb freezing levels, but will the cold air undercut fast
enough? I
personally still think it will. No changes to my forecast. Confidence
still
moderate.

Will.
--



Local forecast going for snow on higher ground only
with a sleety mix on tuesday 5-6c



Was any measure of confidence expressed in that local forecast Neil?

Will.
--

In article ,
"danny (west kent)" writes:
From what little I know, the 12z ECM and METO look good, but only in the
longer range zone... 120T onwards where they show much more of a colder,
continental feed (more Easterly), only my opinion.
In the shorter term , say Monday, I feel the winds will be too Northerly
(NE-NNE, lots of sea track), so maybe not cold enough for lying snow.
snip

My experience has been that by the time you get to this late in the
winter NE is usually a better direction than E for cold weather. The sun
is getting more powerful and central Europe is tending to warm up, so
that a feed from Scandinavia is much better.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Was any measure of confidence expressed in that local forecast Neil?

Will.
--



Is there a measure of confidence when they ever forecast?

"Ian Currie" wrote in
. uk:

Issued at the end of last November the Frosted Earth long range
forecast for February 2006 includes this for February, " A month with
similar temperatures to January. A chilly start but then milder for
awhile with colder weather returning later in the month and some snow
showers". Looks like materialising. Certainly started cold and there
has been a mild middle part.

That's pretty impressive, but out of interest Ian - have you ever posted
details of your forecast on here when it has gone wrong?

Maybe it has never gone wrong - in which case I hold my hands up!

Richard

Ive just watched the BBC web forecast (Sat am) - as I dont watch the TV ones
anymore.
To my surprise for Monday, there is not a hint of snow expected at all over
anywhere in the UK, with a temp of 6c expected. The Rain will eventually
move away.
With sub 528dam air over a large swathe of the UK I'm finding it difficult
to reconcile this.

Phil