We MIGHT get a strong Aurora if they sky clears


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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com

17 January 2005

POWERFUL X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE CREATES STRONG SPACE RADIATION STORM

A powerful X-class solar flare (class X3.8) erupted from active
sunspot
Region 10720 at 09:52 UTC (4:52 am EST) on 17 January. This remarkable event
involved a steady increase in solar x-ray intensities for a period of over 2
hours before beginning a slow decline.X-raysremainedaboveM-classlevels
for over five and a half hours. The solar explosion was also exceptionally
"loud." At frequencies of 10 cm (about 2800 MHz), the explosion was over 80
times louder than the background noise of the Sun, registering a burst
intensity of 12,000 sfu (the normal background level being about 150 sfu).
The solar flare and the associated high velocity coronal mass ejection
succeeded in accelerating protons to near relativistic velocities, arriving
at the Earth within tens of minutes. The huge influx of energetic particles
increased the existing space radiation storm from a category S2 to a
category
S3 event, which is sufficient to be of concern to spacecraft operators and
astronauts.

This event was associated with a high velocity Earthward-directed
coronal mass ejection. Although an analysis of the CME is not yet complete,
there is fair certainty that its arrival at the Earth will result in periods
of major to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. The arrival time
is yet to be determined, but a good guess would probably be later on 18 and
into 19 January (UTC time).

Region 10720 still appears to be capable of unleashing additional
energetic solar events, which it may do (perhaps more than once) during the
next 5 to 6 days before it transits the western solar limb.


** End of Astroalert **

To see if it is worth braving the snow, wind, rain tonight, try this
worthwhile site for (UK) aurora info.
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

Karatepe wrote in message
...
We MIGHT get a strong Aurora if they sky clears


================================================== ===============
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
================================================== ===============

A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com

17 January 2005

POWERFUL X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE CREATES STRONG SPACE RADIATION STORM

A powerful X-class solar flare (class X3.8) erupted from active
sunspot
Region 10720 at 09:52 UTC (4:52 am EST) on 17 January. This remarkable
event
involved a steady increase in solar x-ray intensities for a period of over
2
hours before beginning a slow
decline.X-raysremainedaboveM-classlevels
for over five and a half hours. The solar explosion was also exceptionally
"loud." At frequencies of 10 cm (about 2800 MHz), the explosion was over
80
times louder than the background noise of the Sun, registering a burst
intensity of 12,000 sfu (the normal background level being about 150 sfu).
The solar flare and the associated high velocity coronal mass ejection
succeeded in accelerating protons to near relativistic velocities,
arriving
at the Earth within tens of minutes. The huge influx of energetic
particles
increased the existing space radiation storm from a category S2 to a
category
S3 event, which is sufficient to be of concern to spacecraft operators and
astronauts.

This event was associated with a high velocity Earthward-directed
coronal mass ejection. Although an analysis of the CME is not yet
complete,
there is fair certainty that its arrival at the Earth will result in
periods
of major to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. The arrival
time
is yet to be determined, but a good guess would probably be later on 18
and
into 19 January (UTC time).

Region 10720 still appears to be capable of unleashing additional
energetic solar events, which it may do (perhaps more than once) during
the
next 5 to 6 days before it transits the western solar limb.


** End of Astroalert **

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:14:55 -0000, "Pat Slattery"
wrote:

To see if it is worth braving the snow, wind, rain tonight, try this
worthwhile site for (UK) aurora info.
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

Bz has also decreased from 20 nT North earlier today to just over 4 nT
North a few moments ago. If it swings south, pray for the clouds to
clear!


--
Pete
http://www.digitalsky.org.uk

"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
...

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:14:55 -0000, "Pat Slattery"
wrote:

To see if it is worth braving the snow, wind, rain tonight, try this
worthwhile site for (UK) aurora info.
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

Bz has also decreased from 20 nT North earlier today to just over 4 nT
North a few moments ago. If it swings south, pray for the clouds to
clear!

You seem to be the expert on this Pete, where are you getting your readings
from?
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:21:38 -0000, "Rob Overfield"
wrote:


"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
.. .

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:14:55 -0000, "Pat Slattery"
wrote:

To see if it is worth braving the snow, wind, rain tonight, try this
worthwhile site for (UK) aurora info.
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

Bz has also decreased from 20 nT North earlier today to just over 4 nT
North a few moments ago. If it swings south, pray for the clouds to
clear!

You seem to be the expert on this Pete, where are you getting your readings
from?

X = unknown quantity, Spurt = drip under pressure - very apt in this
case ;-)

http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

as posted by Pat, is excellent and the trace is starting to wobble by
the looks of it.

Click on the "Live data links & explanation" link and you have access
to some 'live' data sites.

http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

gives you a Bz graph. www.SpaceWeather.com also gives you a Bz figure
on the left hand column of the page. It also gives a nice explanation
as to why south is preferable.

It could go any way at the moment. However, activity is better than
no activity and POES, CANOPUS and York are both showing that
something's apparently starting to happen.

--
Pete
http://www.digitalsky.org.uk

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:38:56 +0000, Pete Lawrence
wrote:

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:21:38 -0000, "Rob Overfield"
wrote:


"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
...

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:14:55 -0000, "Pat Slattery"
wrote:

To see if it is worth braving the snow, wind, rain tonight, try this
worthwhile site for (UK) aurora info.
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

Bz has also decreased from 20 nT North earlier today to just over 4 nT
North a few moments ago. If it swings south, pray for the clouds to
clear!



How far south are these things visible?

Gareth

--
Help the Tsunami Victims
http://www.justgiving.com/tsunami

"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:21:38 -0000, "Rob Overfield"
wrote:


"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
.. .

On Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:14:55 -0000, "Pat Slattery"
wrote:

To see if it is worth braving the snow, wind, rain tonight, try this
worthwhile site for (UK) aurora info.
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

Bz has also decreased from 20 nT North earlier today to just over 4 nT
North a few moments ago. If it swings south, pray for the clouds to
clear!

You seem to be the expert on this Pete, where are you getting your
readings
from?

X = unknown quantity, Spurt = drip under pressure - very apt in this
case ;-)

http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/auro...h/rt_activity/

as posted by Pat, is excellent and the trace is starting to wobble by
the looks of it.

Click on the "Live data links & explanation" link and you have access
to some 'live' data sites.

http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

gives you a Bz graph. www.SpaceWeather.com also gives you a Bz figure
on the left hand column of the page. It also gives a nice explanation
as to why south is preferable.

It could go any way at the moment. However, activity is better than
no activity and POES, CANOPUS and York are both showing that
something's apparently starting to happen.


Funny, I look at those 3 sites too! I agree, it looks like something might
happen.... Thanks for the info, I appreciate it.

--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/

This is a good site:

http://www.spacew.com/plots.php

As Pete said, keep an eye on the Bz value a northwars pointing field
will surpress the formatin of the aurora, southwrd will enhance it.

Of course, we shouldn't forget that that natural aurora filter - the
Moon is up and about tonight

--
Pete
http://www.digitalsky.org.uk

Pete Lawrence wrote:
Of course, we shouldn't forget that that natural aurora filter - the
Moon is up and about tonight

It looks like the CME struck a few hours ago, it seems there is quite a
strong geomagnetic strom in progress.