Do I read the GFS correctly? Is there is risk of heavy snow across the
centre of England on Friday night on the north edge of the little
depression swinging SE across the country?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/60_30.gif

"Redshift" wrote in message
...
Do I read the GFS correctly? Is there is risk of heavy snow across the
centre of England on Friday night on the north edge of the little
depression swinging SE across the country?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/60_30.gif

.... interesting one isn't it! A lot can go wrong with these small-scale
features - it looks as if the cold low-level air will flood down from
the north, but it will all be finely balanced as regards the
positioning/intensity of that small-scale low; certainly 'one to watch'!

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

In message , Martin Rowley
writes

"Redshift" wrote in message
.. .
Do I read the GFS correctly? Is there is risk of heavy snow across the
centre of England on Friday night on the north edge of the little
depression swinging SE across the country?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/60_30.gif

... interesting one isn't it! A lot can go wrong with these small-scale
features - it looks as if the cold low-level air will flood down from
the north, but it will all be finely balanced as regards the
positioning/intensity of that small-scale low; certainly 'one to watch'!

Martin.

And probably completely unforecastable at the resolution that matters
:-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
And probably completely unforecastable at the resolution that matters
:-)

I'm sure the 4km meso will come in useful :-)

Jon.

In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
And probably completely unforecastable at the resolution that matters
:-)

I'm sure the 4km meso will come in useful :-)

Indeed it will, but 4km model resolution doesn't mean 4km accuracy
resolution, especially on a 24-hour forecast :-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

"Redshift" wrote in message
...
Do I read the GFS correctly? Is there is risk of heavy snow across the
centre of England on Friday night on the north edge of the little
depression swinging SE across the country?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/60_30.gif

... interesting one isn't it! A lot can go wrong with these small-scale
features - it looks as if the cold low-level air will flood down from
the north, but it will all be finely balanced as regards the
positioning/intensity of that small-scale low; certainly 'one to watch'!

Martin.

Reminiscent of 18th November 2004 -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041118.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041119.gif

Joe

Reminiscent of 18th November 2004 -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041118.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041119.gif

That was PATHETIC in comparison with what the Siberian children have at
this very same time of year.

That all said though, that day brought us some three days of lying
snow, hence the snowiest November, for my area, anyway, since 1996, so
I am not complaining.:-) ****ed off, hell, yeah. But not complaining
THIS time.

D.

"Damien" wrote in message
ups.com...
Reminiscent of 18th November 2004 -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041118.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...ka20041119.gif

That was PATHETIC in comparison with what the Siberian children have at
this very same time of year.

I think your expectations of the British climate are somewhat unrealistic
as regards snow!

That all said though, that day brought us some three days of lying
snow, hence the snowiest November, for my area, anyway, since 1996, so
I am not complaining.:-) ****ed off, hell, yeah. But not complaining
THIS time.

Whereabouts in the country are you?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

Ah, "Col", the man(?) who always posts after me, without fail.;-)

I think your expectations of the British climate are somewhat
unrealistic
as regards snow!

But very much realistic regarding Slavs.:-)

Whereabouts in the country are you?

The North-West, just east of the Pennines. We tend to miss out on BOTH
north-westerlies AND easterlies, although December 1995, February 1994,
and the other great, undoubtedly Scandinavian-induced events of the
last two or three decades have been quite kind of Huddersfield.
However, the 1999 - or was it 2000? - easterly produced pathetic WET
SNOW here and heavy snow for Brian Gaze and co. down in the South-East.
Hence, my big fear is that, with north-westerlies, like now, hardly
EVER delivering, easterly outbreaks may have lost their key "touch" or
edge in recent years. Maybe they are just not getting this far inland?

October(!) 2000 and February 2001 were good for north-westerly/easterly
outbreaks respectively though.:-)

D.

In message , Martin Rowley
writes

"Redshift" wrote in message
.. .
Do I read the GFS correctly? Is there is risk of heavy snow across the
centre of England on Friday night on the north edge of the little
depression swinging SE across the country?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/60_30.gif

... interesting one isn't it! A lot can go wrong with these small-scale
features - it looks as if the cold low-level air will flood down from
the north, but it will all be finely balanced as regards the
positioning/intensity of that small-scale low; certainly 'one to watch'!
Martin, What interests me is the shift from yesterdays GFS and UKMO
products to today's. In the good days (and they were) the T=48
southerly jet forecast over Newfoundland, (UKMO) would certainly
introduce a cold northerly over UK. (George's Theorem). Agreement
between models is fairly good at midday, but continuity from yesterday
is poor.
Fascinating stuff, but when you have to issue every night caution is
essential in these circumstances.
The small feature forecast to cross UK was first handled by the GFS on
1200 prog Monday, ignored last night now back again. Basically we don't
know. But the potential for some snow is there - exactly where again we
don't know yet.
Still - some interest.
Regards
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS