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This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

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Summary valid for Sunday 23/01/05 to Saturday 29/01/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 20/01/05 1900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

This forecast is largely based on ECMWF model information as that model has been
most consistent recently and is arguably the best NWP model in the world today.

High confidence for a lot of dry weather in the NW of the British Isles as an
anticyclone builds and persists to the west of Ireland, moving slowly north and
eventually linking with a ridge over Scandinavia extending west from the
Siberian high pressure region.

60% confident that in southern and eastern parts a cold east to northeast
airflow will become established.

So for Scotland, northern Ireland, northern England and Wales the week looks
like being predominantly dry apart from a few wintry showers near eastern coasts
and possibly some light snow later in south Wales. Cold and bright by day with
spells of sunshine but with moderate frosts overnight in light winds.

SE England the Midlands and SW England look like being cloudier with a moderate
to fresh east or northeast wind, possibly gales near SW coasts later. Wintry
showers in eastern coastal areas at times and cold with night frosts well
inland. 40% risk of snow showers spreading inland later in the week as colder
air advects westwards. Low risk of some substantial snowfall over the moors of
SW England later.

Trend for the following week is for the easterly regime to persist with the
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas. Confidence low to
moderate.


Will.
--


" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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