"Martin Rowley" m wrote in
message ...


But after lengthy discussions today with the Met office Hills have been
assured that advances in technology make it possible for them to provide a
result anywhere in London not just on the met office roof. As a result
Hills have moved the London snow result to Buckingham Palace and the
surrounding area for which they are presently offering 8/1."


8-1?
What measely odds!
I wonder what the *real* odds are based on statistical analysis
of snow falling in central London, rather than those offered by
bookies who need to make a profit and also mindful of the fact
that nobody ever takes the reverse bet on it *not* being a
white Christmas.

25-1? 33-1 even?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Yes, the Daily Express... that's the same newspaper that had front page
banner headlines at the end of the July heatwave proclaiming that if we'd
thought July was hot, August was going to be even hotter! They certainly got
that one wrong.

Then they were going on about how unaturally warm it was mid October,
forgetting completely that we had even higher temperatures even later in the
previous year (I recall it being 21C in Fort William on the Thursday of the
last week in November 2005).

The Express seems quite enthusiastic about running weather stories that seem
to nearly always run along the theme of "... and the weathermen say it's
going to get even worse/better/hotter/wetter..." (delete as applicable).

And, while on the Express rantline, why is it they always have a Princess Di
story on the front page every Monday morning? It doesn't matter what's going
on in the world, Monday is always Princess Di Day in the Express!

Sorry, I do realise that this last point is off-topic... David Allan.

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Martin Rowley" m wrote in
message ...


But after lengthy discussions today with the Met office Hills have been
assured that advances in technology make it possible for them to provide a
result anywhere in London not just on the met office roof. As a result
Hills have moved the London snow result to Buckingham Palace and the
surrounding area for which they are presently offering 8/1."


8-1?
What measely odds!
I wonder what the *real* odds are based on statistical analysis
of snow falling in central London, rather than those offered by
bookies who need to make a profit and also mindful of the fact
that nobody ever takes the reverse bet on it *not* being a
white Christmas.

25-1? 33-1 even?
--

I believe it's about 13-1.

Will.
--

"Col" wrote in message
...

What measely odds!
I wonder what the *real* odds are based on statistical analysis
of snow falling in central London, rather than those offered by
bookies who need to make a profit and also mindful of the fact
that nobody ever takes the reverse bet on it *not* being a
white Christmas.

25-1? 33-1 even?
--
Col

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...ex.html#recent
indicates around 10/1 for London.

As for the reverse bet, I think some do, err, allegedly.

Jon.

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message


25-1? 33-1 even?
--

I believe it's about 13-1.

Really? I am surprised.
So does that mean that on average snow falls in central
London twice in December?
I know I'm twisting things a bit because snow in early
December is rarer than later in the month, but there are
31 days in the month.....

Or am I just getting my statistics in a twist here
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Col wrote:
I believe it's about 13-1.

Really? I am surprised.
So does that mean that on average snow falls in central
London twice in December?

If the odds are 13:1 against snow falling on krismus day in central London, how
could that mean it would snow twice in December?

I know I'm twisting things a bit because snow in early
December is rarer than later in the month, but there are
31 days in the month.....

But no one gave the odds of snow in December, at least, not that I noticed.

Or am I just getting my statistics in a twist here

As if (-:

--
Gianna

"Gianna" wrote in message
...
Col wrote:
I believe it's about 13-1.

Really? I am surprised.
So does that mean that on average snow falls in central
London twice in December?

If the odds are 13:1 against snow falling on krismus day in central
London, how could that mean it would snow twice in December?

I'm assuming (big assumption I know) that the odds of it snowing on any
other day in December are also 13-1.
Now if there were 26 days in December, I know there aren't but bear with
me here, does that not mean that on average there should be 2 days in
December where snow actually falls?
OK December has 31 days so that should mean slightly more than 2
days with snow. However the chances of snow in early December must
be significantly less than later in the month so this would reduce
the number of snow days.



But no one gave the odds of snow in December, at least, not that I
noticed.

Or am I just getting my statistics in a twist here

As if (-:

Statistics abuse!
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

In article ,
Col writes:
snip
So does that mean that on average snow falls in central
London twice in December?
I know I'm twisting things a bit because snow in early
December is rarer than later in the month, but there are
31 days in the month.....

Twice in the month probably isn't too far out. Don't forget that it only
needs a single flake to be observed.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

Col wrote:


I'm assuming (big assumption I know) that the odds of it snowing on any
other day in December are also 13-1.

Call that your premise.


However the chances of snow in early December must
be significantly less than later in the month so this would reduce
the number of snow days.


Which you state is false.



Statistics abuse!


And here we are - but it is fun (-:

--
Gianna

"David Allan" wrote in message
...
Yes, the Daily Express... that's the same newspaper that had front page
banner headlines at the end of the July heatwave proclaiming that if we'd
thought July was hot, August was going to be even hotter! They certainly
got
that one wrong.

That's the media for you. I heard an insurance (or reinsurance) company lost
around four billion dollars through taking out extra cover because some
unofficial source told them that the 2006 hurricane season was going to be
as bad as 2005.


Then they were going on about how unaturally warm it was mid October,
forgetting completely that we had even higher temperatures even later in
the previous year (I recall it being 21C in Fort William on the Thursday
of the last week in November 2005).


Well, mid October was unnaturally warm if you compare to climatology. Just
because there were unusually warm conditions at the same time last year
doesn't mean the conditions this year were not unusual. What I found unusual
in particular were the 18-20C max temperatures experienced day after day
during the first half of the month only dropping slightly during the second
half. It is the first October where I have not had to put my heating on.