Some weeks ago I mentioned , in a half joking post , that I thought the
next month in line to be the warmest in the CE temperature record might be
December. Is it time to take this more seriously?
Look at the facts - this year July and September both beat the long term
records for warmth, October, which set a new record for warmth in 2001 ,
came close to beating it in 2005 and again his year. The last 3 weeks of
November have almost equalled the astonishing warmth of November 1994.
December, in recent years, has gone against the warming trend and the last
significant warm month was in 1994. It is tempting to suggest that the next
warm one is due.

In an attempt to get away from the relentless westerlies, which show no sign
of giving way, I looked at my diary for 1969( I hardly needed to look as I
knew what it showed anyway!) Cold air from the north arrived on 28 November
when rain turned to snow even in the south. On the 29th, the maximum here
was 0c and a polar trough produced a snowfall which lasted 2 and a half
hours. I then had 3 consecutive mornings with a snowcover. Daytime
temperatures here then were lower than those being achieved now in
Iceland, Scandinavia and eastern Europe. I know that too much mustn't be
read into isolated events but, nevertheless, there will need to a drastic
change for cold conditions to develop in December.

In recent weeks, several medium range forecasts have suggested cold spells
in late November. None has turned up, the westerlies have keep going with
increasing vigour and show no sign of giving up.

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that December will be a very mild
month, perhaps with a quiet spell mid-month with a frosty night or two. It
seems highly unlikely, after all these warm months since May that , out of
the blue, December will be cold.. I am going to keep the long term warm
records for the month handy.

I should be very interested to hear whether anyone in the Group can be more
optimistic for a decent cold spell in December and will be quite cheerful if
I am proved to be wrong.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that December will be a very mild
month, perhaps with a quiet spell mid-month with a frosty night or two. It
seems highly unlikely, after all these warm months since May that , out of
the blue, December will be cold.. I am going to keep the long term warm
records for the month handy.

I should be very interested to hear whether anyone in the Group can be more
optimistic for a decent cold spell in December and will be quite cheerful if
I am proved to be wrong.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m

Agreed Peter - looking at the satellite imagery today the jet coming
from the SW was so powerful that it made the depression at the head look
like a weapon of mass destruction!

Zonality and a high to the south look like persisting for some time -
but I am still wondering about the cold SST's in the North Sea -
summat's up, but I'm not sure what.

James
--
James Brown

I agree totally with your logic and prognosis, Peter. If December is
at or close to record warmth; then it may well set the tone for the
rest of the winter. We shall see. The glorious thing is no one knows.
I read some fantastic theories of vortices, sea surface temperature,
teleconnections, sun-spots, oscillations and so on. Trouble is; none
of these methods can claim any sort of reliable LRF success. If they
could, there would be little debate because we would know what to
expect. At least on this forum, one can use the 'mild' word without
fear of abuse.

wrote in message
ps.com...

snip
At least on this forum, one can use the 'mild' word without
fear of abuse.


Yes as long as you avoid the dreaded "at least it will be mild" phrase.

:-)

Will
--

Will Hand wrote:
wrote in message
ps.com...

snip
At least on this forum, one can use the 'mild' word without
fear of abuse.


Yes as long as you avoid the dreaded "at least it will be mild" phrase.

:-)

Will
--


Or a "Mini mild spell"

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

James Brown wrote:


Zonality and a high to the south look like persisting for some time -
but I am still wondering about the cold SST's in the North Sea -
summat's up, but I'm not sure what.


Cold SSTs in the North Sea?
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...t.20061122.gif

Graham
Penzance

I should be very interested to hear whether anyone in the Group can be more
optimistic for a decent cold spell in December and will be quite cheerful if
I am proved to be wrong.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m


Peter I'm not even be optimistic of a decent cold spell in the whole of
the winter let alone December!
I said a while back I think (gut feeling) it will be a very mild Winter
if not the warmest on record and we will probably have to wait until
March/April for a half decent snowfall.

--
Graham

Graham Easterling wrote:
James Brown wrote:

Zonality and a high to the south look like persisting for some time -
but I am still wondering about the cold SST's in the North Sea -
summat's up, but I'm not sure what.


Cold SSTs in the North Sea?
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...t.20061122.gif

Graham
Penzance


The cold anomaly to the south of Newfoundland is breaking up as well :-(
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS...11.27.2006.gif
Mild mild and more b*&^%y mild.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

In message . com,
Graham Easterling writes

James Brown wrote:


Zonality and a high to the south look like persisting for some time -
but I am still wondering about the cold SST's in the North Sea -
summat's up, but I'm not sure what.


Cold SSTs in the North Sea?
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...t.20061122.gif

Graham
Penzance


Yes, I know that site - but:
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Reursst.gif

shows some SST's much lower than the ambient temps for this region ATM
and I 'think' lower than this time last year.

Cheers
--
James Brown

If GW is a reality ,isn't it inevitable that existing warmth records will be
increasingly broken ?.
Perhaps though when the wind stops blowing from the Atlantic for a while we
might see what winter is capable of at 50-60 degrees north ? !

Regards to all

RonB
" Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...
Some weeks ago I mentioned , in a half joking post , that I thought the
next month in line to be the warmest in the CE temperature record might be
December. Is it time to take this more seriously?
Look at the facts - this year July and September both beat the long term
records for warmth, October, which set a new record for warmth in 2001 ,
came close to beating it in 2005 and again his year. The last 3 weeks of
November have almost equalled the astonishing warmth of November 1994.
December, in recent years, has gone against the warming trend and the last
significant warm month was in 1994. It is tempting to suggest that the
next warm one is due.

In an attempt to get away from the relentless westerlies, which show no
sign of giving way, I looked at my diary for 1969( I hardly needed to look
as I knew what it showed anyway!) Cold air from the north arrived on 28
November when rain turned to snow even in the south. On the 29th, the
maximum here was 0c and a polar trough produced a snowfall which lasted 2
and a half hours. I then had 3 consecutive mornings with a snowcover.
Daytime temperatures here then were lower than those being achieved now
in Iceland, Scandinavia and eastern Europe. I know that too much mustn't
be read into isolated events but, nevertheless, there will need to a
drastic change for cold conditions to develop in December.

In recent weeks, several medium range forecasts have suggested cold spells
in late November. None has turned up, the westerlies have keep going with
increasing vigour and show no sign of giving up.

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that December will be a very mild
month, perhaps with a quiet spell mid-month with a frosty night or two. It
seems highly unlikely, after all these warm months since May that , out of
the blue, December will be cold.. I am going to keep the long term warm
records for the month handy.

I should be very interested to hear whether anyone in the Group can be
more optimistic for a decent cold spell in December and will be quite
cheerful if I am proved to be wrong.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m