Well the pattern change I at Haytor Meteorological Office hinted at last week in
the regular weekly forecast looks like happening! :-O

Over the weekend, pressure looks like building over the UK and lasting well into
the following week. This will introduce temperatures around normal with frost
and possibly fog at night, and, more importantly, some dry weather. Although
northern areas won't be completely dry. No sign of any cold weather as the
pattern is still slightly progressive which means the high could subsequently
topple away to our east. But ... as with any change it won't take much for the
upper atmosphere to develop the high to our west (as some runs are hinting) thus
introducing a colder northerly and an interesting blocked pattern. The next few
days will be critical for the outcome. But at least we will, one way or the
other get rid of this mild and wet SW'ly.

As a postscript, if the high does topple away east later next week then you can
forget any cold weather until at least January and Christmas could well end up
exceptionally mild but wet in places. Also the Alps can forget about snow too,
as can most of Europe. So this week's developments are vital. Anyone know a good
snow dance? :-)

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will Hand wrote:

As a postscript, if the high does topple away east later next week then you can
forget any cold weather until at least January and Christmas could well end up
exceptionally mild but wet in places. Also the Alps can forget about snow too,
as can most of Europe. So this week's developments are vital. Anyone know a good
snow dance? :-)

I'm always keen to see how the winter forecast pans out - so Jon
O'Rourke's set up a basic page where the daily GFS that verifies at 12z
Christmas Day can be compiled each day as we approach Xmas. Something I
recall doing on here a while back.

A bit of fun really, but also quite interesting as well to see just how
a forecast changes as verification time shortens (and to compare
against Mr W. Hill's odds !!).

http://www.metbrief.com/loop.html

At the moment: looks like a +ve NAO-ish phase !

Richard

Will Hand wrote:
Well the pattern change I at Haytor Meteorological Office hinted at last week in
the regular weekly forecast looks like happening! :-O

Over the weekend, pressure looks like building over the UK and lasting well into
the following week. This will introduce temperatures around normal with frost
and possibly fog at night, and, more importantly, some dry weather. Although
northern areas won't be completely dry. No sign of any cold weather as the
pattern is still slightly progressive which means the high could subsequently
topple away to our east. But ... as with any change it won't take much for the
upper atmosphere to develop the high to our west (as some runs are hinting) thus
introducing a colder northerly and an interesting blocked pattern. The next few
days will be critical for the outcome. But at least we will, one way or the
other get rid of this mild and wet SW'ly.

As a postscript, if the high does topple away east later next week then you can
forget any cold weather until at least January and Christmas could well end up
exceptionally mild but wet in places. Also the Alps can forget about snow too,
as can most of Europe. So this week's developments are vital. Anyone know a good
snow dance? :-)

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Will,

Are you suggesting that this current pattern is too mild for snow - or
just too dry if the high does topple east.

I'm not so sure that the current pattern is bad for snow. They had a
sizable dump around the south side of the Alps at the weekend (I think
a Genoa low may have contributed!) with 40cms at 100cm and 110 cm at
2,800m.

The west side of the Alps received around a foot at 1,400m.

The current problem is a predicted rise in the 0c isotherm throughout
this week and I think a foehn wind has begun to develop on the north
side.

Cheers,

Will Hand wrote:

Well the pattern change I at Haytor Meteorological Office hinted at last week in
the regular weekly forecast looks like happening!

Well done. Perhaps you might take a look at the dates of the phases
though when ever you detect such changes in the offing. Not that I am
seeking credit for my work but it might help you make your mind up
about such things as there is enough angst in forecasting as it is.

Is this high likely to be to the east of the UK? I would guess it is.
And might it thus provide thunder or something for those living on the
east coat?

Weatherlawyer wrote:
stuff snipped

Well done. Perhaps you might take a look at the dates of the phases
though when ever you detect such changes in the offing. Not that I am
seeking credit for my work but it might help you make your mind up
about such things as there is enough angst in forecasting as it is.

Is this high likely to be to the east of the UK? I would guess it is.
And might it thus provide thunder or something for those living on the
east coat?

Weatherlawyer are you related in anyway to the late Stanley Unwin?

I don't know what it is, but there is something.........

--
Steve R.
Swansea

Weatherlawyer wrote:
stuff snipped

Well done. Perhaps you might take a look at the dates of the phases
though when ever you detect such changes in the offing. Not that I am
seeking credit for my work but it might help you make your mind up
about such things as there is enough angst in forecasting as it is.

Is this high likely to be to the east of the UK? I would guess it is.
And might it thus provide thunder or something for those living on the
east coat?

Weatherlawyer are you related in anyway to the late Stanley Unwin?

I don't know what it is, but there is something.........

--
Steve R.
Swansea

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well the pattern change I at Haytor Meteorological Office hinted at last
week in
the regular weekly forecast looks like happening! :-O

Over the weekend, pressure looks like building over the UK and lasting
well into
the following week. This will introduce temperatures around normal with
frost
and possibly fog at night, and, more importantly, some dry weather.
Although
northern areas won't be completely dry. No sign of any cold weather as the
pattern is still slightly progressive which means the high could
subsequently
topple away to our east. But ... as with any change it won't take much for
the
upper atmosphere to develop the high to our west (as some runs are
hinting) thus
introducing a colder northerly and an interesting blocked pattern. The
next few
days will be critical for the outcome. But at least we will, one way or
the
other get rid of this mild and wet SW'ly.

Indeed, it seems that some fair weather is on its way for much of NW Europe.
White Christmas for the lucky ones in Greece :-(

Yannis, Vienna

12Z GFS Weds 13th is a step in the cold direction. i.e. high further to west
with good warm advection on western side helping to build it over the UK. More
changes to come no doubt, but a trend may be appearing? We shall see.
Still a critical few days ahead for snow lovers.

Ooom oom om in ya, ooom oom om in ya, ooom oom om in ya, .... :-)

Will.
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well the pattern change I at Haytor Meteorological Office hinted at last week
in
the regular weekly forecast looks like happening! :-O

Over the weekend, pressure looks like building over the UK and lasting well
into
the following week. This will introduce temperatures around normal with frost
and possibly fog at night, and, more importantly, some dry weather. Although
northern areas won't be completely dry. No sign of any cold weather as the
pattern is still slightly progressive which means the high could subsequently
topple away to our east. But ... as with any change it won't take much for the
upper atmosphere to develop the high to our west (as some runs are hinting)
thus
introducing a colder northerly and an interesting blocked pattern. The next
few
days will be critical for the outcome. But at least we will, one way or the
other get rid of this mild and wet SW'ly.

As a postscript, if the high does topple away east later next week then you
can
forget any cold weather until at least January and Christmas could well end up
exceptionally mild but wet in places. Also the Alps can forget about snow too,
as can most of Europe. So this week's developments are vital. Anyone know a
good
snow dance? :-)

Will.
--
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-

In message , Will Hand
writes
12Z GFS Weds 13th is a step in the cold direction. i.e. high further to west
with good warm advection on western side helping to build it over the UK. More
changes to come no doubt, but a trend may be appearing? We shall see.
Still a critical few days ahead for snow lovers.

Ooom oom om in ya, ooom oom om in ya, ooom oom om in ya, .... :-)

Will.
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well the pattern change I at Haytor Meteorological Office hinted at last week
in
the regular weekly forecast looks like happening! :-O

Over the weekend, pressure looks like building over the UK and lasting well
into
the following week. This will introduce temperatures around normal with frost
and possibly fog at night, and, more importantly, some dry weather. Although
northern areas won't be completely dry. No sign of any cold weather as the
pattern is still slightly progressive which means the high could subsequently
topple away to our east. But ... as with any change it won't take
much for the
upper atmosphere to develop the high to our west (as some runs are hinting)
thus
introducing a colder northerly and an interesting blocked pattern. The next
few
days will be critical for the outcome. But at least we will, one way or the
other get rid of this mild and wet SW'ly.

As a postscript, if the high does topple away east later next week then you
can
forget any cold weather until at least January and Christmas could
well end up
exceptionally mild but wet in places. Also the Alps can forget about
snow too,
as can most of Europe. So this week's developments are vital. Anyone know a
good
snow dance? :-)

Will.
--

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-------
Will, I have not heard of snow dances - so I have little knowledge
except your basic Ooom, Oom... etc.
Now it is all very well you living up a half mountain among sheep. Here
I may assume you can perform this ritual naked for maximum
effectiveness.
Unfortunately I live in the Uplands of Greetham and am therefore bathed
in street lights. I am not prepared to take the risk as some of my
neighbours seem hyper-sexed.
However as I agree with you on how critical the situation is I may
tightly draw the curtains, and shut all doors. I shall also have to
evict the moggy for the sake of decorum.
Then chanting the words I shall strip and dance around the coffee table
naked emitting the Ooom noises.
Should I perform this clockwise or in a more cyclonic pattern?.
I confidently expect positive results from global models in 24 hours,
but am concerned that they may not be able to react that quickly -
anyone down there at the NWPC give me guidance on the likely lag of me
girating the coffee table naked and the model output?
Cheers
Paul.
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Then chanting the words I shall strip and dance around the coffee table
naked emitting the Ooom noises.
I confidently expect positive results from global models in 24 hours, but
am concerned that they may not be able to react that quickly - anyone down
there at the NWPC give me guidance on the likely lag of me girating the
coffee table naked and the model output?
Cheers
Paul.
--

Good lord, Paul. You sound...dare I say it...excited? ...as does Will!
Could there be cold at the end of this mild tunnel!?
....have you published your winter forecast yet, Paul?


Joe