Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

CelticMan wrote:
But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating
in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me :)

Cheers
Chris

So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride?

oooook



Surely you aren't suggesting that anyone would prefer to see a bit of snow
rather than enjoy a 200km cycle ride?
(Assuming that 'very rare event' meant a bit of snow and that the 'anyone' was
someone who was a cyclist.)

Such a preference really would merit your Hawaii style 'ok'.

--
Gianna

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

Dave Cornwell wrote:
Going by the trend in recent years, I wonder how many years it will be
before the average number of days per year with snow lying in Athens
exceeds that in London!

----------
Judging by Yannis's posts in the last couple of years I think we might
already be there!
Dave



Control run looks cold :-)

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Mmm, I'm going to have to drive to the South Coast next weekend !

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

Double wammy on ECWMF, not only a Scandi High but a low running up the
east coast of the States up the Labrador Straights enabling the
Greenland High to link up with the Azores High cutting off route 1
Atlantic lows :-)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

"Russel Sprout" wrote in message
...

"Johndoe" wrote in message
g.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Johndoe" wrote in message
ng.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very
cold
air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5
;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)


He he full blown retrogression. Awesome.

I'll raise you 5 :-)

Will.
--



I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20
years
ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in
these
globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our
shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek
peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air
wouild
have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in
this
area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time
the
advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little
resistance
further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will
sink
into the subtropics and die!

We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the
sensible outcome!



Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be
ruled out.
Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a
tad
further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further
east as
per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia
with a
1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at
T+72. GFS
is cold.

So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance
cold based
on operational run NWP alone.

ATB,

Will.
--



Got to admit Will it has a Jan 11 1987 look to it, except the Atlantic is
far more awake this time!

also a small matter of 10-15dam diference TT
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119870113.gif

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

On 16 Feb, 21:14, "Will Hand" wrote:

Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic

Please cite your references, Will !

Richard

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

On 16 Feb, 23:22, "Russel Sprout" wrote:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...119870113.gif- Hide quoted text -

And on a 3-4c higher surface temperature likeness,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119910208.gif

Richard

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride?

oooook

Surely you aren't suggesting that anyone would prefer to see a bit of snow
rather than enjoy a 200km cycle ride?

Gianna

---------

A skier who doesn't like cycling, perhaps?
Dave

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

Dave Cornwell wrote:
So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride?

oooook
Surely you aren't suggesting that anyone would prefer to see a bit of snow
rather than enjoy a 200km cycle ride?

Gianna

---------

A skier who doesn't like cycling, perhaps?
Dave



It's all flattened out this morning :-(

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

On 17 Feb, 08:57, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

It's all flattened out this morning :-(

.....and will probably change again by midday and again by Sunday 00z.
What a mess !

Richard

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

This isn't looking likely at the moment.

The cold pool won't be far away, but will it make it across the N Sea?

When the GFS goes through wild swings within the space of 18 hours.
*shrug* who the hell knows?

Looks like everyone will be kept in suspense until the last minute

But those people who aren't cold weather lovers, will be wondering
what all the fuss is about, either way