Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.
Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS
at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last
snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level
from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be
more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still
likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes
accumulating rapidly above 200m asl.

OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet
today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in
forecasting blocks).

Will.
--
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Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.
Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g
12Z GFS
at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the
last
snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at
low-level
from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will
be
more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is
still
likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky
flakes
accumulating rapidly above 200m asl.

OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything
yet
today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in
forecasting blocks).

I must admit Will, in my limited understanding of the various models,
the GFS in it's latest run has 'firmed up' again and there is also some
support from the other models as well.
To coin a phrase, more runs are needed.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.
Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g
12Z GFS
at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the
last
snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at
low-level
from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will
be
more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is
still
likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky
flakes
accumulating rapidly above 200m asl.

OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything
yet
today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in
forecasting blocks).

Will.

Earlier ensemble data from EC was similar to yesterday.
I'll stick with PROB30 as per
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html

:-)

Jon.

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

On 16 Feb, 17:17, "Col" wrote:

I must admit Will, in my limited understanding of the various models,
the GFS in it's latest run has 'firmed up' again and there is also some
support from the other models as well.
To coin a phrase, more runs are needed.....

I'll start taking a proper interest if the midday EC and UKMET runs
have more of an easterly bias and are keener on making the continental
high less shy and withdrawn !!

Richard

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.
Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g
12Z GFS
at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the
last
snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at
low-level
from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will
be
more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is
still
likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky
flakes
accumulating rapidly above 200m asl.

OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything
yet
today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in
forecasting blocks).

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Hats off to you Will, a brave call given the NWP output, but I'm sure your
experience has to count for something. Hope your right by the way!

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

In message , Will Hand
writes
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.
Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS
at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last
snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level
from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be
more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still
likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet
sticky flakes
accumulating rapidly above 200m asl.

OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet
today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in
forecasting blocks).

Will.
Well Will, my beloved City are away at Walsall in 30mins and the TV is
breaking up, such is my sadness. GFS has returned to temporary cold
spell. And it is a joy to see. I cannot do a full model browse due to
PMT (Pre Match Tension). But will come back on this.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

Jon O'Rourke wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)




Well well.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...deterministic/

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)


He he full blown retrogression. Awesome.

I'll raise you 5 :-)

Will.
--

Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
 

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Jon O'Rourke wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)




Well well.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...deterministic/

--

Haytor meteorological office are now considering issuing an early warning of
possible disruption due to heavy snow on Dartmoor for all ground above 300m asl.
as hoards of would be sledgers and snow boarders head for the hills clogging up
the icy narrow lanes.

Will Hand, Chief forecaster at Haytor meteorological office said, "it's far too
early to be certain, but we spotted the signs a few days ago and this is being
confirmed by up-to-date runs of numerical models, we will be monitoring the
developing situation closely, as the cold air could come in very quickly from
the east".

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------