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Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east. Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes accumulating rapidly above 200m asl. OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in forecasting blocks). Will. -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes accumulating rapidly above 200m asl. OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in forecasting blocks). I must admit Will, in my limited understanding of the various models, the GFS in it's latest run has 'firmed up' again and there is also some support from the other models as well. To coin a phrase, more runs are needed..... -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Will Hand" wrote in message
... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes accumulating rapidly above 200m asl. OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in forecasting blocks). Will. Earlier ensemble data from EC was similar to yesterday. I'll stick with PROB30 as per http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html :-) Jon. |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
On 16 Feb, 17:17, "Col" wrote:
I must admit Will, in my limited understanding of the various models, the GFS in it's latest run has 'firmed up' again and there is also some support from the other models as well. To coin a phrase, more runs are needed..... I'll start taking a proper interest if the midday EC and UKMET runs have more of an easterly bias and are keener on making the continental high less shy and withdrawn !! Richard |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes accumulating rapidly above 200m asl. OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in forecasting blocks). Will. -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hats off to you Will, a brave call given the NWP output, but I'm sure your experience has to count for something. Hope your right by the way! |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
In message , Will Hand
writes Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes accumulating rapidly above 200m asl. OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in forecasting blocks). Will. Well Will, my beloved City are away at Walsall in 30mins and the TV is breaking up, such is my sadness. GFS has returned to temporary cold spell. And it is a joy to see. I cannot do a full model browse due to PMT (Pre Match Tension). But will come back on this. Cheers Paul -- 'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates. Paul Bartlett FRMetS www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather. 400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Will Hand" wrote in message
... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
Jon O'Rourke wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) Well well. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...deterministic/ -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) He he full blown retrogression. Awesome. I'll raise you 5 :-) Will. -- |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message ... Jon O'Rourke wrote: "Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) Well well. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...deterministic/ -- Haytor meteorological office are now considering issuing an early warning of possible disruption due to heavy snow on Dartmoor for all ground above 300m asl. as hoards of would be sledgers and snow boarders head for the hills clogging up the icy narrow lanes. Will Hand, Chief forecaster at Haytor meteorological office said, "it's far too early to be certain, but we spotted the signs a few days ago and this is being confirmed by up-to-date runs of numerical models, we will be monitoring the developing situation closely, as the cold air could come in very quickly from the east". Will. -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) He he full blown retrogression. Awesome. I'll raise you 5 :-) Will. -- I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink into the subtropics and die! We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the sensible outcome! |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Johndoe" wrote in message ng.com... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) He he full blown retrogression. Awesome. I'll raise you 5 :-) Will. -- I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink into the subtropics and die! We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the sensible outcome! Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be ruled out. Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a tad further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further east as per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia with a 1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72. GFS is cold. So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold based on operational run NWP alone. ATB, Will. -- |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
Will Hand wrote:
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes accumulating rapidly above 200m asl. OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in forecasting blocks). Will. -- I have a huge respect for you Will. But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me :) Cheers Chris |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Chris Smith" wrote in message
... But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me :) Cheers Chris Cold and grey with the odd snow grain any good, Chris ?! Jon. |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
In article om,
Johndoe writes: I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink into the subtropics and die! Going by the trend in recent years, I wonder how many years it will be before the average number of days per year with snow lying in Athens exceeds that in London! -- John Hall Weep not for little Leonie Abducted by a French Marquis! Though loss of honour was a wrench Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936) |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me :) Cheers Chris So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride? oooook |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Johndoe" wrote in message ng.com... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) He he full blown retrogression. Awesome. I'll raise you 5 :-) Will. -- I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink into the subtropics and die! We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the sensible outcome! Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be ruled out. Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a tad further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further east as per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia with a 1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72. GFS is cold. So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold based on operational run NWP alone. ATB, Will. -- Got to admit Will it has a Jan 11 1987 look to it, except the Atlantic is far more awake this time! |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Will Hand" wrote in message
... Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be ruled out. Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a tad further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further east as per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia with a 1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72. GFS is cold. So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold based on operational run NWP alone. ATB, Will. 12Z EC ensemble data showed a good split at T+168 and if anything the bias was towards the colder solutions, say 60/40. GFS operational run now showing good inter-run consistency in terms of the broadscale pattern. Things could get interesting if we end up with the slow moving frontal zone in our part of the world as the GFS is indicating. Jon. |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
Going by the trend in recent years, I wonder how many years it will be before the average number of days per year with snow lying in Athens exceeds that in London! ---------- Judging by Yannis's posts in the last couple of years I think we might already be there! Dave |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Johndoe" wrote in message g.com... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Johndoe" wrote in message ng.com... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) He he full blown retrogression. Awesome. I'll raise you 5 :-) Will. -- I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink into the subtropics and die! We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the sensible outcome! Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be ruled out. Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a tad further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further east as per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia with a 1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72. GFS is cold. So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold based on operational run NWP alone. ATB, Will. -- Got to admit Will it has a Jan 11 1987 look to it, except the Atlantic is far more awake this time! also a small matter of 10-15dam diference TT |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
CelticMan wrote:
But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me :) Cheers Chris So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride? oooook Surely you aren't suggesting that anyone would prefer to see a bit of snow rather than enjoy a 200km cycle ride? (Assuming that 'very rare event' meant a bit of snow and that the 'anyone' was someone who was a cyclist.) Such a preference really would merit your Hawaii style 'ok'. -- Gianna |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
Dave Cornwell wrote:
Going by the trend in recent years, I wonder how many years it will be before the average number of days per year with snow lying in Athens exceeds that in London! ---------- Judging by Yannis's posts in the last couple of years I think we might already be there! Dave Control run looks cold :-) http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Mmm, I'm going to have to drive to the South Coast next weekend ! -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
Double wammy on ECWMF, not only a Scandi High but a low running up the
east coast of the States up the Labrador Straights enabling the Greenland High to link up with the Azores High cutting off route 1 Atlantic lows :-) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Russel Sprout" wrote in message ... "Johndoe" wrote in message g.com... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Johndoe" wrote in message ng.com... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air coming into UK next week from the east. Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-) Jon. PS have a look at EC :-) He he full blown retrogression. Awesome. I'll raise you 5 :-) Will. -- I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink into the subtropics and die! We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the sensible outcome! Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be ruled out. Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a tad further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further east as per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia with a 1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72. GFS is cold. So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold based on operational run NWP alone. ATB, Will. -- Got to admit Will it has a Jan 11 1987 look to it, except the Atlantic is far more awake this time! also a small matter of 10-15dam diference TT http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119870113.gif |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
On 16 Feb, 21:14, "Will Hand" wrote:
Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic Please cite your references, Will ! Richard |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
On 16 Feb, 23:22, "Russel Sprout" wrote:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...119870113.gif- Hide quoted text - And on a 3-4c higher surface temperature likeness, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive...0119910208.gif Richard |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride? oooook Surely you aren't suggesting that anyone would prefer to see a bit of snow rather than enjoy a 200km cycle ride? Gianna --------- A skier who doesn't like cycling, perhaps? Dave |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
Dave Cornwell wrote:
So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride? oooook Surely you aren't suggesting that anyone would prefer to see a bit of snow rather than enjoy a 200km cycle ride? Gianna --------- A skier who doesn't like cycling, perhaps? Dave It's all flattened out this morning :-( -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
On 17 Feb, 08:57, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote: It's all flattened out this morning :-( .....and will probably change again by midday and again by Sunday 00z. What a mess ! Richard |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
This isn't looking likely at the moment.
The cold pool won't be far away, but will it make it across the N Sea? When the GFS goes through wild swings within the space of 18 hours. *shrug* who the hell knows? Looks like everyone will be kept in suspense until the last minute But those people who aren't cold weather lovers, will be wondering what all the fuss is about, either way |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
On Feb 17, 12:22 am, "Richard Dixon" wrote:
On 16 Feb, 21:14, "Will Hand" wrote: Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic Please cite your references, Will ! Richard going on the latest runs ,it all appears to have gone very very wrong all so quick chances now 5% |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"vince" wrote in message
oups.com... On Feb 17, 12:22 am, "Richard Dixon" wrote: going on the latest runs ,it all appears to have gone very very wrong all so quick chances now 5% Yes, the ensemble data from the last day or so indicates that a milder more progressive pattern for the uk is the more likely outcome, with the deep cold air remaining just to the E/NE of the UK. However, given its expected proximity and the uncertainty there has been up until now, I would've thought that the risk of more wintry weather in the far NE of the UK is still somewhat higher than 5%, say 30-40%. Also interesting to note that while the GFS/EC have waxed and waned the MetO GM has remained fairly consistent with the more progressive solution for the UK. Whatever happens much of central/eastern parts of Europe are about to become properly cold which, IIRC, is something we haven't really seen so far this winter. Jon. |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... Yes, the ensemble data from the last day or so indicates that a milder more progressive pattern for the uk is the more likely outcome, with the deep cold air remaining just to the E/NE of the UK. However, given its expected proximity and the uncertainty there has been up until now, I would've thought that the risk of more wintry weather in the far NE of the UK is still somewhat higher than 5%, say 30-40%. Also interesting to note that while the GFS/EC have waxed and waned the MetO GM has remained fairly consistent with the more progressive solution for the UK. Whatever happens much of central/eastern parts of Europe are about to become properly cold which, IIRC, is something we haven't really seen so far this winter. Jon. Jon, Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the Day 6 to 15: "However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this remains in the balance" although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday the 23rd I'm not sure. Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to milder weather... Phil |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
... Jon, Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the Day 6 to 15: "However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this remains in the balance" although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday the 23rd I'm not sure. Phil, yes, the risk is still very much in the minds of those in Ops (at least it was yesterday !) and given the uncertainty we've seen up till now it's still worth highlighting in any medium range forecast. Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to milder weather... Certainly has been interesting to watch how this one is evolving and how the operational models and ensembles have handled it. A particularly tricky one at times for medium range, not least as there's so much data these days to plough through. Jon. |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Phil Layton" wrote in message ... Jon, Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the Day 6 to 15: "However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this remains in the balance" although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday the 23rd I'm not sure. Phil, yes, the risk is still very much in the minds of those in Ops (at least it was yesterday !) and given the uncertainty we've seen up till now it's still worth highlighting in any medium range forecast. Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to milder weather... Certainly has been interesting to watch how this one is evolving and how the operational models and ensembles have handled it. A particularly tricky one at times for medium range, not least as there's so much data these days to plough through. Jon. Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36 hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale - mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I note that on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this means I'm not sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be in like a flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-) Will (Foggy Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl). -- |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
In article ,
Will Hand writes: Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36 hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale - mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I note that on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this means I'm not sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be in like a flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-) I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the picture for Wick isn't that different. -- John Hall Weep not for little Leonie Abducted by a French Marquis! Though loss of honour was a wrench Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936) |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
In article ,
John Hall writes: In article , Will Hand writes: Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36 hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale - mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I note that on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this means I'm not sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be in like a flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-) I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the picture for Wick isn't that different. Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone now! -- John Hall Weep not for little Leonie Abducted by a French Marquis! Though loss of honour was a wrench Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936) |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
On Sun, 18 Feb 2007 19:04:43 +0000, John Hall
wrote: In article , John Hall writes: I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the picture for Wick isn't that different. Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone now! Yes indeed! I see that by Sunday, the GFS is siggesting a day max temperature of 13 deg C over Southern and Central England although the cold air (0 deg C max) isn't too far away... over Denmark and Northern Germany. Knowing how variable the GFS is at this range, all is not yet lost, I'd say. But I won't be placing a bet on any more snow in the south this Winter! -- Dave |
Confidence 60% still in snow next week.
"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message ... On Sun, 18 Feb 2007 19:04:43 +0000, John Hall wrote: In article , John Hall writes: I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the picture for Wick isn't that different. Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone now! Yes indeed! I see that by Sunday, the GFS is siggesting a day max temperature of 13 deg C over Southern and Central England although the cold air (0 deg C max) isn't too far away... over Denmark and Northern Germany. Knowing how variable the GFS is at this range, all is not yet lost, I'd say. But I won't be placing a bet on any more snow in the south this Winter! -- Dave ---- I think it was Will who said of the last knife edge situation it's best to revert to climatology. This taught me that in the last 20 years the cold pool always slips S.E to Greece! Dave, distinctly unsurprised. |
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