In spite of the general public feeling very chilly out and about today as
the wind was strong and it was around 5C or 6C early afternoon in many
places below 100 metres, it was relatively mild for a north westerly or
northerly airstream in virtually mid February. Today would almost certainly
have been several degrees colder given a similar situation in Victorian
times and for that matter the 1950s and 1960s. A max of 3C would have been
expected. Even now at 20.00hrs the mercury has risen and is 5C. The
trajectory of the air flow these days has a more westerly component and
seems to me to have backed about 30 degrees compared to bursts of cold in
the 1950s. Good examples I can cite and there were more are the third week
of Jan 1952 and around the 12th in Feb; mid Feb1953 and mid Feb 1955.; the
7th Feb 1958 and late Feb 1958, and mid Jan 1959. Feb 1956 was mostly north
easterly with its severe cold.
I
Still it proved quite a shock for many people after a max of 12C the
previous day and even more so for those in the vicinity of the Downs in the
Reigate area where snow lay 1 to 2cm deep around 08.00hrs this
morning.However it had melted by mid morning even at 230 metres.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon.

Mr. Currie!

Does the following look familiar?:

"February 05
COLD EARLY WITH SOME SNOW and cold late in month- mild mid month
average overall. Rainfall below par. Sunshine 10% up."

:-( :-(

Seriously, though, what happened?

When is the "Evaluation of Forecasts" section of your website going to
be updated as well? It hasn't been updated since last August!:-o :-(

D.

Ian Currie wrote:
In spite of the general public feeling very chilly out and about today as
the wind was strong and it was around 5C or 6C early afternoon in many
places below 100 metres, it was relatively mild for a north westerly or
northerly airstream in virtually mid February. Today would almost certainly
have been several degrees colder given a similar situation in Victorian
times and for that matter the 1950s and 1960s. A max of 3C would have been
expected. Even now at 20.00hrs the mercury has risen and is 5C. The
trajectory of the air flow these days has a more westerly component and
seems to me to have backed about 30 degrees compared to bursts of cold in
the 1950s. Good examples I can cite and there were more are the third week
of Jan 1952 and around the 12th in Feb; mid Feb1953 and mid Feb 1955.; the
7th Feb 1958 and late Feb 1958, and mid Jan 1959. Feb 1956 was mostly north
easterly with its severe cold.
I
Still it proved quite a shock for many people after a max of 12C the
previous day and even more so for those in the vicinity of the Downs in the
Reigate area where snow lay 1 to 2cm deep around 08.00hrs this
morning.However it had melted by mid morning even at 230 metres.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon.


Depressing isn't it? This has happened soooo many times now, it can't
just be a "chance" happening - it really is warmer now, and those
Northerlies we used to have that delivered reliable snow at 0c, now
deliver sleet, hail and rain at 4 to 6c.

I am getting my old JVC tapes onto DVD (which is why the Barncam is
offline) and was looking at some tape I shot during the February
half-term 1996 (ie, just 9 years ago) where we had our last significant
snow event here in Norfolk. We had heavy drifting Snow on a strong
Northerly, and a max temp on the monday of 1c. Todays Northerly, quite
similar in look on the chart, delivered a max of 6c and rain/hail showers.

The lack of "bite" in these traditionally cold airflows is the biggest
giveaway to possible local effects of global warming I've yet seen.

--
Chris
www.ivy-house.net
Swaffham, Norfolk

I am getting my old JVC tapes onto DVD (which is why the Barncam is
offline) and was looking at some tape I shot during the February
half-term 1996 (ie, just 9 years ago) where we had our last
significant
snow event here in Norfolk.

Really? Haven't the last few 2000s winters - 2003, 2004, etc. -
delivered anything much for Norfolk? I always thought that they
affected the east side of the United Kingdom more?

What about the following 1997 winter? That winter would have been just
as cold as 1995 *if* the November of 1996 had occurred in, say, that
horribly mild February that we had in that following year?

D.

In article ,
Succorso writes:
Depressing isn't it? This has happened soooo many times now, it can't
just be a "chance" happening - it really is warmer now, and those
Northerlies we used to have that delivered reliable snow at 0c, now
deliver sleet, hail and rain at 4 to 6c.
snip

I guess that's what you'd expect if the ice edge is further north than
it used to be, and if the sea to the south of it is a degree or two
warmer. At least in the south, easterlies have always tended to be
colder than northerlies, and that may be more than ever the case now. Of
course, full-blown easterlues have been in very short supply in recent
years.

But take heart. In today's Sunday Telegraph, Philip Eden concludes his
piece by saying that he can see no reason why we shouldn't have a snowy
winter again one of these days.
--
John Hall
"Three o'clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do."
Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)

All of this fits in well with my memories. Another point is that during the
60's and 70's I can frequently remember several inches of snow here in the
S.E. from fronts coming in from the west and presumably hitting colder air.
(didn't study the charts so much then!). Then after several hours of snow it
would slowly turn to rain, become slushy and then remain mild -
6-7C, which would now be called bitterly cold! This usually left a day or so
of misty/damp conditions before the next weather type set in. This happened
most winters and wasn't taken too seriously because the snow was never going
to stick around, even if six inches deep. Different times now.

Dave

Different times now.

And still TOM PRESUTTI has the sheer NERVE to forecast HEAVY SNOW in
February, 2002!:-o ;-(

Apologise NOW, TOM!:-o :-(

D.

He's right, but we're talking decades\thousands of years even. Something
major on a Global scale needs to happen, which it will, but not for a long
time.

---------------------------------------------------------------

But take heart. In today's Sunday Telegraph, Philip Eden concludes his
piece by saying that he can see no reason why we shouldn't have a snowy
winter again one of these days.
--
John Hall
"Three o'clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do."
Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)

Ian. You just have to look back a year and Northerlies were significantly
different!
We had a number of outbreaks here, each giving significant snow, up to 6
inches.
The snowfall we have had this year has barely troubled the scorers.
Today is a case in point. The overnight low was 0.7c albeit with a strong
wind, and the morning started cold. There must have been some warmer air
aloft as we reached a suprisingly high 6.5c.
The showers didn't get going here until mid afternoon and were initially
rain, but sleet was observed with temp at 4c, the wind got up a lot as
well..
We've had some heavier showers this evening, of hail mainly and wet snow and
temp falling to 1.6c, but all in all a pretty poor Northerly.
Currently 2.1c, dew -1.9c, humidity 74%, 1016.9 rising slowly and a due
Northerly wind.

--
David Mitchell, 70m amsl, Langtoft, East Riding of Yorkshire.

Damien I cannot see my posting on the newsgroup - I thought it was lost in
cyber space so I'm pleased you have seen it.
February is still below average in rainfall and looks like staying that way
in the south this week. Sunshine has not been too far off the mark.
Temperature wise it is somewhat awry but again the inference was for high
pressure to be established to the west with some bursts of arctic air. The
cold air fizzled out somewhat in the south.
Actually one of the remarkable things at my station so far this month is the
lack of an air frost in the first 14 days.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon



"Damien" wrote in message
oups.com...
Mr. Currie!

Does the following look familiar?:

"February 05
COLD EARLY WITH SOME SNOW and cold late in month- mild mid month
average overall. Rainfall below par. Sunshine 10% up."

:-( :-(

Seriously, though, what happened?

When is the "Evaluation of Forecasts" section of your website going to
be updated as well? It hasn't been updated since last August!:-o :-(

D.