"Gianna" wrote in message
...

OK, sorry I should have digested the earlier part of the thread
more thoroughly.

However the only things different from the forecast in the press
release and the full forecast was the mention of the 'at least 70%'
probability and the mention of the UK.
And to be fair as this is the *UK* Met Office we are talking
about here so unless otherwise stated it is reasonable to
assume that the forecast would be for the UK.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Col wrote:
"Gianna" wrote in message
...

OK, sorry I should have digested the earlier part of the thread
more thoroughly.

No prob., all part of life's rich tapestry (-:

However the only things different from the forecast in the press
release and the full forecast was the mention of the 'at least 70%'
probability and the mention of the UK.

I felt that they could have put that into the release - they used 100 words on
the forecast and 207 on the other stuff. The release ought to have included the
key points. They were specific about the 1 in 8, but vague about that probability.

And to be fair as this is the *UK* Met Office we are talking
about here so unless otherwise stated it is reasonable to
assume that the forecast would be for the UK.

I thought so too but wondered if the comments were more reflective of recent
English summers, hence my objection to the 'similar to' part of the release. Up
here, 2006 was 'similar' to 05 and 04 (although a little warmer). I didn't
record 03 so should not comment (but it was rather nice).

Having done this to death, I can now reveal that it got a bit foggy here today,
so wasn't quite as toasty as recently ... a mere 14 and very little sun.
Sadly, I now have work to do ...

--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

In message , Gianna
writes
Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Apr 12, 12:08 am, "Tom Allen" wrote:
"Gianna" wrote in message

...

snippit 3) A high probability of exceeding the average ... how
snippithigh?

'At least 70 %' it says.

5) Where is the forecast for? The UK or England?
For the mean temps - 'Western Europe including the UK' it says
For an exceptionally hot summer - 'across the UK' it says.


I clicked on the link provided by the OP again just now, just in case I
had gone mad. I had not.

There is no mention in the release of the forecast being for the UK or
anywhere else.
There is no mention in the release of 70% in any context.

I quote:
"Met Office forecast for Summer 2007
The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals
that this summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.
Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007,
seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer
temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.
They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those
experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.
The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no
indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly
wet summer.
The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on
4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia,
stated that 2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going
back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.
Through the summer we can experience periods of very hot weather which
has implications for people's health. The Met Office works extensively
with the Department of Health (DoH) to raise awareness of how we can
protect ourselves in hot weather.
Each summer the Met Office and DoH operate a Heat-Health programme
aimed at alleviating the effects of the hottest weather on vulnerable
groups. During the 2003 heatwave there were more than 2,000 directly
attributed excess deaths in the UK and over 20,000 in France. Dr Tish
Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office is clear about what
the benefits of the service are, saying: “The very old and the very
young are particularly susceptible to extreme heat, particularly when
very warm nights prevent the body from recuperating from very hot days.
Also, people who suffer with breathing difficulties are likely to find
their symptoms heightened.�
The Met Office will issue an update of the summer forecast on 1 May 2007."


And for Col - I did read it properly - see above - did you? (-:

My points were meant to be taken together, particularly items 4, 5, and
6. If that was not obvious, then I am in error for not making it so
(corrected here).
Oh dear I am at risk again, can I get benefits? I love cold winters and
hot summers.
Do not tell DHSS though.
Maybe I can get compensation though - I mean it's the government's
fault!
Mind you I bet 'Green Dave' has a bigger heating bill than I do. While
our current beloved leader has created more contrails than is desirable.
The Office's forecast is so predictable that it is not really worth a
comment, although I do know that many people do badly suffer in the
heat.
May I suggest free summer ale for senior citizens?
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash