I am normally cynical but....
 

Over the last three days models have been consistent both with each
other and over time.
I would therefore say that the forecast late winter cold spell is on.
(Cold not severe).
Winds veering northeasterly? Is that realistic? With lambing about to
start I would say it is.
It would certainly be in line with the Office's forecast.
Why not-these forecasts have given me a late 'lift' anyway.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

I am normally cynical but....
 

Blimey * as he rubs his eyes again*
as i said over on TWO i remain sceptical after the last pile of
shenaligans, thus wont be beating my ramping drum till after Fridays
12z's

I am normally cynical but....
 

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Over the last three days models have been consistent both with each
other and over time.
I would therefore say that the forecast late winter cold spell is on.
(Cold not severe).
Winds veering northeasterly? Is that realistic? With lambing about to
start I would say it is.
It would certainly be in line with the Office's forecast.
Why not-these forecasts have given me a late 'lift' anyway.
Cheers
Paul

:-O

:-)

Paul, going for cold !!!!!!

Seriously, thanks Paul, it's nice to have your backing. Let's hope that it is
not too serious for the farmers and other folk who have to work outside in it.

Will.
--

I am normally cynical but....
 

"vince" wrote in message
ups.com...
Blimey * as he rubs his eyes again*
as i said over on TWO i remain sceptical after the last pile of
shenaligans, thus wont be beating my ramping drum till after Fridays
12z's


I'll be beating my drum come Monday!

Victor

I am normally cynical but....
 

So which recent event - though I am going from my memory he-) - do
YOU think that this cold snap will be nearest to? (Other posters who
are well-informed on this particular subject matter can answer this
question as well.:-)):
-1979 winter (surely not! NO man would be SO bold, surely not?:-o :-))
-December 1981 (easterly),
-February 1985 (easterly),
-February 1986 (easterly),
-January 1987 (easterly),
-February 1991 (easterly),
-November 1993 (north-east-easterly),
-February 1994 (easterly - second best winter memory of my life),
-December 1995 (easterly - the BEST winter memory of my life),
-February-March 1996 (easterly of sorts, though still moderately
memorable),
-November 1996 (unlikely - as that was a slow-tracking but a
nonetheless snowy SOUTHERLY),
-Christmas Eve 1996 (north-easterly),
-January 1997 (easterly),
-April(!) 1998 (unusually potent north-easterly),
-February 2001 (unlikely - as that was a NORTH-WESTERLY),
-New Years Eve, 2003 (unlikely - as that was also a NORTH-WESTERLY),
-January 2004 so-called "thundersnow"/nothing where I live event (hope
not:-(, for obvious reasons),

???

:-p

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"vince" wrote in message
ups.com...
Blimey * as he rubs his eyes again*
as i said over on TWO i remain sceptical after the last pile of
shenaligans, thus wont be beating my ramping drum till after Fridays
12z's


I'll be beating my drum come Monday!

Victor


You'll never make a weather forecaster Victor if you have to wait until the
weather happens before forecasting it !!!

Will.
--

I am normally cynical but....
 

Damien
I would say February-March 1996 as it stands at the mo

I am normally cynical but....
 

I would say February-March 1996 as it stands at the mo

Sweet....:-D

I was thinking more along the lines of December 1995, as that was an
easterly which had a slight north-easterly component to it.:-) Either
would suit me though.

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

What was so special about Feb/March '96 ?, in the SouthEast anyway ...

RonB
"vince" wrote in message
ups.com...
Damien
I would say February-March 1996 as it stands at the mo

I am normally cynical but....
 

Not December '81 . Was a true Arctic source, though, of course the winds
were easterly at times.

---------------------------------------------------------------
"Damien" wrote in message
oups.com...
I would say February-March 1996 as it stands at the mo

Sweet....:-D

I was thinking more along the lines of December 1995, as that was an
easterly which had a slight north-easterly component to it.:-) Either
would suit me though.

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

Danny:

Not December '81 . Was a true Arctic source, though, of course the
winds
were easterly at times.

Then why were northerlies so good then, and not so good now, à la the
"winter" of 2004?

Is this maybe where that age-old but now long-discredit phrase "When
the north wind doth blow, there will be snow" comes from?


Ron:

What was so special about Feb/March '96 ?, in the SouthEast anyway
....

Yes - which is odd, because the South-East seems to be going to bear
the BRUNT of this coming *POSSIBLE* cold snap, which is unusual, as the
South-East, I hear, generally missed out on such fun during the
aforementioned 1996 cold spell.:-( :-)

It's length was awfully impressive though, certainly up here,
especially what given the previous MILDER winters.:-o :-p

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

Ron
if my memory is correct a trough swung sw wards from Norway on the
evening of the 22feb ? though snow amounts were small 5-7 cm in the
strong ne winds it piled up reasonably ,as it was the powdery sort, i
think that spell lasted a week (bucks/beds area) I wonder if Philip
Eden recalls this as he lives local
ATB

I am normally cynical but....
 

I was thinking more along the lines of December 1995, as that was an
easterly which had a slight north-easterly component to it.:-) Either
would suit me though.


Damien this spell was a non starter, ok, was cold but the snow that
fell was of the granular sort, flurries as the MO would describe.
Vince

I am normally cynical but....
 

Damien this spell was a non starter, ok, was cold but the snow that
fell was of the granular sort, flurries as the MO would describe.

Tell that to Huddersfield/Halifax on December 6, 1995.:-p ;-)

This cold snap is/was/will always be my immortal definition of
"snow".:-) :-p

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

In article . com,
vince writes:
if my memory is correct a trough swung sw wards from Norway on the
evening of the 22feb ? though snow amounts were small 5-7 cm in the
strong ne winds it piled up reasonably ,as it was the powdery sort, i
think that spell lasted a week (bucks/beds area) I wonder if Philip
Eden recalls this as he lives local

From Weather Log for February, 1996, compiled by none other than Philip
Eden: "On the 18th, a vigorous depression tracked south-eastwards from
Scotland to north Germany, and a very strong northerly airflow swept
across the country in its wake. It became very cold with snow showers
over the next four days, with a period of heavier drifting snow across
eastern, central and southern England overnight 19th/20th. Rain,
preceded by snow, spread slowly from the north-west during the 21st and
22nd, introducing a thaw."

The headline for the month as a whole was: "Rather cold, frequent snow,
very sunny."
--
John Hall
"Home is heaven and orgies are vile,
But you *need* an orgy, once in a while."
Ogden Nash (1902-1971)

I am normally cynical but....
 

if my memory is correct a trough swung sw wards from Norway on the
evening of the 22feb ? though snow amounts were small 5-7 cm in the
strong ne winds it piled up reasonably ,as it was the powdery sort

Damn you guys really were unlucky in that winter!:-o :-(

Up here, we were talking 5-7 INCHES!:-o :-(

Then again, you laugh now, after 2003, 2004, etc..

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

Quoting from message
posted on 16 Feb 2005 by Paul Bartlett
I would like to add:


Winds veering northeasterly? Is that realistic? With lambing about to
start I would say it is.

Has to be a reason for "lambing storms" being so-called, may be known as
something else in your area.

--
....ElaineJ... Briallen Gifts/Cards catalogue at http://www.briallen.co.uk
....Kinetic... Corn Dollies, Cards, Coasters, Mousemats, Kids' Tshirts
...StrongArm.. Jones' Pages at http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/ejones
....RISC PC... Corwen, North Wales; Steam Traction;CMMGB&Yukon Volunteers.

I am normally cynical but....
 

Will Hand wrote:
"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...

Over the last three days models have been consistent both with each
other and over time.
I would therefore say that the forecast late winter cold spell is on.
(Cold not severe).
Winds veering northeasterly? Is that realistic? With lambing about to
start I would say it is.
It would certainly be in line with the Office's forecast.
Why not-these forecasts have given me a late 'lift' anyway.
Cheers
Paul


:-O

:-)

Paul, going for cold !!!!!!

Seriously, thanks Paul, it's nice to have your backing. Let's hope that it is
not too serious for the farmers and other folk who have to work outside in it.

It could be serious for some of them. Some farmers are already lambing
(some even start in December). One of my neighbours started last week
and has a total of 500 ewes to lamb; most of them outside. It is not
looking good for them. I'm OK as my little flock is now inside, where
they will start lambing from mid March.

--
Howard Neil

I am normally cynical but....
 

Seriously, thanks Paul, it's nice to have your backing. Let's hope that it is
not too serious for the farmers and other folk who have to work outside in it.

Will.

Yes looks like some classic lambing weather :-( My dad lambs indoors
nowadays thank goodness...

What could be interesting is the interaction with a population no
longer used to snow,, ie driving problems and the stupidity of walking
home drunk in very cold conditions.

The next severe spell in England is going to be a problem. I remember
as I left last year a small fall in Birmingham caused 8 hour delays in
the rush hour.

Richard Webb

I am normally cynical but....
 

Grilled lambsteaks are delicious meat.;-)

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

Looks like my timing was perfect, off to the south of France fo 10 days on
sunday, can you all arrange it so its mild when i get back please::))

Annie

"Damien" wrote in message
ups.com...
Grilled lambsteaks are delicious meat.;-)

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

I'd say the January 2004 one.. I would suspect that a lot of the country
will get snow, but you will most certainly miss out..

"Damien" wrote in message
oups.com...
So which recent event - though I am going from my memory he-) - do
YOU think that this cold snap will be nearest to? (Other posters who
are well-informed on this particular subject matter can answer this
question as well.:-)):
-1979 winter (surely not! NO man would be SO bold, surely not?:-o :-))
-December 1981 (easterly),
-February 1985 (easterly),
-February 1986 (easterly),
-January 1987 (easterly),
-February 1991 (easterly),
-November 1993 (north-east-easterly),
-February 1994 (easterly - second best winter memory of my life),
-December 1995 (easterly - the BEST winter memory of my life),
-February-March 1996 (easterly of sorts, though still moderately
memorable),
-November 1996 (unlikely - as that was a slow-tracking but a
nonetheless snowy SOUTHERLY),
-Christmas Eve 1996 (north-easterly),
-January 1997 (easterly),
-April(!) 1998 (unusually potent north-easterly),
-February 2001 (unlikely - as that was a NORTH-WESTERLY),
-New Years Eve, 2003 (unlikely - as that was also a NORTH-WESTERLY),
-January 2004 so-called "thundersnow"/nothing where I live event (hope
not:-(, for obvious reasons),

???

:-p

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

In message , Paul Bartlett
writes
Winds veering northeasterly? Is that realistic? With lambing about to
start I would say it is.
It would certainly be in line with the Office's forecast.
Why not-these forecasts have given me a late 'lift' anyway.
Cheers
Paul


Does the prospect of innocent lambs fighting for life in your wankfest
cold spell give you a kick then?



--
Bill

I am normally cynical but....
 

In message , Will Hand
writes
"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Over the last three days models have been consistent both with each
other and over time.
I would therefore say that the forecast late winter cold spell is on.
(Cold not severe).
Winds veering northeasterly? Is that realistic? With lambing about to
start I would say it is.
It would certainly be in line with the Office's forecast.
Why not-these forecasts have given me a late 'lift' anyway.
Cheers
Paul

:-O

:-)

Paul, going for cold !!!!!!

Seriously, thanks Paul, it's nice to have your backing. Let's hope that it is
not too serious for the farmers and other folk who have to work outside in it.

Will.
--


Oh yeah you really mean that too. Do you have a clue plonk? Good
weather forecaster maybe, but real life? No idea............plonk.
--
Bill

I am normally cynical but....
 

"Bill" wrote in message
...
In message , Paul Bartlett
writes
Winds veering northeasterly? Is that realistic? With lambing about to
start I would say it is.
It would certainly be in line with the Office's forecast.
Why not-these forecasts have given me a late 'lift' anyway.
Cheers
Paul


Does the prospect of innocent lambs fighting for life in your wankfest
cold spell give you a kick then?



--
Bill

This will hardly be the first time we've had a cold spell in late
February...

I am normally cynical but....
 

Feb 1985 lives in the memory; 8 inches of snow in about 4 hours in
Plymouth on a weekday as a low tracked up the English Channel trying to push
"up" against the cold air. All shops,schools and many places of work shut up
shop early afternoon. Result: every main road became blocked with cars, many
eventually abandoned, gritters and snowploughs unable to clear the roads.
Total chaos. Walk home from work.

This could happen later next week in the South.





"Damien" wrote in message
oups.com...
So which recent event - though I am going from my memory he-) - do
YOU think that this cold snap will be nearest to? (Other posters who
are well-informed on this particular subject matter can answer this
question as well.:-)):
-1979 winter (surely not! NO man would be SO bold, surely not?:-o :-))
-December 1981 (easterly),
-February 1985 (easterly),
-February 1986 (easterly),
-January 1987 (easterly),
-February 1991 (easterly),
-November 1993 (north-east-easterly),
-February 1994 (easterly - second best winter memory of my life),
-December 1995 (easterly - the BEST winter memory of my life),
-February-March 1996 (easterly of sorts, though still moderately
memorable),
-November 1996 (unlikely - as that was a slow-tracking but a
nonetheless snowy SOUTHERLY),
-Christmas Eve 1996 (north-easterly),
-January 1997 (easterly),
-April(!) 1998 (unusually potent north-easterly),
-February 2001 (unlikely - as that was a NORTH-WESTERLY),
-New Years Eve, 2003 (unlikely - as that was also a NORTH-WESTERLY),
-January 2004 so-called "thundersnow"/nothing where I live event (hope
not:-(, for obvious reasons),

???

:-p

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

This will hardly be the first time we've had a cold spell in late
February...

But it WILL be the first time in a LONG time though....:-o :-( A REAL
long time.:-(

:-(

D.

I am normally cynical but....
 

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"vince" wrote in message
ups.com...
Blimey * as he rubs his eyes again*
as i said over on TWO i remain sceptical after the last pile of
shenaligans, thus wont be beating my ramping drum till after Fridays
12z's


I'll be beating my drum come Monday!

Victor



They can't touch you for it.

I am normally cynical but....
 

"lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"vince" wrote in message
ups.com...
Blimey * as he rubs his eyes again*
as i said over on TWO i remain sceptical after the last pile of
shenaligans, thus wont be beating my ramping drum till after Fridays
12z's


I'll be beating my drum come Monday!

Victor



They can't touch you for it.


They can: Drum beating tax - £1 per beat ;-)

--
Joe
Wolverhampton