"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in
:

intensity and aerial coverage
^^^^

Correction : I think that should be "areal" rather than the TV variety
:-)

Jon.

Actually you were right the first time with "aerial".

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

Pity my poor aunt from Spain who's in Bournemouth for 10 days. I did
suggest
she didn't bother coming ! At least Tuesday's looking like a nice day :-)

Jon.

----------------------
Ditto my sister-in-law from Macau - she is always a good drought buster for
me!
Dave

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in
message
. uk...


Thanks Jon - I know it's difficult at the moment. It has just felt
things
have conspired against me! Been expecting heavy showers all week that
have
just missed me, often by just a mile or so, which is of course the
nature
of
showers. Fed up watering the garden every night! Today I do feel the
forecast given out has turned out wrong in terms of the timing.

Guess it depends which forecast you've seen, I tend to only look at the
TAFs
! Either way I think it's fair to say that getting the timing and detail
correct in the south today has been tricky, particulalry with respect to
the
intensity and aerial coverage of the rain/showers in the SE. The midday
ASXX
shows an upper warm front just off the south coast at midday with the
somewhat complex development in the channel which is causing the problems
http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf000.gif
The upper warm front accounting for much of the medium and upper cloud
layers across the SE which until recently had given mostly light patchy
rain, although some heavier convective elements were in evidence earlier
to
the north of London. Less in the way of this upper and medium cloud would
likely have resulted in more significant showers as seen to the north and
west.

Looking ahead the midday GFS shows the potential for some very high totals
on the slow moving occlusion tomorrow as per the early warning. However I
suspect the inter-run and inter-model differences we're seeing regarding
the
handling of it will be causing further headaches.

GFS 3hour totals to 15Z on Monday http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

Pity my poor aunt from Spain who's in Bournemouth for 10 days. I did
suggest
she didn't bother coming ! At least Tuesday's looking like a nice day :-)

Jon.


Drove from Wokingham to Belmont (S London), M3/M25 between 11 and 12z, and
encountered very heavy rain in places, and plenty of water on the roads,
likewise on return 18-1930z, in addition low cloud down on the Downs near
Riegate.

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.woksat.info/wwp.html
or
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
. uk...

| Thanks Jon - I know it's difficult at the moment. It has just felt things
| have conspired against me! Been expecting heavy showers all week that have
| just missed me, often by just a mile or so, which is of course the nature
of
| showers. Fed up watering the garden every night! Today I do feel the
| forecast given out has turned out wrong in terms of the timing. I know,
like
| me, several people had heard it was going to set in for the day once it
| started but there seems to have been an unexpected 8 hour dry interlude. I
| would have played cricket in this as time is running out for me! Anyway,
| looks like my garden will finally get watered tonight...
|

You have my sympathies...

After 30 years of umpiring for my club (Cadnam C.C.), I decided (at the age
of 49) to take up the game and have a few seasons while I was still young
enough to play.

I have been selected for 6 "friendly" matches so far, played 3, just one
bat. With nearly half the season gone, I have the bizarre record of having
taken more catches for my club than runs scored! Even the practice evenings
are being rained off now, so I cannot even work on improving my game.

Who needs to water the garden round here? We have already had over 100 mm
this month, as we did last month, and so far this year we have already had
nearly 70% of the expected *annual* rainfall for this part of the world,
with supposedly the wettest part of the year still to come and after one
month (April) with only 1mm recorded. The only "ducks" to be seen at our
cricket ground at the moment have feathers and webbed feet.

If it is going to carry on like this, I shall be tempted to use "e-bay" to
recover some of the money I have spent on cricket kit, then take up bowls...
--
- Yokel -
oo oo
OOO OOO
OO 0 OO
) ( I ) (
) ( /\ ) (
Yokel @ Ashurst New Forest
SU 336 107 17m a.s.l.

"Yokel" now posts via a spam-trap account.
Replace my alias with stevejudd to reply.

"Dave Cornwell" wrote...
|
| "Jon O'Rourke" wrote...
| "Dave Cornwell" wrote ...
| Having cancelled our cricket match on the strength of the Countryfile
and
| News 24 forecasts of up to 40-60 mm rain for S.E and East Anglia I see
| the
| Met Office have just downgraded our risk area from 70% to 20% at
| 13.34hrs.
| The skies are quite bright here after 2mm of earlier rain. Obviously
| ditched
| the expensive computer and looked out of the window.The accuracy of
these
| now forecasts are astounding.
| Dave, S.Essex
|
| Dave, I haven't seen the TV forecasts but notice you seem to be quoting
| the
| early warning which is valid from 2100Z this evening right through until
| 2300Z on Monday
| http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._warnings.html
| The nowcasting aspect tends to be more concerned with the short period
and
| flash warnings.
|
| ...
|
| Sorry to hear about your cricket match, but would you have played in the
| showery rain so far today ?
|
| Jon.
|
| ---------------------------
| Thanks Jon - I know it's difficult at the moment. It has just felt things
| have conspired against me! Been expecting heavy showers all week that have
| just missed me, often by just a mile or so, which is of course the nature
of
| showers. Fed up watering the garden every night! Today I do feel the
| forecast given out has turned out wrong in terms of the timing. I know,
like
| me, several people had heard it was going to set in for the day once it
| started but there seems to have been an unexpected 8 hour dry interlude. I
| would have played cricket in this as time is running out for me! Anyway,
| looks like my garden will finally get watered tonight...
|
|


You have my sympathies...

After 30+ years of umpiring for my club (Cadnam C.C.), I decided (at the age
of 49) to take up the game and have a few seasons while I was still young
enough to play.

I have been selected for 6 "friendly" matches so far, played 3, just one
bat. With nearly half the season gone, I have the bizarre record of having
taken more catches for my club than runs scored! Even the practice evenings
are being rained off now, so I cannot even work on improving my game.

Who needs to water the garden round here? We have already had over 100 mm
this month, as we did last month, and so far this year we have already had
nearly 70% of the expected *annual* rainfall for this part of the world,
with supposedly the wettest part of the year still to come and after one
month (April) with only 1mm recorded. The only "ducks" to be seen at our
cricket ground at the moment have feathers and webbed feet.

If it is going to carry on like this, I shall be tempted to use "e-bay" to
recover some of the money I have spent on cricket kit, then take up bowls...
--
- Yokel -
oo oo
OOO OOO
OO 0 OO
) ( I ) (
) ( /\ ) (
Yokel @ Ashurst New Forest
SU 336 107 17m a.s.l.

"Yokel" now posts via a spam-trap account.
Replace my alias with stevejudd to reply.