Weather Action published a rather dramatic forecast on the 16th
October. The full text can be read in a post by Steve Schulin on the
17th in this newsgroup entitled ... " Solar Weather Technique
forecasts: massive storms to hit Britain and Europe (Oct 26-31, Nov
8-13 and Nov 24-28) ".

I have monitored the day-to-day weather, particularly with respect to
wind speeds, for the first 'phase' of this forecast, and the summary
is below. Here is the Weather Action forecast relevant to that
particular period:......


quote
The three periods for which Weather Action are 90% confident there
will be severe damaging storms:

* October 26th to 31st or Nov 1st. Storm gusts of 80 to 100mph in
places. This is likely to be a major storm period but probably only a
'warm-up' for what is to come in November. It is good there is now no
election (eg on Nov 1st ) because the election period would have been
severely disrupted (NB warning of the storms was passed on to the
Labour leadership). The storm will track East and likely (80%
confident) affect Holland, Denmark, South Norway, South Sweden and
parts of North Germany.
/quote

And this is my view of the period:-

.... Given the 'tone' of the forecast (above), which implied (from the
general heading) a "severe damaging storm", then emergency planners
and others tasked with forward planning for public safety would have
felt let down - not only that, there would have been some considerable
expense to provide the manpower & equipment necessary to cover such an
event. Only one location recorded gusts in excess of 80 mph, and that
was an uninhabited island off the far north of Scotland. All other
wind reports were well within the 'normal envelope' of expectations
for a late October, unsettled period. In particular, the mention of
the 'possible' election being "severely disrupted" was grossly wide of
the mark. There was nothing to suggest that the final week of such a
campaign, or the election day itself would have been affected in any
way.

Two points to make:-
(1): Anyone with any appropriate knowledge could have produced a
forecast for this period on that date from *conventional* NWP output,
e.g., GFS deterministic, GFES (ensemble), EC (ensemble & monthly
anomaly forecasts) and MetO monthly anomaly forecasts. Solar
techniques were not required, and indeed as the summary shows above,
appear to lead to false conclusions. In particular, the GFS
deterministic output 'flagged' the marked drive eastwards & southwards
of a powerful jet 25/26 October very well at least 10 days in advance.
(2): The 'disturbed' period is well within the change to potentially
cyclonic / stormy conditions found by various workers for NW Europe
(for example, Brooks & Lamb for the British Isles).
http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weathe...o/singular.htm

Here is a day-by-day summary:

26th: This was the most 'active' day of this period, when a
well-marked baroclinic zone, with associated surface cold front,
crossed erratically from the WNW. The low-level flow was already
strong to gale-force in the warm air ahead of the cold front north of
about Galway Bay, and minor waves on the cold front enhanced the
gradient as the front moved east. By far the strongest wind was
recorded on the isolated island of North Rona (well away from the
Scottish north coast), with a 'Storm 10' at both 00Z and 06Z. The
highest gust I have available for this spot, and the highest
*anywhere* in our immediate area of interest (limited data to me) is
74 knots (~85 mph) at 06Z. However, it is important to note that North
Rona is NOT '10 m' representative; as a rough guide, the mean speeds
should be reduced by a factor of 0.8. Elsewhere on this day, gales
(defined either by mean speed or gusts, the latter as used in
preparing a Shipping Forecast), affected exposed locations across the
western & northern islands off Scotland, as well as coastal SW Norway.
By 18Z, as far as I could tell, wind strengths were below gale-force
over much of the area of NW maritime Europe south of 62N and between
20E and 10W, with the exception of the very exposed islands in North
Utsire (sea area).

27th: By 06Z on this day, a rapidly moving wave depression was heading
smartly ENE, crossing the Hebrides ~14Z/15Z, and ended up in the
southern Norwegian Sea by 2359Z that day; another small 'hesitation'
developed on the cold front during the evening. This was a 'classic'
cold-frontal wave, beloved of text books, which markedly increased the
gradient in the warm air over the British Isles and adjacent areas. No
gales at first, but isolated gales observed by 06Z around SW Norway,
and then more generally around northern and some western waters (of
the British Isles) during the afternoon. From the limited data I have,
the strongest gusts (excluding North Rona) were around 47 kn, for
Lerwick & Belmullet at least.

28th: By 06Z, the cold front was now transitting Britain from the NW,
introducing gale, or near-gale strengths to exposed SW coasts /
islands of Britain as well as over coastal South & SW Norway; there
was an isolated 'Severe Gale' using the gust criterion in the latter
area, e.g. Bergen 18037G52. Also, the Shipping Forecaster's nightmare,
a gale or near-gale (especially using the gust strength) through the
Dover Strait and along exposed coasts of Belgium & the Netherlands. By
midday, isolated gustiness would have 'verified' gales exposed
headlands / islands central & eastern English Channel & the southern
North Sea. Gales also around the exposed coasts & islands of Jutland,
the far south of Norway and southern Sweden, though gusts were
generally no worse than 52 kn, and for the most part 'windy' would
have covered the story. By that evening, the gradient had eased
sufficiently, and no gales were observed in our area.

29th: Classic cold-air (Polar Maritime) gustiness across northern
waters (including coasts / islands of Northern Britain & SW Norway) -
some close to gale (i.e. 43 kn), but generally just a decent blowy
day.

30th: Although rain proved a problem to areas on the continent, no
gales could be found this day.

31st: Strong westerly flow in the open warm sector affecting northern
Britain & eventually Southern Norway. By 06Z, gales were setting in
across sea areas off northern Scotland / around Northern Isles (but
mainly because of the gust strength, e.g. Lerwick gusts = 43kn),
extending to the exposed SW Norwegian coast / islands. (Once again
North Rona stands out as anomalous: At 07Z, 240/43, gust 51kn, 08Z
240/42G50, 09Z 240/41G51. By midday, the situation had changed little,
with gusts generally in these parts just into the 'gale' category,
with Fair Isle (at 11Z) 230/34G48. Gales (by mean speeds or gusts) now
more general along exposed Norwegian coasts north of roughly 61N.
However, this was a short-lived blow (typical of autumn) and by early
evening, gales were generally absent.

1st: No gales, though the low level flow was strong, slightly
anticyclonically curved over northern Britain & northern Ireland, with
and even stronger flow crossing southern Norway & south Sweden for a
time. The wind eased through the afternoon fairly generally.

General remarks: Apart from delay/cancellation to ferry traffic and
possible cancellation of some inter-island flights during the windier
periods, no 'significant' disruption was noted due to the wind. As
regards the bit of the forecast relating to a 'General Election' in
the UK, there was nothing in the weather type that would have had any
adverse impact on campaign or voting, indeed it could be argued that
over England and Wales, where the important seats would be fought for
(for a Westminster parliament), then the weather was near ideal!

My working notes can be seen at:-

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and much of the station data for these summaries has been taken from:-

http://www.ogimet.com/index.phtml.en


Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

On 1 Nov, 21:11, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
Weather Action published a rather dramatic forecast on the 16th
October. The full text can be read in a post by Steve Schulin on the
17th in this newsgroup entitled ... " Solar Weather Technique
forecasts: massive storms to hit Britain and Europe (Oct 26-31, Nov
8-13 and Nov 24-28) ".

I have monitored the day-to-day weather, particularly with respect to
wind speeds, for the first 'phase' of this forecast, and the summary
is below. Here is the Weather Action forecast relevant to that
particular period:......

quote
The three periods for which Weather Action are 90% confident there
will be severe damaging storms:

* October 26th to 31st or Nov 1st. Storm gusts of 80 to 100mph in
places. This is likely to be a major storm period but probably only a
'warm-up' for what is to come in November. It is good there is now no
election (eg on Nov 1st ) because the election period would have been
severely disrupted (NB warning of the storms was passed on to the
Labour leadership). The storm will track East and likely (80%
confident) affect Holland, Denmark, South Norway, South Sweden and
parts of North Germany.
/quote

And this is my view of the period:-

... Given the 'tone' of the forecast (above), which implied (from the
general heading) a "severe damaging storm", then emergency planners
and others tasked with forward planning for public safety would have
felt let down - not only that, there would have been some considerable
expense to provide the manpower & equipment necessary to cover such an
event. Only one location recorded gusts in excess of 80 mph, and that
was an uninhabited island off the far north of Scotland. All other
wind reports were well within the 'normal envelope' of expectations
for a late October, unsettled period. In particular, the mention of
the 'possible' election being "severely disrupted" was grossly wide of
the mark. There was nothing to suggest that the final week of such a
campaign, or the election day itself would have been affected in any
way.

Two points to make:-
(1): Anyone with any appropriate knowledge could have produced a
forecast for this period on that date from *conventional* NWP output,
e.g., GFS deterministic, GFES (ensemble), EC (ensemble & monthly
anomaly forecasts) and MetO monthly anomaly forecasts. Solar
techniques were not required, and indeed as the summary shows above,
appear to lead to false conclusions. In particular, the GFS
deterministic output 'flagged' the marked drive eastwards & southwards
of a powerful jet 25/26 October very well at least 10 days in advance.
(2): The 'disturbed' period is well within the change to potentially
cyclonic / stormy conditions found by various workers for NW Europe
(for example, Brooks & Lamb for the British Isles).http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weathe...o/singular.htm

Here is a day-by-day summary:

26th: This was the most 'active' day of this period, when a
well-marked baroclinic zone, with associated surface cold front,
crossed erratically from the WNW. The low-level flow was already
strong to gale-force in the warm air ahead of the cold front north of
about Galway Bay, and minor waves on the cold front enhanced the
gradient as the front moved east. By far the strongest wind was
recorded on the isolated island of North Rona (well away from the
Scottish north coast), with a 'Storm 10' at both 00Z and 06Z. The
highest gust I have available for this spot, and the highest
*anywhere* in our immediate area of interest (limited data to me) is
74 knots (~85 mph) at 06Z. However, it is important to note that North
Rona is NOT '10 m' representative; as a rough guide, the mean speeds
should be reduced by a factor of 0.8. Elsewhere on this day, gales
(defined either by mean speed or gusts, the latter as used in
preparing a Shipping Forecast), affected exposed locations across the
western & northern islands off Scotland, as well as coastal SW Norway.
By 18Z, as far as I could tell, wind strengths were below gale-force
over much of the area of NW maritime Europe south of 62N and between
20E and 10W, with the exception of the very exposed islands in North
Utsire (sea area).

27th: By 06Z on this day, a rapidly moving wave depression was heading
smartly ENE, crossing the Hebrides ~14Z/15Z, and ended up in the
southern Norwegian Sea by 2359Z that day; another small 'hesitation'
developed on the cold front during the evening. This was a 'classic'
cold-frontal wave, beloved of text books, which markedly increased the
gradient in the warm air over the British Isles and adjacent areas. No
gales at first, but isolated gales observed by 06Z around SW Norway,
and then more generally around northern and some western waters (of
the British Isles) during the afternoon. From the limited data I have,
the strongest gusts (excluding North Rona) were around 47 kn, for
Lerwick & Belmullet at least.

28th: By 06Z, the cold front was now transitting Britain from the NW,
introducing gale, or near-gale strengths to exposed SW coasts /
islands of Britain as well as over coastal South & SW Norway; there
was an isolated 'Severe Gale' using the gust criterion in the latter
area, e.g. Bergen 18037G52. Also, the Shipping Forecaster's nightmare,
a gale or near-gale (especially using the gust strength) through the
Dover Strait and along exposed coasts of Belgium & the Netherlands. By
midday, isolated gustiness would have 'verified' gales exposed
headlands / islands central & eastern English Channel & the southern
North Sea. Gales also around the exposed coasts & islands of Jutland,
the far south of Norway and southern Sweden, though gusts were
generally no worse than 52 kn, and for the most part 'windy' would
have covered the story. By that evening, the gradient had eased
sufficiently, and no gales were observed in our area.

29th: Classic cold-air (Polar Maritime) gustiness across northern
waters (including coasts / islands of Northern Britain & SW Norway) -
some close to gale (i.e. 43 kn), but generally just a decent blowy
day.

30th: Although rain proved a problem to areas on the continent, no
gales could be found this day.

31st: Strong westerly flow in the open warm sector affecting northern
Britain & eventually Southern Norway. By 06Z, gales were setting in
across sea areas off northern Scotland / around Northern Isles (but
mainly because of the gust strength, e.g. Lerwick gusts = 43kn),
extending to the exposed SW Norwegian coast / islands. (Once again
North Rona stands out as anomalous: At 07Z, 240/43, gust 51kn, 08Z
240/42G50, 09Z 240/41G51. By midday, the situation had changed little,
with gusts generally in these parts just into the 'gale' category,
with Fair Isle (at 11Z) 230/34G48. Gales (by mean speeds or gusts) now
more general along exposed Norwegian coasts north of roughly 61N.
However, this was a short-lived blow (typical of autumn) and by early
evening, gales were generally absent.

1st: No gales, though the low level flow was strong, slightly
anticyclonically curved over northern Britain & northern Ireland, with
and even stronger flow crossing southern Norway & south Sweden for a
time. The wind eased through the afternoon fairly generally.

General remarks: Apart from delay/cancellation to ferry traffic and
possible cancellation of some inter-island flights during the windier
periods, no 'significant' disruption was noted due to the wind. As
regards the bit of the forecast relating to a 'General Election' in
the UK, there was nothing in the weather type that would have had any
adverse impact on campaign or voting, indeed it could be argued that
over England and Wales, where the important seats would be fought for
(for a Westminster parliament), then the weather was near ideal!

My working notes can be seen at:-

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and much of the station data for these summaries has been taken from:-

http://www.ogimet.com/index.phtml.en

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk


Excellent work, Martin. Puts my work on max gusts to shame...

Yes -----you keep on putting these so called holistic forecasters to shame
..Note ,they are always quiet after a real cock up like this one, they only
open their mouths if by chance they get extreme weather right ,and I can do
that by sheer luck and I charge nothing .

On Nov 2, 1:35 am, "jim beam" sputnick wrote:

Yes -----you keep on putting these so called holistic forecasters to shame
.Note, they are always quiet after a real cock up like this one, they only
open their mouths if by chance they get extreme weather right ,and I can do
that by sheer luck and I charge nothing .

Cock up? Mexico floods and Californian fires and all the other stuff?
It left me stranded and breathless a couple of times although of
course it came around to my way of thinking at the appointed time.

Nothing to do with solar storms in my case; though of course I have
not really thrown any of my immense weight into that theatre yet. I
have stated that the way that stars are powered is nothing to do with
fusion or fission and of course I know what is causing their immense
and apparently endless powering.

As you'd expect.

Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater you afterbirth.

On Nov 1, 9:11 pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
Weather Action published a rather dramatic forecast on the 16th
October. The full text can be read in a post by Steve Schulin on the
17th in this newsgroup entitled ... " Solar Weather Technique
forecasts: massive storms to hit Britain and Europe (Oct 26-31, Nov
8-13 and Nov 24-28) ".

I have monitored the day-to-day weather, particularly with respect to
wind speeds, for the first 'phase' of this forecast, and the summary
is below. Here is the Weather Action forecast relevant to that
particular period:......

quote
The three periods for which Weather Action are 90% confident there
will be severe damaging storms:

* October 26th to 31st or Nov 1st. Storm gusts of 80 to 100mph in
places. This is likely to be a major storm period but probably only a
'warm-up' for what is to come in November. It is good there is now no
election (eg on Nov 1st ) because the election period would have been
severely disrupted (NB warning of the storms was passed on to the
Labour leadership). The storm will track East and likely (80%
confident) affect Holland, Denmark, South Norway, South Sweden and
parts of North Germany.
/quote

And this is my view of the period:-

... Given the 'tone' of the forecast (above), which implied (from the
general heading) a "severe damaging storm", then emergency planners
and others tasked with forward planning for public safety would have
felt let down - not only that, there would have been some considerable
expense to provide the manpower & equipment necessary to cover such an
event. Only one location recorded gusts in excess of 80 mph, and that
was an uninhabited island off the far north of Scotland. All other
wind reports were well within the 'normal envelope' of expectations
for a late October, unsettled period. In particular, the mention of
the 'possible' election being "severely disrupted" was grossly wide of
the mark. There was nothing to suggest that the final week of such a
campaign, or the election day itself would have been affected in any
way.

Two points to make:-
(1): Anyone with any appropriate knowledge could have produced a
forecast for this period on that date from *conventional* NWP output,
e.g., GFS deterministic, GFES (ensemble), EC (ensemble & monthly
anomaly forecasts) and MetO monthly anomaly forecasts. Solar
techniques were not required, and indeed as the summary shows above,
appear to lead to false conclusions. In particular, the GFS
deterministic output 'flagged' the marked drive eastwards & southwards
of a powerful jet 25/26 October very well at least 10 days in advance.
(2): The 'disturbed' period is well within the change to potentially
cyclonic / stormy conditions found by various workers for NW Europe
(for example, Brooks & Lamb for the British Isles).http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weathe...o/singular.htm

Here is a day-by-day summary:

26th: This was the most 'active' day of this period, when a
well-marked baroclinic zone, with associated surface cold front,
crossed erratically from the WNW. The low-level flow was already
strong to gale-force in the warm air ahead of the cold front north of
about Galway Bay, and minor waves on the cold front enhanced the
gradient as the front moved east. By far the strongest wind was
recorded on the isolated island of North Rona (well away from the
Scottish north coast), with a 'Storm 10' at both 00Z and 06Z. The
highest gust I have available for this spot, and the highest
*anywhere* in our immediate area of interest (limited data to me) is
74 knots (~85 mph) at 06Z. However, it is important to note that North
Rona is NOT '10 m' representative; as a rough guide, the mean speeds
should be reduced by a factor of 0.8. Elsewhere on this day, gales
(defined either by mean speed or gusts, the latter as used in
preparing a Shipping Forecast), affected exposed locations across the
western & northern islands off Scotland, as well as coastal SW Norway.
By 18Z, as far as I could tell, wind strengths were below gale-force
over much of the area of NW maritime Europe south of 62N and between
20E and 10W, with the exception of the very exposed islands in North
Utsire (sea area).

27th: By 06Z on this day, a rapidly moving wave depression was heading
smartly ENE, crossing the Hebrides ~14Z/15Z, and ended up in the
southern Norwegian Sea by 2359Z that day; another small 'hesitation'
developed on the cold front during the evening. This was a 'classic'
cold-frontal wave, beloved of text books, which markedly increased the
gradient in the warm air over the British Isles and adjacent areas. No
gales at first, but isolated gales observed by 06Z around SW Norway,
and then more generally around northern and some western waters (of
the British Isles) during the afternoon. From the limited data I have,
the strongest gusts (excluding North Rona) were around 47 kn, for
Lerwick & Belmullet at least.

28th: By 06Z, the cold front was now transitting Britain from the NW,
introducing gale, or near-gale strengths to exposed SW coasts /
islands of Britain as well as over coastal South & SW Norway; there
was an isolated 'Severe Gale' using the gust criterion in the latter
area, e.g. Bergen 18037G52. Also, the Shipping Forecaster's nightmare,
a gale or near-gale (especially using the gust strength) through the
Dover Strait and along exposed coasts of Belgium & the Netherlands. By
midday, isolated gustiness would have 'verified' gales exposed
headlands / islands central & eastern English Channel & the southern
North Sea. Gales also around the exposed coasts & islands of Jutland,
the far south of Norway and southern Sweden, though gusts were
generally no worse than 52 kn, and for the most part 'windy' would
have covered the story. By that evening, the gradient had eased
sufficiently, and no gales were observed in our area.

29th: Classic cold-air (Polar Maritime) gustiness across northern
waters (including coasts / islands of Northern Britain & SW Norway) -
some close to gale (i.e. 43 kn), but generally just a decent blowy
day.

30th: Although rain proved a problem to areas on the continent, no
gales could be found this day.

31st: Strong westerly flow in the open warm sector affecting northern
Britain & eventually Southern Norway. By 06Z, gales were setting in
across sea areas off northern Scotland / around Northern Isles (but
mainly because of the gust strength, e.g. Lerwick gusts = 43kn),
extending to the exposed SW Norwegian coast / islands. (Once again
North Rona stands out as anomalous: At 07Z, 240/43, gust 51kn, 08Z
240/42G50, 09Z 240/41G51. By midday, the situation had changed little,
with gusts generally in these parts just into the 'gale' category,
with Fair Isle (at 11Z) 230/34G48. Gales (by mean speeds or gusts) now
more general along exposed Norwegian coasts north of roughly 61N.
However, this was a short-lived blow (typical of autumn) and by early
evening, gales were generally absent.

1st: No gales, though the low level flow was strong, slightly
anticyclonically curved over northern Britain & northern Ireland, with
and even stronger flow crossing southern Norway & south Sweden for a
time. The wind eased through the afternoon fairly generally.

General remarks: Apart from delay/cancellation to ferry traffic and
possible cancellation of some inter-island flights during the windier
periods, no 'significant' disruption was noted due to the wind. As
regards the bit of the forecast relating to a 'General Election' in
the UK, there was nothing in the weather type that would have had any
adverse impact on campaign or voting, indeed it could be argued that
over England and Wales, where the important seats would be fought for
(for a Westminster parliament), then the weather was near ideal!

My working notes can be seen at:-

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and much of the station data for these summaries has been taken from:-

http://www.ogimet.com/index.phtml.en

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

I don't have the concentration required to go through all of this
stuff but here's my three halfpence:

From one of Steve Schulin's earlier posts about 2 years back:

"The research has been discussed, but it seems misleading to say any
study has been released. A press release has been released, I think.
And
a lot of claims have been made as to what the researchers have
concluded
and what they think it should mean to any rational observer.

But to claim, as the title suggests, that the debate is over before a
paper is
even published in the peer reviewed literature, well it reminds me of
the situation described by Lindzen before the first IPCC report was
released some 15 years ago. He mused about the anthropogenic
greenhouse
warming theory being the first time climate science had adopted
consensus before the research had hardly begun."

A prolific poster to environmental groups whose work gainsays stuff
from Roger Coppock.

Not a bad thing.

Weather Action's Solar Weather Technique

The Google search dropped a post from Usenet into first plaice with
this but the original web page quoted is still extant:
http://www.weatheraction.com/index.p...13&Itemi d=38

A [presumably] Java script image quotes a professor from a British Uni
as saying that his work predicts time-scales accurately.

Rant

I wouldn't mind getting hold of FitzRoy's work on sunspots. [That was
an unexpected heads-up.] I suppose that means a long trip to Exit-
Door? [What a ****ing plaice to put a meatoralogical centre. They
should call it an illogical centre. Someone [not from the BBC] should
explain to the powers that be that the "Midlands" of the UK is nothing
to do with [and nowhere near] Birmingham. And that while
Exitsomewhereorother is a nice place to live, it puts a strain on real
people who might like to browse the archives they have already paid
for, for free.]

Presumable in the dark recesses of my ancestry, someone in my family
paid taxes at the time that FitzRoy was compiling his remarkable aids
to maritime commerce. Pity it seems to have gone to support a somewhat
less capable scientist also of the earth-science persuasion.

/rant.

Some work done by statisticians in Victorian times showed that there
was no direct correlation to sunspots and that famines in India [which
included not only Pakistan and Bangladesh in those days but Further
India too .IIRC.] but one article I read from that period shows that
the famines were due mainly to restrictive practices and finance. (As
they are today and were in the days of the Corn Laws. Hell, this was
true of the Egyptian Empire too.)

ISTR also that there did appear a bell curve for famines [which are
not caused solely by drought but can be caused by flood and by
disease] when the whole planet was considered.

Which does leave one of us at least, wondering if the Ten Body Problem
is not a macrocosm of the Three Body Problem in its impact here on the
only place in the material universe where animated and accountable
life forms are known to exist.

On Nov 1, 4:11 pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
Weather Action published a rather dramatic forecast on the 16th
October. The full text can be read in a post by SteveSchulinon the
17th in this newsgroup entitled ... " Solar Weather Technique
forecasts: massive storms to hit Britain and Europe (Oct 26-31, Nov
8-13 and Nov 24-28) ".

I have monitored the day-to-day weather, particularly with respect to
wind speeds, for the first 'phase' of this forecast, and the summary
is below. Here is the Weather Action forecast relevant to that
particular period:......

quote
The three periods for which Weather Action are 90% confident there
will be severe damaging storms:

* October 26th to 31st or Nov 1st. Storm gusts of 80 to 100mph in
places. This is likely to be a major storm period but probably only a
'warm-up' for what is to come in November. It is good there is now no
election (eg on Nov 1st ) because the election period would have been
severely disrupted (NB warning of the storms was passed on to the
Labour leadership). The storm will track East and likely (80%
confident) affect Holland, Denmark, South Norway, South Sweden and
parts of North Germany.
/quote

And this is my view of the period:-

... Given the 'tone' of the forecast (above), which implied (from the
general heading) a "severe damaging storm", then emergency planners
and others tasked with forward planning for public safety would have
felt let down - not only that, there would have been some considerable
expense to provide the manpower & equipment necessary to cover such an
event. Only one location recorded gusts in excess of 80 mph, and that
was an uninhabited island off the far north of Scotland. All other
wind reports were well within the 'normal envelope' of expectations
for a late October, unsettled period. In particular, the mention of
the 'possible' election being "severely disrupted" was grossly wide of
the mark. There was nothing to suggest that the final week of such a
campaign, or the election day itself would have been affected in any
way.

Two points to make:-
(1): Anyone with any appropriate knowledge could have produced a
forecast for this period on that date from *conventional* NWP output,
e.g., GFS deterministic, GFES (ensemble), EC (ensemble & monthly
anomaly forecasts) and MetO monthly anomaly forecasts. Solar
techniques were not required, and indeed as the summary shows above,
appear to lead to false conclusions. ...

Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique forecast these Oct-Nov periods as
likely for severe storms many months in advance (I think the first
long-term forecast for these was sent to subscribers back in December
or January). And there was enough going on, weatherwise, during the
first period to conclude that the forecast may have been quite well-
grounded. An article from last Monday's newspaper (The Herald,
Glasgow, Oct 29, 2007, p. 5) refers to Oct 27-28 as "a weekend of
torrential rain and high winds" in the lead paragraph, and later more
specifically reports that "the west of Scotland experienced heavy rain
and, in some areas, high winds. Coastal areas and Argyll were most
affected." Any description of the weather during the period ought to
include mention of this.

I very much appreciate your posting, and hope you and others will be
able to share similar information after the next two severe storm
forecast periods.

... In particular, the GFS
deterministic output 'flagged' the marked drive eastwards & southwards
of a powerful jet 25/26 October very well at least 10 days in advance.
(2): The 'disturbed' period is well within the change to potentially
cyclonic / stormy conditions found by various workers for NW Europe
(for example, Brooks & Lamb for the British Isles).http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weathe...o/singular.htm

Here is a day-by-day summary:

26th: This was the most 'active' day of this period, when a
well-marked baroclinic zone, with associated surface cold front,
crossed erratically from the WNW. The low-level flow was already
strong to gale-force in the warm air ahead of the cold front north of
about Galway Bay, and minor waves on the cold front enhanced the
gradient as the front moved east. By far the strongest wind was
recorded on the isolated island of North Rona (well away from the
Scottish north coast), with a 'Storm 10' at both 00Z and 06Z. The
highest gust I have available for this spot, and the highest
*anywhere* in our immediate area of interest (limited data to me) is
74 knots (~85 mph) at 06Z. However, it is important to note that North
Rona is NOT '10 m' representative; as a rough guide, the mean speeds
should be reduced by a factor of 0.8. Elsewhere on this day, gales
(defined either by mean speed or gusts, the latter as used in
preparing a Shipping Forecast), affected exposed locations across the
western & northern islands off Scotland, as well as coastal SW Norway.
By 18Z, as far as I could tell, wind strengths were below gale-force
over much of the area of NW maritime Europe south of 62N and between
20E and 10W, with the exception of the very exposed islands in North
Utsire (sea area).

27th: By 06Z on this day, a rapidly moving wave depression was heading
smartly ENE, crossing the Hebrides ~14Z/15Z, and ended up in the
southern Norwegian Sea by 2359Z that day; another small 'hesitation'
developed on the cold front during the evening. This was a 'classic'
cold-frontal wave, beloved of text books, which markedly increased the
gradient in the warm air over the British Isles and adjacent areas. No
gales at first, but isolated gales observed by 06Z around SW Norway,
and then more generally around northern and some western waters (of
the British Isles) during the afternoon. From the limited data I have,
the strongest gusts (excluding North Rona) were around 47 kn, for
Lerwick & Belmullet at least.

28th: By 06Z, the cold front was now transitting Britain from the NW,
introducing gale, or near-gale strengths to exposed SW coasts /
islands of Britain as well as over coastal South & SW Norway; there
was an isolated 'Severe Gale' using the gust criterion in the latter
area, e.g. Bergen 18037G52. Also, the Shipping Forecaster's nightmare,
a gale or near-gale (especially using the gust strength) through the
Dover Strait and along exposed coasts of Belgium & the Netherlands. By
midday, isolated gustiness would have 'verified' gales exposed
headlands / islands central & eastern English Channel & the southern
North Sea. Gales also around the exposed coasts & islands of Jutland,
the far south of Norway and southern Sweden, though gusts were
generally no worse than 52 kn, and for the most part 'windy' would
have covered the story. By that evening, the gradient had eased
sufficiently, and no gales were observed in our area.

29th: Classic cold-air (Polar Maritime) gustiness across northern
waters (including coasts / islands of Northern Britain & SW Norway) -
some close to gale (i.e. 43 kn), but generally just a decent blowy
day.

30th: Although rain proved a problem to areas on the continent, no
gales could be found this day.

31st: Strong westerly flow in the open warm sector affecting northern
Britain & eventually Southern Norway. By 06Z, gales were setting in
across sea areas off northern Scotland / around Northern Isles (but
mainly because of the gust strength, e.g. Lerwick gusts = 43kn),
extending to the exposed SW Norwegian coast / islands. (Once again
North Rona stands out as anomalous: At 07Z, 240/43, gust 51kn, 08Z
240/42G50, 09Z 240/41G51. By midday, the situation had changed little,
with gusts generally in these parts just into the 'gale' category,
with Fair Isle (at 11Z) 230/34G48. Gales (by mean speeds or gusts) now
more general along exposed Norwegian coasts north of roughly 61N.
However, this was a short-lived blow (typical of autumn) and by early
evening, gales were generally absent.

1st: No gales, though the low level flow was strong, slightly
anticyclonically curved over northern Britain & northern Ireland, with
and even stronger flow crossing southern Norway & south Sweden for a
time. The wind eased through the afternoon fairly generally.

General remarks: Apart from delay/cancellation to ferry traffic and
possible cancellation of some inter-island flights during the windier
periods, no 'significant' disruption was noted due to the wind. As
regards the bit of the forecast relating to a 'General Election' in
the UK, there was nothing in the weather type that would have had any
adverse impact on campaign or voting, indeed it could be argued that
over England and Wales, where the important seats would be fought for
(for a Westminster parliament), then the weather was near ideal!

My working notes can be seen at:-

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and much of the station data for these summaries has been taken from:-

http://www.ogimet.com/index.phtml.en

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

The Herald, October 29, 2007, p. 5

Rest and Be Thankful road to be closed for four days after landslip

by Stewart Paterson

The A83 Rest and Be Thankful in Argyll will be closed for up to four
days after a landslip during a weekend of torrential rain and high
winds.

The route was closed yesterday between the A814 junction and the B828
junction at Arrochar, which is often busy at weekends, after it
became impassable.

Around 400 tons of soil and rock covered the road at about 3am
yesterday. Police put diversions in place as engineers cleared the
route.

Police say no vehicles or people were involved but the road would be
closed and diversions in operation for the next three or four days.

The landslip happened as the west of Scotland experienced heavy rain
and, in some areas, high winds. Coastal areas and Argyll were most
affected.

The forecast for the next few days is heavy rain and a risk of
thunder in the west.

[photo 1 caption] TRAVEL CHAOS: The landslip on the A83 from Glasgow
to Lochgilphead that closed the road to traffic in both directions.
Pictu Phil Rider/Lighthouse Images

[photo 2 caption] BLOCKED: Diversions were put in place after the A83
was shut.

--- END OF STORY TEXT FROM THE HERALD ---

Best wishes,

Steve Schulin
http://www.nuclear.com
Rockville, Maryland USA

"Steve Schulin" wrote ...
snipped lots

An article from last Monday's newspaper (The Herald,
Glasgow, Oct 29, 2007, p. 5) refers to Oct 27-28 as "a weekend of
torrential rain and high winds" in the lead paragraph, and later
more
specifically reports that "the west of Scotland experienced heavy
rain
and, in some areas, high winds. Coastal areas and Argyll were most
affected." Any description of the weather during the period ought to
include mention of this.

I very much appreciate your posting, and hope you and others will be
able to share similar information after the next two severe storm
forecast periods.

.... I will be, but ONLY for wind damage. The forecast quite clearly
indicated that any 'disruption' would be due to wind damage, not
landslips due to heavy rainfall. There was *no* 'severe damaging
storm' during the period under discussion that affected these areas.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk