Weather Action published a rather dramatic forecast on the 16th
October. The full text can be read in a post by Steve Schulin on the
17th in this newsgroup entitled ... " Solar Weather Technique
forecasts: massive storms to hit Britain and Europe (Oct 26-31, Nov
8-13 and Nov 24-28) ".

I have monitored the day-to-day weather, particularly with respect to
wind speeds, for the first 'phase' of this forecast, and the summary
is below. Here is the Weather Action forecast relevant to that
particular period:......


quote
The three periods for which Weather Action are 90% confident there
will be severe damaging storms:

* October 26th to 31st or Nov 1st. Storm gusts of 80 to 100mph in
places. This is likely to be a major storm period but probably only a
'warm-up' for what is to come in November. It is good there is now no
election (eg on Nov 1st ) because the election period would have been
severely disrupted (NB warning of the storms was passed on to the
Labour leadership). The storm will track East and likely (80%
confident) affect Holland, Denmark, South Norway, South Sweden and
parts of North Germany.
/quote

And this is my view of the period:-

.... Given the 'tone' of the forecast (above), which implied (from the
general heading) a "severe damaging storm", then emergency planners
and others tasked with forward planning for public safety would have
felt let down - not only that, there would have been some considerable
expense to provide the manpower & equipment necessary to cover such an
event. Only one location recorded gusts in excess of 80 mph, and that
was an uninhabited island off the far north of Scotland. All other
wind reports were well within the 'normal envelope' of expectations
for a late October, unsettled period. In particular, the mention of
the 'possible' election being "severely disrupted" was grossly wide of
the mark. There was nothing to suggest that the final week of such a
campaign, or the election day itself would have been affected in any
way.

Two points to make:-
(1): Anyone with any appropriate knowledge could have produced a
forecast for this period on that date from *conventional* NWP output,
e.g., GFS deterministic, GFES (ensemble), EC (ensemble & monthly
anomaly forecasts) and MetO monthly anomaly forecasts. Solar
techniques were not required, and indeed as the summary shows above,
appear to lead to false conclusions. In particular, the GFS
deterministic output 'flagged' the marked drive eastwards & southwards
of a powerful jet 25/26 October very well at least 10 days in advance.
(2): The 'disturbed' period is well within the change to potentially
cyclonic / stormy conditions found by various workers for NW Europe
(for example, Brooks & Lamb for the British Isles).
http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weathe...o/singular.htm

Here is a day-by-day summary:

26th: This was the most 'active' day of this period, when a
well-marked baroclinic zone, with associated surface cold front,
crossed erratically from the WNW. The low-level flow was already
strong to gale-force in the warm air ahead of the cold front north of
about Galway Bay, and minor waves on the cold front enhanced the
gradient as the front moved east. By far the strongest wind was
recorded on the isolated island of North Rona (well away from the
Scottish north coast), with a 'Storm 10' at both 00Z and 06Z. The
highest gust I have available for this spot, and the highest
*anywhere* in our immediate area of interest (limited data to me) is
74 knots (~85 mph) at 06Z. However, it is important to note that North
Rona is NOT '10 m' representative; as a rough guide, the mean speeds
should be reduced by a factor of 0.8. Elsewhere on this day, gales
(defined either by mean speed or gusts, the latter as used in
preparing a Shipping Forecast), affected exposed locations across the
western & northern islands off Scotland, as well as coastal SW Norway.
By 18Z, as far as I could tell, wind strengths were below gale-force
over much of the area of NW maritime Europe south of 62N and between
20E and 10W, with the exception of the very exposed islands in North
Utsire (sea area).

27th: By 06Z on this day, a rapidly moving wave depression was heading
smartly ENE, crossing the Hebrides ~14Z/15Z, and ended up in the
southern Norwegian Sea by 2359Z that day; another small 'hesitation'
developed on the cold front during the evening. This was a 'classic'
cold-frontal wave, beloved of text books, which markedly increased the
gradient in the warm air over the British Isles and adjacent areas. No
gales at first, but isolated gales observed by 06Z around SW Norway,
and then more generally around northern and some western waters (of
the British Isles) during the afternoon. From the limited data I have,
the strongest gusts (excluding North Rona) were around 47 kn, for
Lerwick & Belmullet at least.

28th: By 06Z, the cold front was now transitting Britain from the NW,
introducing gale, or near-gale strengths to exposed SW coasts /
islands of Britain as well as over coastal South & SW Norway; there
was an isolated 'Severe Gale' using the gust criterion in the latter
area, e.g. Bergen 18037G52. Also, the Shipping Forecaster's nightmare,
a gale or near-gale (especially using the gust strength) through the
Dover Strait and along exposed coasts of Belgium & the Netherlands. By
midday, isolated gustiness would have 'verified' gales exposed
headlands / islands central & eastern English Channel & the southern
North Sea. Gales also around the exposed coasts & islands of Jutland,
the far south of Norway and southern Sweden, though gusts were
generally no worse than 52 kn, and for the most part 'windy' would
have covered the story. By that evening, the gradient had eased
sufficiently, and no gales were observed in our area.

29th: Classic cold-air (Polar Maritime) gustiness across northern
waters (including coasts / islands of Northern Britain & SW Norway) -
some close to gale (i.e. 43 kn), but generally just a decent blowy
day.

30th: Although rain proved a problem to areas on the continent, no
gales could be found this day.

31st: Strong westerly flow in the open warm sector affecting northern
Britain & eventually Southern Norway. By 06Z, gales were setting in
across sea areas off northern Scotland / around Northern Isles (but
mainly because of the gust strength, e.g. Lerwick gusts = 43kn),
extending to the exposed SW Norwegian coast / islands. (Once again
North Rona stands out as anomalous: At 07Z, 240/43, gust 51kn, 08Z
240/42G50, 09Z 240/41G51. By midday, the situation had changed little,
with gusts generally in these parts just into the 'gale' category,
with Fair Isle (at 11Z) 230/34G48. Gales (by mean speeds or gusts) now
more general along exposed Norwegian coasts north of roughly 61N.
However, this was a short-lived blow (typical of autumn) and by early
evening, gales were generally absent.

1st: No gales, though the low level flow was strong, slightly
anticyclonically curved over northern Britain & northern Ireland, with
and even stronger flow crossing southern Norway & south Sweden for a
time. The wind eased through the afternoon fairly generally.

General remarks: Apart from delay/cancellation to ferry traffic and
possible cancellation of some inter-island flights during the windier
periods, no 'significant' disruption was noted due to the wind. As
regards the bit of the forecast relating to a 'General Election' in
the UK, there was nothing in the weather type that would have had any
adverse impact on campaign or voting, indeed it could be argued that
over England and Wales, where the important seats would be fought for
(for a Westminster parliament), then the weather was near ideal!

My working notes can be seen at:-

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and much of the station data for these summaries has been taken from:-

http://www.ogimet.com/index.phtml.en


Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk