"Alan White" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 6 Nov 2007 17:39:26 -0000, "David Haggas"
wrote:

The local presenters have email!

Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...article_id=490
805&in_page_id=1770

From the above URL:-
quote
It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.
/quote

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.


It depends. If the forecast was for your precise location then 30% chance says a
lot more than scattered showers which is an areal measure.

OTOH if 30% referred to 30% of your area (e.g. county) getting showers then that
would mean nothing for your location but says a lot for someone moving around
the area.

The bottom line is that probability forecasts need to be spelt out as to
precisely what they mean. Educated people may be able to understand them, but I
guess that your average Daily Excess reader may struggle :-)

Will
--

On Nov 6, 5:35 pm, wrote:

I bet you wouldn't be quite so smug if people started insulting your
friends, assuming you actually have any.

I'm alright. I don't have any. /:@

What's the emoticon for smug? Anyone know?

Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:

It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.

--
Alan White
Webcam and weather:-http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

I agree. It doesn't tell you what type of rain you have a 30% chance
of having. Is it a 30% chance of mist, drizzle & thorough misery, or a
30% chance of a 5 minute shower? I think phrases such as scattered
showers, frequent squally showers etc. are well understood by most
people.

I've noticed that by using percentages it is easier to claim you were
right. So if there's a 25% chance of snow, and it snows, then of
course the forecaster did a good job in predicting it. If it doesn't,
well the forecaster was right.

I've got the email addresses of a number of forecasters, and the
format is normally I don't understand
why they should be protected from feedback as Tudor implies. In the
old days forecasters encouraged feedback - like good old Craig Rich.

Graham
Penzance

On Nov 6, 6:44 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Alan White" wrote in message

...







On Tue, 6 Nov 2007 17:39:26 -0000, "David Haggas"
wrote:

The local presenters have email!

Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...s.html?in_arti...
805&in_page_id=1770

From the above URL:-
quote
It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.
/quote

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.

It depends. If the forecast was for your precise location then 30% chance says a
lot more than scattered showers which is an areal measure.

OTOH if 30% referred to 30% of your area (e.g. county) getting showers then
that would mean nothing for your location but says a lot for someone moving
around the area.

And be just about as useful.

The bottom line is that probability forecasts need to be spelt out to
precisely what they mean.

And if we had Atlantic charts we could fill in the blanks. I hope the
buggers never catch on. I should hate to be beholden to them once
more.

"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
ps.com...

Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:

It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.

--
Alan White
Webcam and weather:-http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

I agree. It doesn't tell you what type of rain you have a 30% chance
of having. Is it a 30% chance of mist, drizzle & thorough misery, or a
30% chance of a 5 minute shower? I think phrases such as scattered
showers, frequent squally showers etc. are well understood by most
people.

I've noticed that by using percentages it is easier to claim you were
right. So if there's a 25% chance of snow, and it snows, then of
course the forecaster did a good job in predicting it. If it doesn't,
well the forecaster was right.

I've got the email addresses of a number of forecasters, and the
format is normally I don't understand
why they should be protected from feedback as Tudor implies. In the
old days forecasters encouraged feedback - like good old Craig Rich.

Graham
Penzance

Yes, and I suspect most feedback would be respectful and out of interest in
weather rather than anything spiteful which could probably be filtered
anyway. Feedback to presenters rather than "The BBC" might be more
effective.

On Nov 6, 7:45 pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:
Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:

It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.

--
Alan White
Webcam and weather:-http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

I agree. It doesn't tell you what type of rain you have a 30% chance
of having. Is it a 30% chance of mist, drizzle & thorough misery, or a
30% chance of a 5 minute shower? I think phrases such as scattered
showers, frequent squally showers etc. are well understood by most
people.

I've noticed that by using percentages it is easier to claim you were
right. So if there's a 25% chance of snow, and it snows, then of
course the forecaster did a good job in predicting it. If it doesn't,
well the forecaster was right.

I've got the email addresses of a number of forecasters, and the
format is normally I don't understand
why they should be protected from feedback as Tudor implies. In the
old days forecasters encouraged feedback - like good old Craig Rich.

Graham
Penzance

On Nov 6, 7:45 pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:
Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:

It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.

--
Alan White
Webcam and weather:-http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

I agree. It doesn't tell you what type of rain you have a 30% chance
of having. Is it a 30% chance of mist, drizzle & thorough misery, or a
30% chance of a 5 minute shower? I think phrases such as scattered
showers, frequent squally showers etc. are well understood by most
people.

I've noticed that by using percentages it is easier to claim you were
right. So if there's a 25% chance of snow, and it snows, then of
course the forecaster did a good job in predicting it. If it doesn't,
well the forecaster was right.

I've got the email addresses of a number of forecasters, and the
format is normally I don't understand
why they should be protected from feedback as Tudor implies. In the
old days forecasters encouraged feedback - like good old Craig Rich.

Graham
Penzance

What form of feedback existed in the "old days"? A letter?
Few could be bothered to put pen to paper and post it. A personal
phone call to the forecaster? You'd be lucky. The feedback, if any,
was very indirect. Forecasters are not in the same position as, say,
newspaper columnists whose opinions and style are their own personal
responsibility. Weather presenters are little more than mouthpieces
for their organisation and have much less choice in what they say and
how they say it. They should not be required to reply to any old Tom,
Dick or Harry who wants a moan and I hope they don't. If in doubt
press "Delete".

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I've got the email addresses of a number of forecasters, and the
format is normally I don't understand
why they should be protected from feedback as Tudor implies. In the
old days forecasters encouraged feedback - like good old Craig Rich.

Graham
Penzance

What form of feedback existed in the "old days"? A letter?
Few could be bothered to put pen to paper and post it. A personal
phone call to the forecaster? You'd be lucky. The feedback, if any,
was very indirect. Forecasters are not in the same position as, say,
newspaper columnists whose opinions and style are their own personal
responsibility. Weather presenters are little more than mouthpieces
for their organisation and have much less choice in what they say and
how they say it. They should not be required to reply to any old Tom,
Dick or Harry who wants a moan and I hope they don't. If in doubt
press "Delete".

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.


Basically you are talking rubbish. When I said 'the old days' I meant
up to 5 years or so ago. With SW local forecasters like Craig Rich
(the only loval presenter to really understand surf conditions), &
Trevor (who now resides in the far north of England) not only ALWAYS
replied, but we got on friendly terms. They certainly said what they
thought. They were also interested in local data for use in various
articles.

I would also say there are several 'professionals' on USW who are very
helpful, and fortunately don't share your extremely patronising
attitude to people who are simply asking a question, or voiceing an
opinion, and would like a reply.

Graham
Penzance


Graham
Penzance

Alan White wrote:

On Tue, 6 Nov 2007 17:39:26 -0000, "David Haggas"
wrote:

The local presenters have email!

Looks like we are in for some cautious changes:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...n_page_id=1770

From the above URL:-
quote
It means phrases such as 'scattered showers' could be ditched and
replaced with the more mathematical '30 per cent chance of rain'.
/quote

'Scattered showers' means a lot more to me than '30 per cent chance of
rain'.


The use of "scattered showers" was banned from weather forecasts over forty
years ago because it is a meaningless phrase. Are the showers thickly or
thinly scattered?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman, not newsboy.
"What use is happiness? It can't buy you money." [Chic Murray, 1919-85]

On Wed, 07 Nov 2007 11:19:29 +0000, Graham P Davis
wrote:

The use of "scattered showers" was banned from weather forecasts over forty
years ago because it is a meaningless phrase

It still means a lot more to me than '30% chance of rain'.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather