Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------

This is the forecast as given in the press release of the 16th
October, 2007
" 8th - 13th November. Storm / hurricane force Gusts of 90 to 110 mph
and tornado type developments. Probably worse in Scotland and Northern
Ireland than South England. The storm will track East and bring damage
to a band on N Europe which is likely to include (80% confident)
Bergen, Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki and possibly St Petersburg. "

And this is my view of the period:-
.... although as meteorologists we can pick holes in the exact
locations indicated, and the precise verification of gust strength (I
think the
highest was the Fair Isle gust 93mph on the 8th), using the criterion
*I* am adopting of a manager responsible for having extra resources
(manpower & equipment) in place during a 'high risk' period, with all
the cost implications of same, then I judge that such a person would
have considered him/herself well warned - particularly as the forecast
that we saw was issued on the 16th October, and for subscribers to
Weather Action, the risk of such conditions were indicated nearly 12
months ago. The period of maximum activity was very well forecast,
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some
of this luck!
It will be very interesting indeed to see how Phase III (24th - 28th
November) plays out.

Here is a day-by-day summary:
[ Only considering NW Europe between 62N and the north coast of
France, and between 10W and 10E ]
8th: Deep depression at the start of the day in the SE Iceland sea
area (980 mbar), which was still deepening as it moved ESE. By midday,
the
central pressure (of a highly 'skewed', multi-centred low) was 971
mbar, close to the lowest of the event, with the depression centre
just
south-east of Shetland. After that the low transferred eastwards,
ending up over southern Scandinavia as a slowly filling feature by
midnight. Of note was the rapid rise of pressure on its western flank
during the first half of the day, which produced a 'storm-force' NNW
gradient, the key to events over the following 48 hours. The cold
front associated with this low was also very active, and as it ran
quickly
south across Britain and Ireland, heavy rain, squally winds and
possible tornadoes were observed; the latter need to be confirmed.
After a relatively quiet start to the day, gales quickly became
established around coasts/islands of NW, North and far NE Scotland,
and the
main island groups. By 06Z, Severe Gales (Shipping Forecast
definition) were widespread here and by midday, Storm Force 10 winds
were
observed in the far NE and the Northern Isles. Fair Isle recorded a
gust of 81 knots, or 93 mph at 1200Z, and this may be highest of the
whole event. Gales also affected exposed coastal regions of the north
of Ireland, western Scotland and in exposed coastal areas of east
Scotland & NE England.
By mid-afternoon, the really high winds were sliding away into the
northern North Sea (F9/F10 widely, with isolated F11), with some
easing of
the winds over Northern Britain, but the low-level flow was still
gusty, with vigorous convection setting in, which became wintry. By
evening, gales were beginning to impinge on the coasts of SW Norway,
North Holland and NW Germany, quickly becoming severe through the
early
evening in coastal Norway, and for many other coastal communities on
the eastern (Fisher / German Bight) area of the North Sea by midnight.
Major towns/cities across northern Britain fared reasonably well,
except in the far north & northwest at places like Stornoway, Kirkwall
and
Lerwick: in these latter spots, gusts for a time were into the range
mid-60s to high-70s mph, with Lerwick experiencing a gust of 80 mph
not
long after midday.
The first reports of travel disruption this day occurred ~6Z, with
northern ferries cancelled, bridges either restricted or closed to
some/all vehicles, and within a couple of hours, flights to the
'islands' were delayed or suspended. Schools on Orkney were closed,
homes
lost power (though this was quickly restored), trees/roofs were blown
down. Tidal surge threat (see next day) led to preliminary evacuation
of some East Anglian coastal communities, and sandbags etc. were
provided or held on 'stand-by', along the English east coasts from the
Wash
southwards. Pictures on the tv news of lorries overturned traversing
exposed roads of NE Scotland. Thames barrier raised etc.

9th: At 00Z, the low is now filling slowly, in the top end of the
Skagerrak, ~974 mbar, with a strong/gale flow around its western
flank,
with troughs embedded in the flow. By 12Z, the low is continuing to
fill steadily (984 mbar) and was located over southern Sweden. Severe-
gale flow eastern North Sea & Jutland, with pressure building in from
the west.
At the start of the day, Gales or Severe Gales affected exposed
northern waters of Britain, and more widely on the eastern side of the
North
Sea from Bergen in Norway down to the north Dutch coast. By this time,
the 'worst' (as regards wind strength) was over for the British side
of the North Sea. By 06Z, Severe Gales, isol Storm-force winds,
beginning to ease back over SW Norway, though Utsire still reporting
80 kn
gusts & Kvitsoy 70kn gusts; more generally 45-55 kn. The full force of
the strength is now affecting NW Germany, the Jutland & Dutch
coastlines, with gusts 45-60 kn, though as the low has now started
filling slightly (as it moves away east), the gust strengths away from
exposed islands/light towers etc. are not as 'perky' as before.
However, at the 'Alte Weser' lighthouse, 72 kn was recorded early
afternoon
(83 mph) and this may have been the highest gust on the 'eastern' side
of the North Sea for this event.
By early-afternoon, gales appear to have ceased around the UK
coastline (may have been 'ceased' for some time, but gusts in places
in far
north and exposed east coast have maintained threat).
Continued general easing of the gradient during the second half of the
afternoon, and by evening, gales are now confined to NW German waters,
the extreme north of the Dutch coast, and areas in southern Jutland.
One or two very exposed spots in the Utsire areas of SW Norway also
experiencing gales.
Additional remarks: Much of the East Anglian & Kent coastline 'under
watch' due to a severe coastal flood alert (high tide/storm surge);
apart from localised over-topping & small-scale breaches, sea defences
appear to be secure & warnings were being downgraded by midday.
According to the MetO press release: " The East Anglian coast bore the
brunt of the flooding, with some rivers and the Broads also affected.
In Lowestoft, Suffolk, the surge peaked at 2.1 metres between 3 a.m.
and 4 a.m., 0.7 metres above the alert level for the town. In
Sheerness,
Kent, the surge peaked at 2.4 metres between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. The
storm surge was one of the highest since the 1953 east coast floods,
which claimed hundreds of lives. It was fortunate that the recent
surge did not coincide with high tide times."
On the other side of the North Sea, damage/disruption was apparently
relatively minor, and mainly confined to small-scale flooding adjacent
to coastal areas, ships losing some containers in high seas, and
delays/cancellations for a time to some airports (e.g. Amsterdam).
Hamburg
experienced minor flooding. Highest gusts for 'main' locations were of
the order 50-60 mph (e.g. Kiel 67 mph, Bremerhaven 63 mph Esbjerg 56
mph, and Stavanger managed an isolated gust to ~70mph. In the main
though, away from the coasts exposed to the NNW or NW flow, gust
strengths
were unremarkable.

10th: A complex Low has settled down to dominate the pattern over
Scandinavia with centres northern Norway and southern Baltic early in
the
day: a strong low-level flow affects the southern Baltic. Baroclinic
zone, associated with the PFJ, running from Newfoundland to just south
of Iceland then down across northern and eastern Britain and running
swiftly into NW Europe, bringing rain to many places (considerable
snow
for the higher ground of central Europe). Pressure is high in the SW
Approaches and between this and the activity to the NW, a strong,
gusty
NNW or NW flow persists. Winds touched gale-force here and there,
mainly due to the gustiness of the flow, and principally a feature of
the
eastern side of the North Sea. By the latter part of the afternoon,
even this activity had eased back, so compared to the last 2 days, it
was
a considerably quieter day.

11th: Another day dominated by low pressure (complex) over
Scandinavia, high to the immediate west of the British Isles, bringing
a strong N
or NNW flow to the area we are interested in. 00Z: Strong NW'ly flow -
some gusts close to SF criterion for a gale, more especially southern
North Sea, but overall no problems for land areas. General gales open
waters of the North Sea and as a small-scale low slipped quickly SE
along the baroclinic zone (06Z over the North German Plain), gusts
well above the SF 'gale' criterion of =43kn occurred in the
Heligoland
Bight/Frisian Islands. The wind was gusty inland, though below gale
strength. By midday, Severe Gales had developed over the open waters
of
the northern North Sea, with the wind picking up across east & NE
coastal Scotland & around the Northern Isles. Gusts in the southern
North
Sea & eastern English Channel are close to 'Gale' category using the
Shipping Forecast definition, with stronger gusts (e.g. Alte Weser
Lighthouse 52kn) associated with vigorous convective elements coming
down the flow. By 18Z, the wind exposed coasts of the Utsires (Kvitsoy
60kn, Utsira Fyr 62kn), and also in isolated spots in coastal estuary
of NW Germany are around gale-force, and there is a developing area of
F9/Severe Gales through the Viking/Utsire/Forties regions.

12th: Very similar to the 11th, at least for the first-half of the
day, with a gale or severe gale flow stretching from the northern
North
Sea down to sea area German Bight. WDSPR gales, with swathe of severe
gale (F9) extending from the Shetland/Norway 'gap' to the Heligoland
Bight. One platform/rig at midnight reported a mean wind of 50 kn
(F10), with gusts through the 'Utsires' of 60 kn. At 04Z, according
to the
Ogimet database, Nordholz (NW Germany) recorded a gust of 76 knots (87
mph) in association with a thunderstorm in the hour to this time.
Elsewhere, gusts 55-65 knots fairly widely in association with
convective activity. By dawn, gales were easing from the north over
the North
Sea, but still full-gale (or stronger) from roughly the Ekofisk area
down to the NW German coast. Still isolated mean winds of 50kn (F10),
but generally F8, loc F9: gusts in the coastal regions of German Bight
into the high 50s or low 60s, with some notable squalls recorded: e.g.
Norderney 64kn/74mph at 06Z & Helgoland 68kn/78mph at 05Z. Midday saw
some weakening of the gradient and also a decrease in convective
activity, so although there were still gales in the Heligoland Bight,
conditions had generally eased considerably from 6-12 hours earlier.
Funnel cloud observed by a ship in sea area Thames. Continued easing
of the gradient flow after nightfall.

13th: The 'last gasp' of the strong, unstable flow across the British
Isles produced some gusty conditions, close to (or in a few places,
at)
gale-strength; the problems were confined to coastal regions (and
exposed spots at that) from the SW coast of Scotland / east coast of
Northern Ireland, through the Irish Sea (Isle of Man), and out through
St. George's Channel to the Celtic Sea (Lundy/Fastnet). Wind became
strong and gusty through the Dover Strait and elsewhere along the
English Channel. Not a 'widespread' problem, but marking the end of
this
phase of the WeatherAction forecast almost exactly!


Martin.
[ my 'log' of events at:-
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and I acknowledge the following sources:-

OgiMet at:- http://www.ogimet.com/

and WeatherOnline at:- http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ ]

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some of
this luck!
It will be very interesting indeed to see how Phase III (24th - 28th
November) plays out.
-------------------------------

Well if a flat calm and widespread fog was a "success" for the first phase
of storms and gales in their view then I'm entitled to say this was a fluke!

Dave

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

On 14 Nov, 13:24, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...

------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some of
this luck!
It will be very interesting indeed to see how Phase III (24th - 28th
November) plays out.
-------------------------------

Well if a flat calm and widespread fog was a "success" for the first phase
of storms and gales in their view then I'm entitled to say this was a fluke!

Dave

The 1st half of November here has been the calmest & driest I've ever
recorded. Sea conditions here have been exceptionally quiet for the
time of year. Last November saw 9 days with the swell exceeding 20' at
Sevenstones (just off Land's End). This year it's typically been
3'-5'.
Strongest gust here so far this month was actually last night, a mere
32mph. The lowest 'strongest gust' I've ever recorded in any month
(since 1991) was 31mph in June '06.

So recent weeks of been extremely notable, but only for exceptionally
quiet conditions.

Graham
Penzance

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

On Nov 14, 10:13 am, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------

This is the forecast as given in the press release of the 16th
October, 2007.

What press release and where is the rest of it from? Or is it all from
you or the same source?

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
ups.com...
On Nov 14, 10:13 am, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------

This is the forecast as given in the press release of the 16th
October, 2007.

What press release and where is the rest of it from? Or is it all
from
you or the same source?

.... From my first posting on this subject on the 1st November .....

" Weather Action published a rather dramatic forecast on the 16th
October. The full text can be read in a post by Steve Schulin on the
17th in this newsgroup entitled ... " Solar Weather Technique
forecasts: massive storms to hit Britain and Europe (Oct 26-31, Nov
8-13 and Nov 24-28) ".

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

On Wed, 14 Nov 2007 10:13:50 GMT, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
the risk of such conditions were indicated nearly 12
months ago. The period of maximum activity was very well forecast,
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some
of this luck!

Interesting... however, I can't help wondering if a similar "success"
could have been obtained by studying the climatology, given that his
forecasts cover 5 to 6 day periods and he has forecast three stormy
periods within about a month.

In the period from October 26 to November 28 inclusive (34 days), his
"stormy" forecasts encompassed 16 days - almost 50%. I suspect that
many of us could hit the target at least once if we did what he did
and issued a similar type of forecast (surprise surprise he forecast
the highest winds in Scotland). I remain highly sceptical.

--
Dave

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

On 14 Nov, 16:14, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Wed, 14 Nov 2007 10:13:50 GMT, "Martin wrote:

the risk of such conditions were indicated nearly 12

months ago. The period of maximum activity was very well forecast,
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some
of this luck!

Interesting... however, I can't help wondering if a similar "success"
could have been obtained by studying the climatology, given that his
forecasts cover 5 to 6 day periods and he has forecast three stormy
periods within about a month.

In the period from October 26 to November 28 inclusive (34 days), his
"stormy" forecasts encompassed 16 days - almost 50%. I suspect that
many of us could hit the target at least once if we did what he did
and issued a similar type of forecast (surprise surprise he forecast
the highest winds in Scotland). I remain highly sceptical.

--
Dave

Do the press releases ever give lottery numbers for any particular
draw?

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------

This is the forecast as given in the press release of the 16th
October, 2007
" 8th - 13th November. Storm / hurricane force Gusts of 90 to 110 mph
and tornado type developments. Probably worse in Scotland and Northern
Ireland than South England. The storm will track East and bring damage
to a band on N Europe which is likely to include (80% confident)
Bergen, Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki and possibly St Petersburg. "

And this is my view of the period:-
... although as meteorologists we can pick holes in the exact
locations indicated, and the precise verification of gust strength (I
think the
highest was the Fair Isle gust 93mph on the 8th), using the criterion
*I* am adopting of a manager responsible for having extra resources
(manpower & equipment) in place during a 'high risk' period, with all
the cost implications of same, then I judge that such a person would
have considered him/herself well warned - particularly as the forecast
that we saw was issued on the 16th October, and for subscribers to
Weather Action, the risk of such conditions were indicated nearly 12
months ago. The period of maximum activity was very well forecast,
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some
of this luck!
It will be very interesting indeed to see how Phase III (24th - 28th
November) plays out.

Here is a day-by-day summary:
[ Only considering NW Europe between 62N and the north coast of
France, and between 10W and 10E ]
8th: Deep depression at the start of the day in the SE Iceland sea
area (980 mbar), which was still deepening as it moved ESE. By midday,
the
central pressure (of a highly 'skewed', multi-centred low) was 971
mbar, close to the lowest of the event, with the depression centre
just
south-east of Shetland. After that the low transferred eastwards,
ending up over southern Scandinavia as a slowly filling feature by
midnight. Of note was the rapid rise of pressure on its western flank
during the first half of the day, which produced a 'storm-force' NNW
gradient, the key to events over the following 48 hours. The cold
front associated with this low was also very active, and as it ran
quickly
south across Britain and Ireland, heavy rain, squally winds and
possible tornadoes were observed; the latter need to be confirmed.
After a relatively quiet start to the day, gales quickly became
established around coasts/islands of NW, North and far NE Scotland,
and the
main island groups. By 06Z, Severe Gales (Shipping Forecast
definition) were widespread here and by midday, Storm Force 10 winds
were
observed in the far NE and the Northern Isles. Fair Isle recorded a
gust of 81 knots, or 93 mph at 1200Z, and this may be highest of the
whole event. Gales also affected exposed coastal regions of the north
of Ireland, western Scotland and in exposed coastal areas of east
Scotland & NE England.
By mid-afternoon, the really high winds were sliding away into the
northern North Sea (F9/F10 widely, with isolated F11), with some
easing of
the winds over Northern Britain, but the low-level flow was still
gusty, with vigorous convection setting in, which became wintry. By
evening, gales were beginning to impinge on the coasts of SW Norway,
North Holland and NW Germany, quickly becoming severe through the
early
evening in coastal Norway, and for many other coastal communities on
the eastern (Fisher / German Bight) area of the North Sea by midnight.
Major towns/cities across northern Britain fared reasonably well,
except in the far north & northwest at places like Stornoway, Kirkwall
and
Lerwick: in these latter spots, gusts for a time were into the range
mid-60s to high-70s mph, with Lerwick experiencing a gust of 80 mph
not
long after midday.
The first reports of travel disruption this day occurred ~6Z, with
northern ferries cancelled, bridges either restricted or closed to
some/all vehicles, and within a couple of hours, flights to the
'islands' were delayed or suspended. Schools on Orkney were closed,
homes
lost power (though this was quickly restored), trees/roofs were blown
down. Tidal surge threat (see next day) led to preliminary evacuation
of some East Anglian coastal communities, and sandbags etc. were
provided or held on 'stand-by', along the English east coasts from the
Wash
southwards. Pictures on the tv news of lorries overturned traversing
exposed roads of NE Scotland. Thames barrier raised etc.

9th: At 00Z, the low is now filling slowly, in the top end of the
Skagerrak, ~974 mbar, with a strong/gale flow around its western
flank,
with troughs embedded in the flow. By 12Z, the low is continuing to
fill steadily (984 mbar) and was located over southern Sweden. Severe-
gale flow eastern North Sea & Jutland, with pressure building in from
the west.
At the start of the day, Gales or Severe Gales affected exposed
northern waters of Britain, and more widely on the eastern side of the
North
Sea from Bergen in Norway down to the north Dutch coast. By this time,
the 'worst' (as regards wind strength) was over for the British side
of the North Sea. By 06Z, Severe Gales, isol Storm-force winds,
beginning to ease back over SW Norway, though Utsire still reporting
80 kn
gusts & Kvitsoy 70kn gusts; more generally 45-55 kn. The full force of
the strength is now affecting NW Germany, the Jutland & Dutch
coastlines, with gusts 45-60 kn, though as the low has now started
filling slightly (as it moves away east), the gust strengths away from
exposed islands/light towers etc. are not as 'perky' as before.
However, at the 'Alte Weser' lighthouse, 72 kn was recorded early
afternoon
(83 mph) and this may have been the highest gust on the 'eastern' side
of the North Sea for this event.
By early-afternoon, gales appear to have ceased around the UK
coastline (may have been 'ceased' for some time, but gusts in places
in far
north and exposed east coast have maintained threat).
Continued general easing of the gradient during the second half of the
afternoon, and by evening, gales are now confined to NW German waters,
the extreme north of the Dutch coast, and areas in southern Jutland.
One or two very exposed spots in the Utsire areas of SW Norway also
experiencing gales.
Additional remarks: Much of the East Anglian & Kent coastline 'under
watch' due to a severe coastal flood alert (high tide/storm surge);
apart from localised over-topping & small-scale breaches, sea defences
appear to be secure & warnings were being downgraded by midday.
According to the MetO press release: " The East Anglian coast bore the
brunt of the flooding, with some rivers and the Broads also affected.
In Lowestoft, Suffolk, the surge peaked at 2.1 metres between 3 a.m.
and 4 a.m., 0.7 metres above the alert level for the town. In
Sheerness,
Kent, the surge peaked at 2.4 metres between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. The
storm surge was one of the highest since the 1953 east coast floods,
which claimed hundreds of lives. It was fortunate that the recent
surge did not coincide with high tide times."
On the other side of the North Sea, damage/disruption was apparently
relatively minor, and mainly confined to small-scale flooding adjacent
to coastal areas, ships losing some containers in high seas, and
delays/cancellations for a time to some airports (e.g. Amsterdam).
Hamburg
experienced minor flooding. Highest gusts for 'main' locations were of
the order 50-60 mph (e.g. Kiel 67 mph, Bremerhaven 63 mph Esbjerg 56
mph, and Stavanger managed an isolated gust to ~70mph. In the main
though, away from the coasts exposed to the NNW or NW flow, gust
strengths
were unremarkable.

10th: A complex Low has settled down to dominate the pattern over
Scandinavia with centres northern Norway and southern Baltic early in
the
day: a strong low-level flow affects the southern Baltic. Baroclinic
zone, associated with the PFJ, running from Newfoundland to just south
of Iceland then down across northern and eastern Britain and running
swiftly into NW Europe, bringing rain to many places (considerable
snow
for the higher ground of central Europe). Pressure is high in the SW
Approaches and between this and the activity to the NW, a strong,
gusty
NNW or NW flow persists. Winds touched gale-force here and there,
mainly due to the gustiness of the flow, and principally a feature of
the
eastern side of the North Sea. By the latter part of the afternoon,
even this activity had eased back, so compared to the last 2 days, it
was
a considerably quieter day.

11th: Another day dominated by low pressure (complex) over
Scandinavia, high to the immediate west of the British Isles, bringing
a strong N
or NNW flow to the area we are interested in. 00Z: Strong NW'ly flow -
some gusts close to SF criterion for a gale, more especially southern
North Sea, but overall no problems for land areas. General gales open
waters of the North Sea and as a small-scale low slipped quickly SE
along the baroclinic zone (06Z over the North German Plain), gusts
well above the SF 'gale' criterion of =43kn occurred in the
Heligoland
Bight/Frisian Islands. The wind was gusty inland, though below gale
strength. By midday, Severe Gales had developed over the open waters
of
the northern North Sea, with the wind picking up across east & NE
coastal Scotland & around the Northern Isles. Gusts in the southern
North
Sea & eastern English Channel are close to 'Gale' category using the
Shipping Forecast definition, with stronger gusts (e.g. Alte Weser
Lighthouse 52kn) associated with vigorous convective elements coming
down the flow. By 18Z, the wind exposed coasts of the Utsires (Kvitsoy
60kn, Utsira Fyr 62kn), and also in isolated spots in coastal estuary
of NW Germany are around gale-force, and there is a developing area of
F9/Severe Gales through the Viking/Utsire/Forties regions.

12th: Very similar to the 11th, at least for the first-half of the
day, with a gale or severe gale flow stretching from the northern
North
Sea down to sea area German Bight. WDSPR gales, with swathe of severe
gale (F9) extending from the Shetland/Norway 'gap' to the Heligoland
Bight. One platform/rig at midnight reported a mean wind of 50 kn
(F10), with gusts through the 'Utsires' of 60 kn. At 04Z, according
to the
Ogimet database, Nordholz (NW Germany) recorded a gust of 76 knots (87
mph) in association with a thunderstorm in the hour to this time.
Elsewhere, gusts 55-65 knots fairly widely in association with
convective activity. By dawn, gales were easing from the north over
the North
Sea, but still full-gale (or stronger) from roughly the Ekofisk area
down to the NW German coast. Still isolated mean winds of 50kn (F10),
but generally F8, loc F9: gusts in the coastal regions of German Bight
into the high 50s or low 60s, with some notable squalls recorded: e.g.
Norderney 64kn/74mph at 06Z & Helgoland 68kn/78mph at 05Z. Midday saw
some weakening of the gradient and also a decrease in convective
activity, so although there were still gales in the Heligoland Bight,
conditions had generally eased considerably from 6-12 hours earlier.
Funnel cloud observed by a ship in sea area Thames. Continued easing
of the gradient flow after nightfall.

13th: The 'last gasp' of the strong, unstable flow across the British
Isles produced some gusty conditions, close to (or in a few places,
at)
gale-strength; the problems were confined to coastal regions (and
exposed spots at that) from the SW coast of Scotland / east coast of
Northern Ireland, through the Irish Sea (Isle of Man), and out through
St. George's Channel to the Celtic Sea (Lundy/Fastnet). Wind became
strong and gusty through the Dover Strait and elsewhere along the
English Channel. Not a 'widespread' problem, but marking the end of
this
phase of the WeatherAction forecast almost exactly!


Martin.
[ my 'log' of events at:-
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and I acknowledge the following sources:-

OgiMet at:- http://www.ogimet.com/

and WeatherOnline at:- http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ ]

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------

This is the forecast as given in the press release of the 16th
October, 2007
" 8th - 13th November. Storm / hurricane force Gusts of 90 to 110 mph
and tornado type developments. Probably worse in Scotland and Northern
Ireland than South England. The storm will track East and bring damage
to a band on N Europe which is likely to include (80% confident)
Bergen, Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki and possibly St Petersburg. "

And this is my view of the period:-
... although as meteorologists we can pick holes in the exact
locations indicated, and the precise verification of gust strength (I
think the
highest was the Fair Isle gust 93mph on the 8th), using the criterion
*I* am adopting of a manager responsible for having extra resources
(manpower & equipment) in place during a 'high risk' period, with all
the cost implications of same, then I judge that such a person would
have considered him/herself well warned - particularly as the forecast
that we saw was issued on the 16th October, and for subscribers to
Weather Action, the risk of such conditions were indicated nearly 12
months ago. The period of maximum activity was very well forecast,
from the 8th to the 13th: if this was a 'fluke', I'd would like some
of this luck!
It will be very interesting indeed to see how Phase III (24th - 28th
November) plays out.

Here is a day-by-day summary:
[ Only considering NW Europe between 62N and the north coast of
France, and between 10W and 10E ]
8th: Deep depression at the start of the day in the SE Iceland sea
area (980 mbar), which was still deepening as it moved ESE. By midday,
the
central pressure (of a highly 'skewed', multi-centred low) was 971
mbar, close to the lowest of the event, with the depression centre
just
south-east of Shetland. After that the low transferred eastwards,
ending up over southern Scandinavia as a slowly filling feature by
midnight. Of note was the rapid rise of pressure on its western flank
during the first half of the day, which produced a 'storm-force' NNW
gradient, the key to events over the following 48 hours. The cold
front associated with this low was also very active, and as it ran
quickly
south across Britain and Ireland, heavy rain, squally winds and
possible tornadoes were observed; the latter need to be confirmed.
After a relatively quiet start to the day, gales quickly became
established around coasts/islands of NW, North and far NE Scotland,
and the
main island groups. By 06Z, Severe Gales (Shipping Forecast
definition) were widespread here and by midday, Storm Force 10 winds
were
observed in the far NE and the Northern Isles. Fair Isle recorded a
gust of 81 knots, or 93 mph at 1200Z, and this may be highest of the
whole event. Gales also affected exposed coastal regions of the north
of Ireland, western Scotland and in exposed coastal areas of east
Scotland & NE England.
By mid-afternoon, the really high winds were sliding away into the
northern North Sea (F9/F10 widely, with isolated F11), with some
easing of
the winds over Northern Britain, but the low-level flow was still
gusty, with vigorous convection setting in, which became wintry. By
evening, gales were beginning to impinge on the coasts of SW Norway,
North Holland and NW Germany, quickly becoming severe through the
early
evening in coastal Norway, and for many other coastal communities on
the eastern (Fisher / German Bight) area of the North Sea by midnight.
Major towns/cities across northern Britain fared reasonably well,
except in the far north & northwest at places like Stornoway, Kirkwall
and
Lerwick: in these latter spots, gusts for a time were into the range
mid-60s to high-70s mph, with Lerwick experiencing a gust of 80 mph
not
long after midday.
The first reports of travel disruption this day occurred ~6Z, with
northern ferries cancelled, bridges either restricted or closed to
some/all vehicles, and within a couple of hours, flights to the
'islands' were delayed or suspended. Schools on Orkney were closed,
homes
lost power (though this was quickly restored), trees/roofs were blown
down. Tidal surge threat (see next day) led to preliminary evacuation
of some East Anglian coastal communities, and sandbags etc. were
provided or held on 'stand-by', along the English east coasts from the
Wash
southwards. Pictures on the tv news of lorries overturned traversing
exposed roads of NE Scotland. Thames barrier raised etc.

9th: At 00Z, the low is now filling slowly, in the top end of the
Skagerrak, ~974 mbar, with a strong/gale flow around its western
flank,
with troughs embedded in the flow. By 12Z, the low is continuing to
fill steadily (984 mbar) and was located over southern Sweden. Severe-
gale flow eastern North Sea & Jutland, with pressure building in from
the west.
At the start of the day, Gales or Severe Gales affected exposed
northern waters of Britain, and more widely on the eastern side of the
North
Sea from Bergen in Norway down to the north Dutch coast. By this time,
the 'worst' (as regards wind strength) was over for the British side
of the North Sea. By 06Z, Severe Gales, isol Storm-force winds,
beginning to ease back over SW Norway, though Utsire still reporting
80 kn
gusts & Kvitsoy 70kn gusts; more generally 45-55 kn. The full force of
the strength is now affecting NW Germany, the Jutland & Dutch
coastlines, with gusts 45-60 kn, though as the low has now started
filling slightly (as it moves away east), the gust strengths away from
exposed islands/light towers etc. are not as 'perky' as before.
However, at the 'Alte Weser' lighthouse, 72 kn was recorded early
afternoon
(83 mph) and this may have been the highest gust on the 'eastern' side
of the North Sea for this event.
By early-afternoon, gales appear to have ceased around the UK
coastline (may have been 'ceased' for some time, but gusts in places
in far
north and exposed east coast have maintained threat).
Continued general easing of the gradient during the second half of the
afternoon, and by evening, gales are now confined to NW German waters,
the extreme north of the Dutch coast, and areas in southern Jutland.
One or two very exposed spots in the Utsire areas of SW Norway also
experiencing gales.
Additional remarks: Much of the East Anglian & Kent coastline 'under
watch' due to a severe coastal flood alert (high tide/storm surge);
apart from localised over-topping & small-scale breaches, sea defences
appear to be secure & warnings were being downgraded by midday.
According to the MetO press release: " The East Anglian coast bore the
brunt of the flooding, with some rivers and the Broads also affected.
In Lowestoft, Suffolk, the surge peaked at 2.1 metres between 3 a.m.
and 4 a.m., 0.7 metres above the alert level for the town. In
Sheerness,
Kent, the surge peaked at 2.4 metres between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. The
storm surge was one of the highest since the 1953 east coast floods,
which claimed hundreds of lives. It was fortunate that the recent
surge did not coincide with high tide times."
On the other side of the North Sea, damage/disruption was apparently
relatively minor, and mainly confined to small-scale flooding adjacent
to coastal areas, ships losing some containers in high seas, and
delays/cancellations for a time to some airports (e.g. Amsterdam).
Hamburg
experienced minor flooding. Highest gusts for 'main' locations were of
the order 50-60 mph (e.g. Kiel 67 mph, Bremerhaven 63 mph Esbjerg 56
mph, and Stavanger managed an isolated gust to ~70mph. In the main
though, away from the coasts exposed to the NNW or NW flow, gust
strengths
were unremarkable.

10th: A complex Low has settled down to dominate the pattern over
Scandinavia with centres northern Norway and southern Baltic early in
the
day: a strong low-level flow affects the southern Baltic. Baroclinic
zone, associated with the PFJ, running from Newfoundland to just south
of Iceland then down across northern and eastern Britain and running
swiftly into NW Europe, bringing rain to many places (considerable
snow
for the higher ground of central Europe). Pressure is high in the SW
Approaches and between this and the activity to the NW, a strong,
gusty
NNW or NW flow persists. Winds touched gale-force here and there,
mainly due to the gustiness of the flow, and principally a feature of
the
eastern side of the North Sea. By the latter part of the afternoon,
even this activity had eased back, so compared to the last 2 days, it
was
a considerably quieter day.

11th: Another day dominated by low pressure (complex) over
Scandinavia, high to the immediate west of the British Isles, bringing
a strong N
or NNW flow to the area we are interested in. 00Z: Strong NW'ly flow -
some gusts close to SF criterion for a gale, more especially southern
North Sea, but overall no problems for land areas. General gales open
waters of the North Sea and as a small-scale low slipped quickly SE
along the baroclinic zone (06Z over the North German Plain), gusts
well above the SF 'gale' criterion of =43kn occurred in the
Heligoland
Bight/Frisian Islands. The wind was gusty inland, though below gale
strength. By midday, Severe Gales had developed over the open waters
of
the northern North Sea, with the wind picking up across east & NE
coastal Scotland & around the Northern Isles. Gusts in the southern
North
Sea & eastern English Channel are close to 'Gale' category using the
Shipping Forecast definition, with stronger gusts (e.g. Alte Weser
Lighthouse 52kn) associated with vigorous convective elements coming
down the flow. By 18Z, the wind exposed coasts of the Utsires (Kvitsoy
60kn, Utsira Fyr 62kn), and also in isolated spots in coastal estuary
of NW Germany are around gale-force, and there is a developing area of
F9/Severe Gales through the Viking/Utsire/Forties regions.

12th: Very similar to the 11th, at least for the first-half of the
day, with a gale or severe gale flow stretching from the northern
North
Sea down to sea area German Bight. WDSPR gales, with swathe of severe
gale (F9) extending from the Shetland/Norway 'gap' to the Heligoland
Bight. One platform/rig at midnight reported a mean wind of 50 kn
(F10), with gusts through the 'Utsires' of 60 kn. At 04Z, according
to the
Ogimet database, Nordholz (NW Germany) recorded a gust of 76 knots (87
mph) in association with a thunderstorm in the hour to this time.
Elsewhere, gusts 55-65 knots fairly widely in association with
convective activity. By dawn, gales were easing from the north over
the North
Sea, but still full-gale (or stronger) from roughly the Ekofisk area
down to the NW German coast. Still isolated mean winds of 50kn (F10),
but generally F8, loc F9: gusts in the coastal regions of German Bight
into the high 50s or low 60s, with some notable squalls recorded: e.g.
Norderney 64kn/74mph at 06Z & Helgoland 68kn/78mph at 05Z. Midday saw
some weakening of the gradient and also a decrease in convective
activity, so although there were still gales in the Heligoland Bight,
conditions had generally eased considerably from 6-12 hours earlier.
Funnel cloud observed by a ship in sea area Thames. Continued easing
of the gradient flow after nightfall.

13th: The 'last gasp' of the strong, unstable flow across the British
Isles produced some gusty conditions, close to (or in a few places,
at)
gale-strength; the problems were confined to coastal regions (and
exposed spots at that) from the SW coast of Scotland / east coast of
Northern Ireland, through the Irish Sea (Isle of Man), and out through
St. George's Channel to the Celtic Sea (Lundy/Fastnet). Wind became
strong and gusty through the Dover Strait and elsewhere along the
English Channel. Not a 'widespread' problem, but marking the end of
this
phase of the WeatherAction forecast almost exactly!


Martin.
[ my 'log' of events at:-
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and I acknowledge the following sources:-

OgiMet at:- http://www.ogimet.com/

and WeatherOnline at:- http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ ]

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

Ever tried snipping??

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

In article ,
Joe writes:
Ever tried snipping??

Pot, kettle, black.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

John Hall wrote:
Pot, kettle, black.

YHBT.
--
Steve Loft
Sanday, Orkney. 5m ASL. http://sanday.org.uk/weather
Free weather station softwa http://sandaysoft.com/

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

"Joe" wrote in message

Ever tried snipping??



That's nice I post accidently and sunsequently cancel the message and then get
some bozo with a hotmail account telling me off! You will notice that I didn't
actually say anything, a clue for the wise in there somewhere?

Will
--

Weather Action verification: Phase II [Long]
 

On Nov 14, 3:10 pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message

ups.com...

On Nov 14, 10:13 am, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
------------------------------------
ASSESSMENT FOR PHASE II
------------------------------------

This is the forecast as given in the press release of the 16th
October, 2007.

What press release and where is the rest of it from? Or is it all
from
you or the same source?

... From my first posting on this subject on the 1st November .....

" Weather Action published a rather dramatic forecast on the 16th
October. The full text can be read in a post by Steve Schulin on the
17th in this newsgroup entitled ... " Solar Weather Technique
forecasts: massive storms to hit Britain and Europe (Oct 26-31, Nov
8-13 and Nov 24-28) ".

I'm afraid you lost me. Was this the post about the bloke who reckons
he can forecast solar storms?
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...8ab4e54134ff1#