On Sun, 25 Nov 2007 14:52:46 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in


... I am: see posts relating to 'Phase I' and 'Phase II' earlier this
month, and the summary for Phase III will follow after the 28th, as
time allows.

My web page has my working notes ....

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm

and will be updated for this final phase as and when.

I have also done a small analysis for the climatology for these three
phases, which will also be posted.

Thanks, Martin. I had a feeling I'd read some time ago you were doing such
a thing.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 25/11/2007 15:46:15 GMT

On 25 Nov, 14:52, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

I have also done a small analysis for the climatology for these three
phases, which will also be posted.

I assume that the final "stormy period" of Armageddon 1703-style fell
flat on its face?

Still, that's probably yesterday's news and Piers is now concentrating
on his killer snow forecast for late December. A nice white Christmas
forecast should get all the punters interested.

Cheers
Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote ...
I assume that the final "stormy period" of Armageddon 1703-style
fell
flat on its face?


.... strictly, his 'phase III' hasn't finished yet (ends 28th
November), but I can't see any signs of .... " and storm with
destructive hurricane force winds at times. Thunder, with tornado type
events (especially the Midlands and the South). Very heavy sea swell
and floods likely eg Severn Estuary and South coast. Widespread damage
of trees, roofs, buildings, high sided vehicles. Travel chaos to air
sea and road. Exposed buildings in towns near South Coast in danger
.... (etc.) "

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

On 26 Nov, 11:47, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

... strictly, his 'phase III' hasn't finished yet (ends 28th
November), but I can't see any signs of .... " and storm with
destructive hurricane force winds at times. Thunder, with tornado type
events (especially the Midlands and the South). Very heavy sea swell
and floods likely eg Severn Estuary and South coast. Widespread damage
of trees, roofs, buildings, high sided vehicles. Travel chaos to air
sea and road. Exposed buildings in towns near South Coast in danger
... (etc.) "

I suppose he was only *80%* certain...

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 26 Nov, 11:47, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

... strictly, his 'phase III' hasn't finished yet (ends 28th
November), but I can't see any signs of .... " and storm with
destructive hurricane force winds at times. Thunder, with tornado
type
events (especially the Midlands and the South). Very heavy sea
swell
and floods likely eg Severn Estuary and South coast. Widespread
damage
of trees, roofs, buildings, high sided vehicles. Travel chaos to
air
sea and road. Exposed buildings in towns near South Coast in danger
... (etc.) "

I suppose he was only *80%* certain...


.... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The
actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on
the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO
probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen!

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:08:49 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in


I suppose he was only *80%* certain...

... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The
actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on
the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO
probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen!

He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage
these words appear:

"The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th
November is now extended to 1st/2nd December.
This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it
is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds
gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds
of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed.

At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the Atlantic
and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows, i.e.
exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential storms on a
par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Western
Europe."

[1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands



--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13¢XN 6.69¢XW posted 26/11/2007 12:42:47 GMT

On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:42:47 +0000, Mike Tullett wrote in


He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage
these words appear:

"The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th
November is now extended to 1st/2nd December.
This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it
is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds
gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds
of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed.

At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the Atlantic
and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows, i.e.
exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential storms on a
par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Western
Europe."

[1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands

And a Dutch TV station interviews an irate Corbyn, suggesting he was wrong.
It is a few minutes into the programme. He accuses the Dutch Met Service
(KNMI) of putting out false information. There follows a piece by two
weather presenters. I think they are asked about his "forecast" as the
word "superstorm" appears several times. Maybe Wijke can help us get the
gist of what is said?

http://player.omroep.nl/?aflID=59668...f052261750d b

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13¢XN 6.69¢XW posted 26/11/2007 13:26:14 GMT

Mike Tullett wrote:

On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:08:49 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in


I suppose he was only *80%* certain...

... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The
actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on
the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries
NO probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen!

He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1]
webpage these words appear:

"The original central highest risk period for dangerous events
23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December.
This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word
meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main
storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting
from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed.

At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the
Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows,
i.e. exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential
storms on a par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the
UK and Western Europe."

[1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands



The following also appears on the Weather Action website:

----------------------------------------------------------------

Today, after 23 refinements to his method, Piers Corbyn is able to
forecast big storms with almost 100% accuracy, even years in advance.
In the eight month forecast delivered in December, 2006 Piers Corbyn
forecast not only the exceptionally rainy summer in Britain, but also
every strong rain and flood on the day. The only miss was the rain
front of August 5th ¡V 8th , which passed further North than predicted,
causing floods and mudslides in Scotland and not in the whole of
Britain. The success rate for ¡§normal weather¡¨ is on average 70-80%
and for extreme cold and dry periods, in between.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

I won't put my comments on a public forum!

Norman
--
Norman Lynagh
Chalfont St Giles, Buckinghamshire
85m a.s.l.
(remove "thisbit" twice to e-mail)

On 26 Nov, 12:42, Mike Tullett
wrote:

He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage
these words appear:

"The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th
November is now extended to 1st/2nd December.
This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it
is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds
gusting to over 160kph (100mph) - i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds
of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed.


But "superstorm" is not in current English and US usage, nor has it
ever been. It has no formal definition, except that supplied by
Weather Action themselves.

I've seen a later proclamation talking of "hurricane force
gusts" (sic), not mean wind speeds.

Stephen.

On 26 Nov, 12:42, Mike Tullett
wrote:

He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage these words appear:

So despite the fact he trumpets about being able to forecast strong
winds up to a year in advance, he still makes changes when convenient.
You set out your stall as a long-range forecasting company and then
make alterations at short-return periods!! Hilarious.

Clearly he's seen the models pointing to a windy end of week. I wonder
if he'll extend the period further if such winds don't occur. What a
joker!

Richard