On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:08:49 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in


I suppose he was only *80%* certain...

... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The
actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on
the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO
probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen!

He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage
these words appear:

"The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th
November is now extended to 1st/2nd December.
This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it
is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds
gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds
of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed.

At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the Atlantic
and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows, i.e.
exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential storms on a
par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Western
Europe."

[1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands



--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13¢XN 6.69¢XW posted 26/11/2007 12:42:47 GMT