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Corbyn's storms?
I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in
relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) winds of up to 100mph. Currently a W wind of 10mph here in the NW. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 25/11/2007 09:36:36 GMT |
Corbyn's storms?
On Nov 25, 9:36 am, Mike Tullett
wrote: I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) winds of up to 100mph. If so would they be kind enough to note too, any comments about the breakdown of agreement and accuracy about weather models. There appears to be nothing to replace this twin set: http://www.hurricanezone.net/ So expect a massive problem with the relevant superdupercomputer. Mike Tullet IIRC (I don't pay much attention to my detractors and tend to forget who says what) tends to see himself as the Net Kop in Chief on here. Why he sees it his job to do so selectively is open to speculation. |
Corbyn's storms?
"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
... I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) Hi Mike. Great thread on UK WeatherWorld where we have contributions from some of PC's mates. One in particular with claims to having worked with PC on forecasts.... It's the only opportunity it seems to be able to put PC's forecasts in their place...with considered verification not just outright dismissal. Some strong feelings and posts as you would imagine but still quite civil given the potential for debate.... http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...8210&posts=510 Also new threat just opening up http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...=18325&posts=6 UKWW is a good forum and mature....in the current 'climate' of forums... ;-) Joe |
Corbyn's storms?
"JCW" wrote in message ... Also new threat just opening up http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...=18325&posts=6 Oops! New threat? Sorry, should read thread of course and it's been opened and verifying PC's forecast since 15th November. |
Corbyn's storms?
On Sun, 25 Nov 2007 10:58:05 -0000, JCW wrote in
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...8210&posts=510 Also new threat just opening up http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/foru...=18325&posts=6 UKWW is a good forum and mature....in the current 'climate' of forums... ;-) Thanks, Joe - will have a look later on after lunch. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 25/11/2007 11:08:53 GMT |
Corbyn's storms?
"Mike Tullett" schreef in bericht ... I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) winds of up to 100mph. Currently a W wind of 10mph here in the NW. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 25/11/2007 09:36:36 GMT Mike, Corbyn's superstorm-forecast for this weekend kept us busy in Holland as well (as a third of our dear nation is below sea-level) - all week searching the weathermaps to find an abnormality that pinpointed in possibly direction of some "wind". So was astonished when last Friday Corbyn told on one of our weathersites that the Dutchies didn't understand his forecasting too well. We simply had no clue of the English weatherjargon. A superstorm is a "hurricane" BUT a "hurricane"is ermmm...... Okay, we're only foreigners and our English isn't that good; hope you'll forgive us. At least I think to understand this: if Corbyn talks about a "superstorm" he means a 5 to 6 Bft. So a strong superstorm will be about 8 Bft? Well, got things right again. Then your "storm" will have a 10mph. I'd call it a "mild storm" - but what's in a name. Wijke Centre of Holland, SE Flevopolder - West, 4 bft - gusting 36 kph - 22.4 mph - storm!! |
Corbyn's storms?
On Nov 25, 12:30 pm, "Wijke" wrote:
"Mike Tullett" schreef in ... I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) winds of up to 100mph. Currently a W wind of 10mph here in the NW. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 25/11/2007 09:36:36 GMT Mike, Corbyn's superstorm-forecast for this weekend kept us busy in Holland as well (as a third of our dear nation is below sea-level) - all week searching the weathermaps to find an abnormality that pointed a possible direction of some "wind". We were astonished when last Friday, Corbyn stated on one of our weather sites that the Dutch didn't understand his forecasting too well. We simply had no clue of the English weather jargon. A super-storm is an "hurricane" BUT an "hurricane" is ermmm...... Okay, we're only foreigners and our English isn't that good; I hope you'll forgive us. At I think I understand this: Mr Corbyn talks about a "super-storm" he means an F5 or F6 Beaufort. So a strong super-storm will be about F8? I don't understand the last bit. Is this what you meant: Well, [he] got things right again. Then [a mere] "storm" will be 10mph. I'd call it a "mild storm" - but what's in a name. A wind speed of 10 mph is nothing near a mild storm in anyone's books. This is the Beaufort scale for it: 8-12 mph; 7-10 knots: Gentle breeze. Leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind will fill a light flag. I doubt anyone understands his forecasts. Even him. I bet he is puzzled over some of his results even now. If you'd care to take a much wider field of view on his dates, then you might see something in them even he is missing. I don't know if you watch our Countryfile forecasts but according to the presenter, next Friday looks to be presenting a doozy for Greenland-Iceland. As it happens he also showed that an Azores high will extend to Britain in the next few days. This is due to the absence of any powerful tropical storm IME. So if there is no such storm, that part of the prediction will come true. However, with the probable demise of the couple still extant, there is a severe earthquake due and the weather models break down when that state of things is reached. |
Corbyn's storms?
"Mike Tullett" wrote:
I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) winds of up to 100mph. .... I am: see posts relating to 'Phase I' and 'Phase II' earlier this month, and the summary for Phase III will follow after the 28th, as time allows. My web page has my working notes .... http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm and will be updated for this final phase as and when. I have also done a small analysis for the climatology for these three phases, which will also be posted. Martin. -- Martin Rowley E: W: booty.org.uk |
Corbyn's storms?
On Nov 25, 12:30 pm, "Wijke" wrote:
"Mike Tullett" schreef in ... I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) winds of up to 100mph. Currently a W wind of 10mph here in the NW. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 25/11/2007 09:36:36 GMT Mike, Corbyn's superstorm-forecast for this weekend kept us busy in Holland as well (as a third of our dear nation is below sea-level) - all week searching the weathermaps to find an abnormality that pinpointed in possibly direction of some "wind". So was astonished when last Friday Corbyn told on one of our weathersites that the Dutchies didn't understand his forecasting too well. We simply had no clue of the English weatherjargon. A superstorm is a "hurricane" BUT a "hurricane"is ermmm...... Okay, we're only foreigners and our English isn't that good; hope you'll forgive us. At least I think to understand this: if Corbyn talks about a "superstorm" he means a 5 to 6 Bft. |
Corbyn's storms?
On Nov 25, 2:52 pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote: "Mike Tullett" wrote: I'm wondering if anyone is keeping a track of his forecast storms in relation to the actual weather. I ask as this is the weekend of his 3rd major storm when he is reported to have forecast (only a few days ago) winds of up to 100mph. ... I am: see posts relating to 'Phase I' and 'Phase II' earlier this month, and the summary for Phase III will follow after the 28th, as time allows. My web page has my working notes .... http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm and will be updated for this final phase as and when. I have also done a small analysis for the climatology for these three phases, which will also be posted. Just ezackerly who is saying what and where in all that? |
Corbyn's storms?
On Sun, 25 Nov 2007 14:52:46 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in
... I am: see posts relating to 'Phase I' and 'Phase II' earlier this month, and the summary for Phase III will follow after the 28th, as time allows. My web page has my working notes .... http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/Ge...on_FxCheck.htm and will be updated for this final phase as and when. I have also done a small analysis for the climatology for these three phases, which will also be posted. Thanks, Martin. I had a feeling I'd read some time ago you were doing such a thing. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 25/11/2007 15:46:15 GMT |
Corbyn's storms?
On 25 Nov, 14:52, "Martin Rowley"
wrote: I have also done a small analysis for the climatology for these three phases, which will also be posted. I assume that the final "stormy period" of Armageddon 1703-style fell flat on its face? Still, that's probably yesterday's news and Piers is now concentrating on his killer snow forecast for late December. A nice white Christmas forecast should get all the punters interested. Cheers Richard |
Corbyn's storms?
"Richard Dixon" wrote ...
I assume that the final "stormy period" of Armageddon 1703-style fell flat on its face? .... strictly, his 'phase III' hasn't finished yet (ends 28th November), but I can't see any signs of .... " and storm with destructive hurricane force winds at times. Thunder, with tornado type events (especially the Midlands and the South). Very heavy sea swell and floods likely eg Severn Estuary and South coast. Widespread damage of trees, roofs, buildings, high sided vehicles. Travel chaos to air sea and road. Exposed buildings in towns near South Coast in danger .... (etc.) " Martin. -- Martin Rowley E: W: booty.org.uk |
Corbyn's storms?
On 26 Nov, 11:47, "Martin Rowley"
wrote: ... strictly, his 'phase III' hasn't finished yet (ends 28th November), but I can't see any signs of .... " and storm with destructive hurricane force winds at times. Thunder, with tornado type events (especially the Midlands and the South). Very heavy sea swell and floods likely eg Severn Estuary and South coast. Widespread damage of trees, roofs, buildings, high sided vehicles. Travel chaos to air sea and road. Exposed buildings in towns near South Coast in danger ... (etc.) " I suppose he was only *80%* certain... Richard |
Corbyn's storms?
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
... On 26 Nov, 11:47, "Martin Rowley" wrote: ... strictly, his 'phase III' hasn't finished yet (ends 28th November), but I can't see any signs of .... " and storm with destructive hurricane force winds at times. Thunder, with tornado type events (especially the Midlands and the South). Very heavy sea swell and floods likely eg Severn Estuary and South coast. Widespread damage of trees, roofs, buildings, high sided vehicles. Travel chaos to air sea and road. Exposed buildings in towns near South Coast in danger ... (etc.) " I suppose he was only *80%* certain... .... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen! Martin. -- Martin Rowley E: W: booty.org.uk |
Corbyn's storms?
On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:08:49 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in
I suppose he was only *80%* certain... ... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen! He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage these words appear: "The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December. This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed. At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows, i.e. exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential storms on a par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Western Europe." [1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13¢XN 6.69¢XW posted 26/11/2007 12:42:47 GMT |
Corbyn's storms?
On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:42:47 +0000, Mike Tullett wrote in
He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage these words appear: "The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December. This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed. At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows, i.e. exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential storms on a par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Western Europe." [1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands And a Dutch TV station interviews an irate Corbyn, suggesting he was wrong. It is a few minutes into the programme. He accuses the Dutch Met Service (KNMI) of putting out false information. There follows a piece by two weather presenters. I think they are asked about his "forecast" as the word "superstorm" appears several times. Maybe Wijke can help us get the gist of what is said? http://player.omroep.nl/?aflID=59668...f052261750d b -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13¢XN 6.69¢XW posted 26/11/2007 13:26:14 GMT |
Corbyn's storms?
Mike Tullett wrote:
On Mon, 26 Nov 2007 12:08:49 GMT, Martin Rowley wrote in I suppose he was only *80%* certain... ... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen! He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage these words appear: "The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December. This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) ¡V i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed. At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows, i.e. exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential storms on a par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Western Europe." [1] http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands The following also appears on the Weather Action website: ---------------------------------------------------------------- Today, after 23 refinements to his method, Piers Corbyn is able to forecast big storms with almost 100% accuracy, even years in advance. In the eight month forecast delivered in December, 2006 Piers Corbyn forecast not only the exceptionally rainy summer in Britain, but also every strong rain and flood on the day. The only miss was the rain front of August 5th ¡V 8th , which passed further North than predicted, causing floods and mudslides in Scotland and not in the whole of Britain. The success rate for ¡§normal weather¡¨ is on average 70-80% and for extreme cold and dry periods, in between. ----------------------------------------------------------------- I won't put my comments on a public forum! Norman -- Norman Lynagh Chalfont St Giles, Buckinghamshire 85m a.s.l. (remove "thisbit" twice to e-mail) |
Corbyn's storms?
On 26 Nov, 12:42, Mike Tullett
wrote: He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage these words appear: "The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December. This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) - i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed. But "superstorm" is not in current English and US usage, nor has it ever been. It has no formal definition, except that supplied by Weather Action themselves. I've seen a later proclamation talking of "hurricane force gusts" (sic), not mean wind speeds. Stephen. |
Corbyn's storms?
On 26 Nov, 12:42, Mike Tullett
wrote: He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage these words appear: So despite the fact he trumpets about being able to forecast strong winds up to a year in advance, he still makes changes when convenient. You set out your stall as a long-range forecasting company and then make alterations at short-return periods!! Hilarious. Clearly he's seen the models pointing to a windy end of week. I wonder if he'll extend the period further if such winds don't occur. What a joker! Richard |
Corbyn's storms?
On Nov 26, 12:08 pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote: ... actually, his '80%' refers to the track / areas affected. The actual forecast (both that put out in the press presentation and on the detailed forecast that I was lucky (!) enough to see, carries NO probability marking; it implies that the event WILL happen! Am I the only one here that seeks the reasoning behind his forecasts? From his site: "The original central highest risk period for dangerous events 23rd-28th November is now extended to 1st/2nd December. This is a 'superstorm' period in English & US usage of the word meaning it is likley to include in the most exposed parts of main storm tracks winds gusting to over 160kph (100mph) - i.e. resulting from hurricane force winds of Beaufort force 12 average wind speed. At the time of writing, deep low pressures are developing over the Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' lows, i.e. exceptionally deep lows of e.g. 955mb. This puts the potential storms on a par with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Western Europe." http://www.lowefo.com/forecast.php?s=Netherlands It is a truth that with very "positive" North Atlantic sequences, very deep lows occur and they tend to move laterally to the West Coast of Europe and are very likely to hit Britain. (Negative anomalies tend to go north at Greenland and even avoid Norway.) However I can't reconcile tornadic periods with strong winds except in the vortices themselves. As it happens I too see there are reasons to forecast tornadic activity -either that or derechos (I'm not sure that's how to spell that phenomenon, I'm not even certain I mean that sort of event either.) But here is an odd thing: The tornadic spell we should be getting due to the lunar phase -which incidentally, runs over the same time period; is subverted by hurricanes in the North West (Asian) Pacific. This piece is revealing: "Predicted solar effects make the present period one of rapid and accelerating weather change for the whole of the north Atlantic region from Greenland to St Petersburg and from North Norway to Belgium." First off he is stating he uses the solar behaviour to forecast the weather. Nothing new there but it is nice to have it writing. So long as it unequivocal truth. He has every right to hide his methods but not to tell lies. Periods "of rapid and accelerating weather change" are not tornadic spells. The background to those are settled, calm, humid periods but of course marked striations show that things are somewhat different in the upper air. He has though, got the last bit right hasn't he? Between Iceland and Greenland, the pressure changes some 46 millibars in 20 degrees longitude, on one of these sea level charts: http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...racknell+13 2 On the other hand such a situation is normal for this side of the North Atlantic at this time of year. Not all that much to go on. Pity Mike Tullet hasn't got an impartial attitude. He might be clever but if his bent is only to deride the man, he shows a stupid lack of insight. |
Corbyn's storms?
On 26 Nov, 15:23, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Pity Mike Tullet hasn't got an impartial attitude. He might be clever but if his bent is only to deride the man, he shows a stupid lack of insight. Like others who follow science rigorously, how can you give an credence to someone who doesn't publish his methods? As well as his brazen use of the popular press to amplify all of his remarks along with his rather blinkered view on verification (judging from personal replies to people on here) - don't you think we have grounds to be a little sceptical and derisory?! Then again - you're quite a rare breed so probably stand in Piers' court on this one. Richard |
Corbyn's storms?
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
... On 26 Nov, 12:42, Mike Tullett wrote: He's now extended the time scale to the 2nd December. On this [1] webpage these words appear: So despite the fact he trumpets about being able to forecast strong winds up to a year in advance, he still makes changes when convenient. You set out your stall as a long-range forecasting company and then make alterations at short-return periods!! Hilarious. Clearly he's seen the models pointing to a windy end of week. I wonder if he'll extend the period further if such winds don't occur. What a joker! Richard Might be worth extending it to the end of March just to be safe. Give me strength ! Jon. |
Corbyn's storms?
On 26 nov, 14:26, Mike Tullett
wrote: And a Dutch TV station interviews an irate Corbyn, suggesting he was wrong. It is a few minutes into the programme. He accuses the Dutch Met Service (KNMI) of putting out false information. There follows a piece by two weather presenters. I think they are asked about his "forecast" as the word "superstorm" appears several times http://player.omroep.nl/?aflID=59668...f62cbad4f05226... Programme is "Kassa" - a fairly light-hearted consumer show. The presenter - compares 5 weather forecasts for a particular day from TV channels and websites with the actual weather and says which is most accurate; - visits "Meteoconsult" and decribes briefly how observations are processed through models whose output is interpreted into a forecast; - compares several forecasts for 2/3 days ahead and compares them with the actual weather; - interviews Piers Corbyn with subtitles; - interviews 2 presenters whose forecasts turned out best in the comparisons made earlier; asks them how they produce their forecasts; asks them what they think of Piers Corbyn's long-term predictions. They are just as sceptical as posters on here are ... Colin Youngs Brussels |
Corbyn's storms?
Having long drawn out debates with this character's "mates" is all
very well. To be honest, he'll just soak up yet more publicity. The alternative choice would be: Ignore Over-sensationlist media make me sick (look at the joke, The Weather Channel has now become in the States) Sorry, life is too short for this kind of trash |
Corbyn's storms?
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On 26 Nov, 15:23, Weatherlawyer wrote: Pity Mike Tullet hasn't got an impartial attitude. He might be clever but if his bent is only to deride the man, he shows a stupid lack of insight. Like others who follow science rigorously, how can you give an credence to someone who doesn't publish his methods? As well as his brazen use of the popular press to amplify all of his remarks along with his rather blinkered view on verification (judging from personal replies to people on here) - don't you think we have grounds to be a little sceptical and derisory?! Then again - you're quite a rare breed so probably stand in Piers' court on this one. Richard --------------------- Had the mis-fortune of reading The Express on a return plane trip yesterday(27th) . Corbyn has another big headline along the usual lines. At least this time the Met Office were quoted and said they couldn't see any similar dire signs. Other articles included a headline about a covent (sic) schoolgirl being run over and all the TV listings were one hour out of synch! You'd think two things journalists might be able to do is use a spell checker and format a page. On the other hand............... Dave. |
Corbyn's storms?
On 28 Nov, 12:10, "Dave Cornwell"
Had the mis-fortune of reading The Express on a return plane trip yesterday(27th) . Corbyn has another big headline along the usual lines. At least this time the Met Office were quoted and said they couldn't see any similar dire signs. Other articles included a headline about a covent (sic) schoolgirl being run over and all the TV listings were one hour out of synch! You'd think two things journalists might be able to do is use a spell checker and format a page. On the other hand............... The more we see of this, the better. Below is taken from http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/a...+us/article.do ------------------------------------------- Piers Corbyn, from Weather Actions, uses solar activity to map atmospheric changes. And he is convinced gales of up to 100mph could arrive within the next week. Low pressure weather systems could mean sea defences are breached in particular on the south coast of England and at the Severn estuary. He said: "We continue to forecast the British Isles and the North Sea area are likely to be hit by a major storm and associated substorms including possible tornado type events." But the Met Office last night said there was no sign of a major storm on the horizon. Spokesman Dave Britton said: "Piers Corbyn's forecasts are yet to be put up for scientific review. The Met Office is the official national weather provider for the UK." ------------------------------------------- |
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