All models (including GFS ensembles) apart from GFS main develop a Scandinavian
high over the New Year. A deep low coming out of Newfoundland in T+48 to T+72
range has been consistent from 5 days ago and is now expected to deepen more
than in earlier runs. This is in area of anomously very warm Atlantic water and
will throw up a lot of tropical low PV air northwards, helping to intensify a
ridge over the UK this weekend and later build a cold Scandi high linking in to
a high further east. Unlike our last high pressure this would be a genuine
easterly, not too cold at first but turning significantly colder as 492DAM air
advects south from the pole. Details unclear obviously but a potential colder
spell than last time is on the cards at the beginning of 2008. With the high
further north the potential for snow is higher too.

Confidence in build of high pressure over UK 90%
Confidence in the subsequent cold easterly 60%.

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in
:

Unlike our last high pressure this would be a
genuine easterly, not too cold at first but turning significantly
colder as 492DAM air advects south from the pole. Details unclear
obviously but a potential colder spell than last time is on the cards
at the beginning of 2008. With the high further north the potential
for snow is higher too.

I woke up to this this morning having switched off from the weather in the
run-up to Xmas knowing it wasn't going to be too cold !

The midday runs have the block "in place" at T+144 but none of them look
too "promising" - a nice east-west orientation in the UKMet but too far
south and the EC/GFS have a north-south oriented high centred over
Scandinavia.

Still - at T+144 I wouldn't expect any of these to be correct !

Cheers
Richard

In message , Will Hand
writes
All models (including GFS ensembles) apart from GFS main develop a Scandinavian
high over the New Year. A deep low coming out of Newfoundland in T+48 to T+72
range has been consistent from 5 days ago and is now expected to deepen more
than in earlier runs.

Interesting - could be the famous weather memory trick, but the latest
runs don't look very promising. On the other Hand, where there's a Will
there's often a forecaster's 'nose' involved...

Cheers
James
--
James Brown

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
All models (including GFS ensembles) apart from GFS main develop a
Scandinavian
high over the New Year. A deep low coming out of Newfoundland in T+48 to
T+72
range has been consistent from 5 days ago and is now expected to deepen
more
than in earlier runs. This is in area of anomously very warm Atlantic
water and
will throw up a lot of tropical low PV air northwards, helping to
intensify a
ridge over the UK this weekend and later build a cold Scandi high linking
in to
a high further east. Unlike our last high pressure this would be a genuine
easterly, not too cold at first but turning significantly colder as 492DAM
air
advects south from the pole. Details unclear obviously but a potential
colder
spell than last time is on the cards at the beginning of 2008. With the
high
further north the potential for snow is higher too.

Confidence in build of high pressure over UK 90%
Confidence in the subsequent cold easterly 60%.

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forget the Scandi High, Will, you're being selfless. What you want is more
low pressure. (See Feb 18th, 1978) ;-)
Dave

In message , Will Hand
writes
All models (including GFS ensembles) apart from GFS main develop a Scandinavian
high over the New Year. A deep low coming out of Newfoundland in T+48 to T+72
range has been consistent from 5 days ago and is now expected to deepen more
than in earlier runs. This is in area of anomously very warm Atlantic water and
will throw up a lot of tropical low PV air northwards, helping to intensify a
ridge over the UK this weekend and later build a cold Scandi high linking in to
a high further east. Unlike our last high pressure this would be a genuine
easterly, not too cold at first but turning significantly colder as 492DAM air
advects south from the pole. Details unclear obviously but a potential colder
spell than last time is on the cards at the beginning of 2008. With the high
further north the potential for snow is higher too.

Confidence in build of high pressure over UK 90%
Confidence in the subsequent cold easterly 60%.

Will.
--

Love to read you snowballers grasping at straws for cold weather, the
cold is grim so far as I'm concerned and fingers crossed we'll have yet
another westerly few months. You guys are so wrapped up in your
obsession with cold weather that you consider it rational, same as you
hate warm summer weather and expect us all to agree with you. Hint we
all don't! My wish is that after yet another mild winter we have a
heat wave summer hmmmmmm heaven.

On a serious note I reckon you've got at the most two weeks left to see
your dream realized, if things don't settle down to harsh cold in that
period, they never will. The most you can hope for afterwards is a few
cold days. Yippppeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.


--

Denis Allen

On Fri, 28 Dec 2007 03:07:32 +0000, Denis Allen
wrote:

Love to read you snowballers grasping at straws for cold weather, the
cold is grim so far as I'm concerned and fingers crossed we'll have yet
another westerly few months. You guys are so wrapped up in your
obsession with cold weather that you consider it rational, same as you
hate warm summer weather and expect us all to agree with you. Hint we
all don't! My wish is that after yet another mild winter we have a
heat wave summer hmmmmmm heaven.

In what way is an "obsession" with very cold winter weather different
from your "obsession" with heat waves in the Summer? Both are
uncomfortable if not dangerous for many people, especially the
elderly. But as we can't alter the weather, why not simply enjoy what
we like when it happens, whether it be hot or cold? Complaining about
people liking and wanting things over which they have no control seems
to be a bit pointless.

On a serious note I reckon you've got at the most two weeks left to see
your dream realized, if things don't settle down to harsh cold in that
period, they never will. The most you can hope for afterwards is a few
cold days. Yippppeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

I think "a few cold days" is all that most people are expecting...
that's what Winters are like nowadays.

--
Dave

In message , Dave Ludlow
writes

In what way is an "obsession" with very cold winter weather different
from your "obsession" with heat waves in the Summer? Both are
uncomfortable if not dangerous for many people, especially the
elderly. But as we can't alter the weather, why not simply enjoy what
we like when it happens, whether it be hot or cold? Complaining about
people liking and wanting things over which they have no control seems
to be a bit pointless.



Agreed but the way the snowballers obsess about the hint of a cold snap
you wouldn't think it was pointless.

Don't tell me Dave you've got to be another cold weather fanatic.
--

Denis Allen

On Fri, 28 Dec 2007 04:29:19 +0000, Denis Allen
wrote:

In message , Dave Ludlow
writes

In what way is an "obsession" with very cold winter weather different
from your "obsession" with heat waves in the Summer? Both are
uncomfortable if not dangerous for many people, especially the
elderly. But as we can't alter the weather, why not simply enjoy what
we like when it happens, whether it be hot or cold? Complaining about
people liking and wanting things over which they have no control seems
to be a bit pointless.

Agreed but the way the snowballers obsess about the hint of a cold snap
you wouldn't think it was pointless.

Don't tell me Dave you've got to be another cold weather fanatic.

Errr no because living on the South Coast, cold weather means cold
windy or cold rainy. But I don't like hot weather thats, for sure and
I haven't sun-bathed for many years, I can't think of anything more
boring or pointless

For those who do like snow (which i do) and have a chance of gettiing
some that sticks (which i don't) I say good luck. For those who like
sunbathing in hot weather I say good luck too, I wouldn't dream of
telling them (or you) what to do with their spare time, likes or
dislikes.

--
Dave

In article ,
Denis Allen writes:
On a serious note I reckon you've got at the most two weeks left to see
your dream realized, if things don't settle down to harsh cold in that
period, they never will. The most you can hope for afterwards is a few
cold days. Yippppeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

It's possible that in a GW world that may now be the case, but it
certainly didn't use to be. The winter of 1946-7 was unremarkable till
about January 20th, that of 1956 till January 31st and of 1986 till the
beginning of February. All then had a severe spell that lasted for at
least 3-4 weeks.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

"Denis Allen" wrote in message
...
In message , Dave Ludlow
writes

In what way is an "obsession" with very cold winter weather different
from your "obsession" with heat waves in the Summer? Both are
uncomfortable if not dangerous for many people, especially the
elderly. But as we can't alter the weather, why not simply enjoy what
we like when it happens, whether it be hot or cold? Complaining about
people liking and wanting things over which they have no control seems
to be a bit pointless.



Agreed but the way the snowballers obsess about the hint of a cold snap
you wouldn't think it was pointless.

Don't tell me Dave you've got to be another cold weather fanatic.
--

Denis Allen
------------------------
Trouble is Denis - you miss the point. Our hobby is the weather - collecting
weather if you like. Are you telling me as a stamp collector you would go
round ripping 1st class stamps off every envelope you came across or if you
were a bird watcher you travel the country to get more pictures of robins?
We tend to like rarities, some like cold spells, others heatwaves, others
tornados. We don't decry your hobbies if you have any so let us have ours.

Cheers, Dave