Very busy ATM with in-laws but I have escaped for a few minutes :-)

OK, first thing, the Russian high circa 1055-1060 mb is not going to disappear
very quickly. It is becoming well established in the models with hints of an
omega block. Some runs like yesterdays GFS break it down very quickly
introducing raging zonality, although this was realistic it is unlikely because
the breakdown hinged on the orientation of the 200 knot jet coming across the
Atlantic on Friday having the precise orientation to do it, any small change
either way and one of two things happens.

1. Backing - The high stays where it is and a low trundles up to Iceland putting
us into a rather mild southwesterly with cold air persisting just across North
Sea, this is the recent UKMO scenarios.

2. Veering - The high stays where it is and deep lows crash into the UK bringing
extensive precipitation and a southeasterly flow on their northern sides,
eventually resulting in a low complex over UK giving a nightmare mix of
rain/sleet/snow but with most snow in the north. ECMWF has been bullish about
this option and is holding its ground. GFS now comes onboard on the 00Z run 31st
but to a lesser extent.

On balance I feel that we are in for an interesting time in January with very
cold air just to our east and lows over the UK - the usual borderline situation
and a real headache for our professional forecasters.

As I said in a previous post it is highly likely that northern Britain will bear
the brunt of any disruptive snowfalls, but that all important detail can change.
A bit more veer in the 200 knot jet and we will have a severe winter situation
with ridging across to Iceland/Greenland and a full blown easterly with
widespread frontal snow. To balance that, a precisely right jet orientation will
put us into raging zonality for most of January with the high rapidly sliding
away SE.

What an interesting couple of days ahead.

Yes I'm coming :-)

If I don't get another chance to come online I would like to wish everyone a
happy 2008 now!

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Very busy ATM with in-laws but I have escaped for a few minutes :-)
What an interesting couple of days ahead.

Yes I'm coming :-)

If I don't get another chance to come online I would like to wish everyone
a
happy 2008 now!

Will

Many thanks for posting your informed opinion, Will. Enjoy your time with
the out-laws and a peaceful, healthy and happy new year to you and your
loved ones. Here's to more interesting weather in the coming week.

Joe

On Dec 31, 10:17*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
Very busy ATM with in-laws but I have escaped for a few minutes :-)

OK, first thing, the Russian high circa 1055-1060 mb is not going to disappear
very quickly. It is becoming well established in the models with hints of an
omega block. Some runs like yesterdays GFS break it down very quickly
introducing raging zonality, although this was realistic it is unlikely because
the breakdown hinged on the orientation of the 200 knot jet coming across the
Atlantic on Friday having the precise orientation to do it, any small change
either way and one of two things happens.

1. Backing - The high stays where it is and a low trundles up to Iceland putting
us into a rather mild southwesterly with cold air persisting just across North
Sea, this is the recent UKMO scenarios.

2. Veering - The high stays where it is and deep lows crash into the UK bringing
extensive precipitation and a southeasterly flow on their northern sides,
eventually resulting in a low complex over UK giving a nightmare mix of
rain/sleet/snow but with most snow in the north. ECMWF has been bullish about
this option and is holding its ground. GFS now comes onboard on the 00Z run 31st
but to a lesser extent.

On balance I feel that we are in for an interesting time in January with very
cold air just to our east and lows over the UK - the usual borderline situation
and a real headache for our professional forecasters.

As I said in a previous post it is highly likely that northern Britain will bear
the brunt of any disruptive snowfalls, but that all important detail can change.
A bit more veer in the 200 knot jet and we will have a severe winter situation
with ridging across to Iceland/Greenland and a full blown easterly with
widespread frontal snow. To balance that, a precisely right jet orientation will
put us into raging zonality for most of January with the high rapidly sliding
away SE.

What an interesting couple of days ahead.

Yes I'm coming :-)

If I don't get another chance to come online I would like to wish everyone a
happy 2008 now!

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

---------------------------------------------------------------------------*----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto: * *
www: * * * *http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
* * * * * * *and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------*----



"Yes I'm coming "

Do you have to Will, you get so excited at the prospect of two days of
cool/chilly weather. Now I'm fairly liberal minded but there are other
mire appropriatenews groups for that kind of provocative language.

In article
,
writes
"Yes I'm coming "

Do you have to Will, you get so excited at the prospect of two days of
cool/chilly weather. Now I'm fairly liberal minded but there are other
mire appropriatenews groups for that kind of provocative language.

I thought he was talking to his family who were probably nagging him to
join them... or am I being naive?
--
Wendy Tinley

http://www.theigloo.co.uk/

On Dec 31, 3:45*pm, Wendy Tinley wrote:
In article
,
writes

"Yes I'm coming "

Do you have to Will, you get so excited at the prospect of two days of
cool/chilly weather. Now I'm fairly liberal minded but there are other
mire appropriatenews groups for that kind of provocative language.

I thought he was talking to his family who were probably nagging him to
join them... or am I being naive?
--
Wendy Tinley
/

No you are correct it's just me being crude and not very funny-sorry.

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

On balance I feel that we are in for an interesting time in January with
very
cold air just to our east and lows over the UK - the usual borderline
situation
and a real headache for our professional forecasters.

Does look like Thursday and Friday could be quite a challenge. As for
January (and winter !), I still think the crowd are on the pitch, Will !
Full calendar year without a snow flake coming up here.

Jon. (tropical east Devon)

On 31 Dec 2007, 21:46, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message

...



On balance I feel that we are in for an interesting time in January with
very
cold air just to our east and lows over the UK - the usual borderline
situation
and a real headache for our professional forecasters.

Does look like Thursday and Friday could be quite a challenge. As for
January (and winter !), I still think the crowd are on the pitch, Will !
Full calendar year without a snow flake coming up here.

Jon. (tropical east Devon)

The upper pattern just does not seem quite right for a significant
bloked pattern, and the jet propagating east across the Atlantic in
the next few days, backs slightly rather than veers.

However, I am probably playing Devil's Advocate.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

On balance I feel that we are in for an interesting time in January with
very
cold air just to our east and lows over the UK - the usual borderline
situation
and a real headache for our professional forecasters.

Does look like Thursday and Friday could be quite a challenge. As for
January (and winter !), I still think the crowd are on the pitch, Will !
Full calendar year without a snow flake coming up here.

Jon. (tropical east Devon)



You not even had any sleet Jon?

2007 has been a very poor year for snow falling up here too,
just 11 days of snow falling and 2 days snow lying, locals cannot recall ever
seeing such a lack of snow in Haytor. Second consecutive December with no snow
falling, just 2 days of sleet this year which I don't count. Synoptics have been
very bad with incessant southwesterlies and few cold northwesterlies which
always give snow up here in winter.

2005 was the best year since I came here in 2002 with 22 days snow falling and
10 days snow lying 50% cover.

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

You not even had any sleet Jon?

Will

I will check later (outlaws need entertaining) but I think no snow or sleet
has fallen here in the Otter Valley since Feb 2006 with the last time snow
actually settlling (though only very briefly) was November 25th 2005.

If this is right then it is nearly 2 years since a flake of snow or a bit of
sleet fell.
____________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

You not even had any sleet Jon?

2007 has been a very poor year for snow falling up here too,
just 11 days of snow falling and 2 days snow lying, locals cannot recall
ever
seeing such a lack of snow in Haytor. Second consecutive December with no
snow
falling, just 2 days of sleet this year which I don't count. Synoptics
have been
very bad with incessant southwesterlies and few cold northwesterlies which
always give snow up here in winter.

2005 was the best year since I came here in 2002 with 22 days snow falling
and
10 days snow lying 50% cover.

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

Not as far a as I know, Will. Good chance we might get something this
Thursday though.

Jon.