"Will Hand" wrote in message news:...

wrote in message
...
On 1 Jan, 21:20, "Will Hand" wrote:
wrote in message

...

On 1 Jan, 19:15, "Will Hand" wrote:
12Z runs, particularly ECMWF, have jet more veered and the difference
in
evolution is quite dramatic. Lows further south and pushing closer in
to
UK
again. We may have to wait till end of tomorrow before evolution for
weekend
and
beyond becomes clearer. Main emphasis for snow is still in northern
Britain.

Will
--

For someone who was my college lecturer, at one stage, you are
displaying an extreme "sit on the fence" opinion, which would have
been ridiculed had your 'pupils' done the same on that course.

That's science for you.

I might prefer the 200mb low, which is appearently too high for winter
jet stream analysis, but 25 years worth of study has served me very
well.

200 mb is in the stratosphere in polar latitudes as you well know (or at
least
ought to!).

Not always, as you well know (or should do).

I challenge you to give me an example of where the 200mb and 300mb
streamlines differ at a statisically siginficant level on the current
forecast charts, especially over western Europe.


12Z GFS T+132 over Greenland.

Will

Also of more significance to UK, along 50N same time in Atlantic. Flow is more
veered and "wiggly" at 300hpa, small differences can make all the difference to
subsequent weather evolution.

Will
--

--

On 1 Jan, 21:53, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message news:...

wrote in message
...
On 1 Jan, 21:20, "Will Hand" wrote:
wrote in message

...

On 1 Jan, 19:15, "Will Hand" wrote:
12Z runs, particularly ECMWF, have jet more veered and the difference
in
evolution is quite dramatic. Lows further south and pushing closer in
to
UK
again. We may have to wait till end of tomorrow before evolution for
weekend
and
beyond becomes clearer. Main emphasis for snow is still in northern
Britain.

Will
--

For someone who was my college lecturer, at one stage, you are
displaying an extreme "sit on the fence" opinion, which would have
been ridiculed had your 'pupils' done the same on that course.

That's science for you.

I might prefer the 200mb low, which is appearently too high for winter
jet stream analysis, but 25 years worth of study has served me very
well.

200 mb is in the stratosphere in polar latitudes as you well know (or at
least
ought to!).

Not always, as you well know (or should do).

I challenge you to give me an example of where the 200mb and 300mb
streamlines differ at a statisically siginficant level on the current
forecast charts, especially over western Europe.

12Z GFS T+132 over Greenland.

Will

Also of more significance to UK, along 50N same time in Atlantic. Flow is more
veered and "wiggly" at 300hpa, small differences can make all the difference to
subsequent weather evolution.

Yes, they can if they are analyitical, but this is a computer forecast
and should be treated as such.

It is not reality.

This has been my point from the beginning.

Some people want certain things to happen, so they seize on any model
product that fits their bias.

In my experience that has never been, and never will be, forecasting.

wrote in message
...
On 1 Jan, 21:53, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message news:...

wrote in message
...
On 1 Jan, 21:20, "Will Hand" wrote:
wrote in message


...

On 1 Jan, 19:15, "Will Hand" wrote:
12Z runs, particularly ECMWF, have jet more veered and the
difference
in
evolution is quite dramatic. Lows further south and pushing closer
in
to
UK
again. We may have to wait till end of tomorrow before evolution
for
weekend
and
beyond becomes clearer. Main emphasis for snow is still in
northern
Britain.

Will
--

For someone who was my college lecturer, at one stage, you are
displaying an extreme "sit on the fence" opinion, which would have
been ridiculed had your 'pupils' done the same on that course.

That's science for you.

I might prefer the 200mb low, which is appearently too high for
winter
jet stream analysis, but 25 years worth of study has served me very
well.

200 mb is in the stratosphere in polar latitudes as you well know (or
at
least
ought to!).

Not always, as you well know (or should do).

I challenge you to give me an example of where the 200mb and 300mb
streamlines differ at a statisically siginficant level on the current
forecast charts, especially over western Europe.

12Z GFS T+132 over Greenland.

Will

Also of more significance to UK, along 50N same time in Atlantic. Flow is
more
veered and "wiggly" at 300hpa, small differences can make all the difference
to
subsequent weather evolution.

Yes, they can if they are analyitical, but this is a computer forecast
and should be treated as such.


But it illustrates the difference quite nicely between 200mb and 300mb in
winter, 200 mb level is too bland as it is above the jet stream.

It is not reality.

This has been my point from the beginning.

Some people want certain things to happen, so they seize on any model
product that fits their bias.

In my experience that has never been, and never will be, forecasting.

Right my last post now in this thread (and elsewhere) as I shall not have
computer access for a few days.

Please tell us John, based on your experience, what will happen next week?

Will
--

On 1 Jan, 22:16, "Will Hand" wrote:


Please tell us John, based on your experience, what will happen next week?

Will
--


How convenient.

So, my suspicions have been proved correct.

Weather forecasting/observing for some is just one-upmanship.

Personally, (based on my experience), what will happen next week is -
I will put out my bin bags on Monday because the binmen will be 2 days
later than normal. I will go shopping on either Monday or Wednesday
because Tuesday is market day and I like to be able to find a parking
space without any fuss, etc. etc.

As for the weather?

I dont care. I will just wait and see what comes along.

I will look at the charts and make my own mind up as to what might
happen, and use it to my advantage with regard to the garden and
allotment. If I consider that someone is misleading others into a
false idea of the future weather, I may air my personal views in order
to prevent them from making a big mistake in their garden/allotment/
personal plans, but otherwise I just take it as it comes.

wrote in message
...
On 1 Jan, 22:16, "Will Hand" wrote:


Please tell us John, based on your experience, what will happen next
week?

Will
--


How convenient.

So, my suspicions have been proved correct.

Weather forecasting/observing for some is just one-upmanship.

Personally, (based on my experience), what will happen next week is -
I will put out my bin bags on Monday because the binmen will be 2 days
later than normal. I will go shopping on either Monday or Wednesday
because Tuesday is market day and I like to be able to find a parking
space without any fuss, etc. etc.

As for the weather?

I dont care. I will just wait and see what comes along.

I will look at the charts and make my own mind up as to what might
happen, and use it to my advantage with regard to the garden and
allotment. If I consider that someone is misleading others into a
false idea of the future weather, I may air my personal views in order
to prevent them from making a big mistake in their garden/allotment/
personal plans, but otherwise I just take it as it comes.



Pathetic.
Credit to Will for seeing something a long way off that no-one else picked
up on.
Will, also to his credit, gives analysis as to why his forecasts have gone
wrong when they do. We all know he loves his snowy weather, nothing wrong
with that, but at least he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is -
unlike others.

--
David Mitchell, 70m amsl, Langtoft, East Riding of Yorkshire.

In article ,
David Mitchell writes:
Credit to Will for seeing something a long way off that no-one else picked
up on.
Will, also to his credit, gives analysis as to why his forecasts have gone
wrong when they do. We all know he loves his snowy weather, nothing wrong
with that, but at least he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is -
unlike others.

Hear, hear.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

In article , John Hall
writes
In article ,
David Mitchell writes:
Credit to Will for seeing something a long way off that no-one else picked
up on.
Will, also to his credit, gives analysis as to why his forecasts have gone
wrong when they do. We all know he loves his snowy weather, nothing wrong
with that, but at least he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is -
unlike others.

Hear, hear.

Seconding the hear, hear!
--
Wendy Tinley

http://www.theigloo.co.uk/

David Mitchell wrote:
Credit to Will for seeing something a long way off that no-one else picked
up on.
Will, also to his credit, gives analysis as to why his forecasts have gone
wrong when they do. We all know he loves his snowy weather, nothing wrong
with that, but at least he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is -
unlike others.


He also plays a mean game of skittles!

--
Mike LONGWORTH, Yateley, Hampshire, UK

On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 11:05:39 +0000, Wendy Tinley
wrote:

In article , John Hall
writes
In article ,
David Mitchell writes:
Credit to Will for seeing something a long way off that no-one else picked
up on.
Will, also to his credit, gives analysis as to why his forecasts have gone
wrong when they do. We all know he loves his snowy weather, nothing wrong
with that, but at least he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is -
unlike others.

Hear, hear.

Seconding the hear, hear!

Thrice hear, here!

--
Dave

On Jan 2, 3:45*pm, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 11:05:39 +0000, Wendy Tinley
wrote:

In article , John Hall
writes
In article ,
David Mitchell writes:
Credit to Will for seeing something a long way off that no-one else picked
up on.
Will, also to his credit, gives analysis as to why his forecasts have gone
wrong when they do. We all know he loves his snowy weather, nothing wrong
with that, but at least he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is -
unlike others.

Hear, hear.

Seconding the hear, hear!

Thrice hear, here!

--
Dave

and hear,hear,hear,hear the guys a genius ,i post on TWO, and do miss
his synoptics ,thanks to a few arseholes that belittled him,he has
stopped