Uses boundary layer dynamics straight from the high resolution model and a
few "tuning" factors to allow for local detail.

Will
--

They actually use 'tuning facors'!, blimey they must be c**p. The MetO
told me it was 'raw data' when I pointed out that Padstow east facing
up the Camel estuary, typically has the same max gust forecasts as the
exposed NW facing cliff top location of Newquay (1 mph different at
09:00 today) when they are simply worlds apart. The forecasts for
Penzance seem to take no account of it's exposure to the SE, and as a
result the predictions are normally a gross underestimate during a SE,
and a considereable overestimate on a SW. Perhaps the MetO could
employ humans with a local knowledge? (Sorry - silly suggestion)

It's not unusual to see the same vistually the same forecast speeds
for every coastal location in Cornwall irrespective of aspect.

Graham
Penzance - Where fortunately the gusts were just 40-45mph overnight,
compared with the 70mph+ on Monday. Still a big 20'+ swell
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62107

"Alan White" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 12 Mar 2008 00:19:14 -0000, "Adam Lea"
wrote:


We are and so far a maximum gust of only 46 mph.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in
Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

?? Never any flashes out for Scotland that I saw. Was an early warning for
Strathclyde but that was when Kintyre and South Ayrshire were at risk

JS

On Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:46:14 -0000, "John Stewart"
wrote:

?? Never any flashes out for Scotland that I saw. Was an early warning for
Strathclyde but that was when Kintyre and South Ayrshire were at risk

The warning for Strathclyde was up until about 10:00 today and first
appeared sometime early yesterday - I think.
--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

On Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:46:14 -0000, "John Stewart"
wrote:

?? Never any flashes out for Scotland that I saw. Was an early warning for
Strathclyde but that was when Kintyre and South Ayrshire were at risk

The warning for Strathclyde was up until about 10:00 today and first
appeared sometime early yesterday or late on Monday - I think. It
certainly covered Argyll and Bute.

Now that the warning's been removed we're max gusting over 50 mph.
--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

On Wed, 12 Mar 2008 08:17:47 +0000, Alan White wrote:

It is starting to get very blustery down here in Sussex, and this area
is not even under a weather warning.

We are and so far a maximum gust of only 46 mph.

So were we but it didn't happen. Where did it go?

Looking at the charts last night I was expecting to be woken by the noise
anytime after 0300 but it was windier at midnight and then only F6. We've
had a bit of rain, 6mm since midnight, and some hefty, blustery showers
this morning but nothing like what I was expecting. Did the low track a
little further south thus we missed the band of gales?

--
Cheers
Dave.

"Alan White" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:46:14 -0000, "John Stewart"
wrote:

?? Never any flashes out for Scotland that I saw. Was an early warning for
Strathclyde but that was when Kintyre and South Ayrshire were at risk

The warning for Strathclyde was up until about 10:00 today and first
appeared sometime early yesterday - I think.
--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in
Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

There was an early warning on Monday reissued on Tuesday. As far as I know
these are only issued once in any day so the timings would have to be for
the whole affected area including England etc , and only for large regions
of the country so anything in Kintyre or Girvan would colour the whole of
Strathclyde red. Flashes though are by "county" though of course even if
there had been a FLASH warning for Campbeltown it would still have turned
the whole of Argyll red

On Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:04:38 -0000, "John Stewart"
wrote:

There was an early warning on Monday reissued on Tuesday. As far as I know
these are only issued once in any day so the timings would have to be for
the whole affected area including England etc , and only for large regions
of the country so anything in Kintyre or Girvan would colour the whole of
Strathclyde red. Flashes though are by "county" though of course even if
there had been a FLASH warning for Campbeltown it would still have turned
the whole of Argyll red

It was an 'early' to which I was referring, not a 'flash'.

'Earlies', certainly, are frequently updated to match changing
conditions.

I'm not really clear what your point is.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

"Alan White" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:04:38 -0000, "John Stewart"

It was an 'early' to which I was referring, not a 'flash'.

'Earlies', certainly, are frequently updated to match changing
conditions.

I'm not really clear what your point is.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in
Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

No, earlies are only issued once a day. if it had been expected that it was
going to come off for Argyll on the day then there would have been a flash
for "current weather". Your 46mph was consistent with no flash, and the
early was issued the previous day when there was a chance Kintyre might have
been affected, looking at the forecast charts at the time. Maybe it would
have been an orange or yellow warning under the new scheme?

On Thu, 13 Mar 2008 12:54:33 -0000, "John Stewart"
wrote:

No, earlies are only issued once a day. if it had been expected that it was
going to come off for Argyll on the day then there would have been a flash
for "current weather". Your 46mph was consistent with no flash, and the
early was issued the previous day when there was a chance Kintyre might have
been affected, looking at the forecast charts at the time. Maybe it would
have been an orange or yellow warning under the new scheme?

The fact remains that when I posted at 08:17 Strathclyde was 'red'.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

"Alan White" wrote in message
...


The fact remains that when I posted at 08:17 Strathclyde was 'red'.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in
Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

true that

you really need to dig further in to see if it is an old early warning or a
current flash earlies can colour in the map at quite low probabilities but
for flash it must be 80% confident and for county level

anyway looks like the standing order for red paint will be reduced in favour
of amber and yellow according to the website