According Michel Jarraud, generale secretary of the WMO, 2008 should be
colder than average. Met offices found a suddden drop of temperature
after june 2007. Bevor being condemned to be a person ignoring the
globale warming let´s discuss about the effect of La Nina.

Oceanographic Studies figure out clearly that a new La Nina Phase is
activ. This explains why in Africa and Australia we had so much rain.
Even the very low temperatures in China can be explained with La Nina.

Sure the effect has only minor effects for Europe but the mild winter
could be a result of this effect. Normaly La Nina is only activ for a 9
til 12 months period. But correlation with the above average 98
occurance show that even a 2 jaer Influence is possible

What do you think ?

Marc

The study of El Nino and La Nina is in its infancy. But clearly El
Nino and La Nina have effects that extend far beyond the Pacific.
What those effects are remain to be clarified.

As for this past winter....well it certainly was unusual. Maybe the
best that can be said is that a strong La Nina is likely to produce
less "ordinary" weather in far flung parts of the planet - expect the
unusual and there won't be disappointment.

I draw a parallel. In my youth, plate tectonics was scarcely
understood and was little more than a hypothesis. I am sure that El
Nino and La Nina phenomena - scarcely understood today - will be as
mainstream 50 years from now as plate tectonics is today.

Jack

On Apr 11, 12:35*pm, "kieler.sprotte"
wrote:
According Michel Jarraud, generale secretary of the WMO, 2008 should be
colder than average.

After 3 months of 2008 and a weakening La nina, I'd put this as
remote.

Met offices found a suddden drop of temperature
after june 2007. Bevor being condemned to be a person ignoring the
globale warming let´s discuss about the effect of La Nina.

Oceanographic Studies figure out clearly that a new La Nina Phase is
activ.

Activ? NOAA, the Aussie Met Bureau and the majotity of the predictive
models show it to be weakening.

This explains why in Africa and Australia we had so much rain.

many parts of Australia are currently in the grip of drought despite
La Nina.

Even the very low temperatures in China can be explained with La Nina.

How?


Sure the effect has only minor effects for Europe but the mild winter
could be a result of this effect.

It really is a "could". No research points to the bulk of any type of
UK winter being the result of La Nina.

Normaly La Nina is only activ for a 9
til 12 months period.

Not always: this page will help:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/ana...nsoyears.shtml

But correlation with the above average 98
occurance show that even a 2 jaer Influence is possible

Not possible, recorded a number of times:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/ana...nsoyears.shtml

What do you think ?

Not a lot here, Marc!

On Apr 11, 12:35�pm, "kieler.sprotte"
wrote:
According Michel Jarraud, generale secretary of the WMO, 2008 should be
colder than average.
Marc

I believe what Michael Jarrud actually said was that this year would
be cooler than 2007, not cooler than average. It should in fact still
be warmer than average.
Although La Nina is expected to gradually weaken this year with
neutral conditions by the 3rd quarter, there is a significant lag
before its cooling effect wares off.

Dick Lovett

On Apr 12, 12:03Â*am, Dick Lovett wrote:
On Apr 11, 12:35�pm, "kieler.sprotte"
wrote:

According Michel Jarraud, generale secretary of the WMO, 2008 should be
colder than average.
Marc

I believe what Michael Jarrud actually said was that this year would
be cooler than 2007, not cooler than average. It should in fact still
be warmer than average.
Although La Nina is expected to gradually weaken this year with
neutral conditions by the 3rd quarter, there is a significant lag
before its cooling effect wares off.

Dick Lovett

Now that would be a lot more sensible, Dick. The chances of this year
being below average, with GW highly likely (never certain) to continue
are extremely slim. It is 169 months, over 14 years, since the world
experienced a month which was colder that the 127+ years NASA average.
It is 31 years since the world experienced a year colder than that
sequence's average year and 2008 is almost certain to make that 32. It
is moot whether 2008 will be warmer, of colder than 2007.

Paul