Not impossible with the last couple of gfs runs. Chances of some very
warm air heading our way from North Africa.

Torro has these date records for the end of April:

26 25.8C 78.4 Inverdruie (Highland) 1984
27 25.6C 78 New Malden (London) 1916
28 25.5C 77.9 Kinlochewe (Highland) 1984
29 25.8C 78.4 Creebridge (Dumfries and Galloway) 1993; 25.0/77
Margate and Herne Bay (both Kent) 1955
30 26.1*C 79* Camden Square (London)1952
25.0C 77 Kensington Palace and Regents Park (both London)
1952; Aberdovey (Gwynedd) 1990; Nantwich (Cheshire) and Glentress
(Borders) 1993

None are actually as high as the records for the next few days: April
1893 must have been a corker!

19 25.6 78 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
20 28.9 84 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
21 28.1 82.6 Ross-on-Wye (Heref)1893

Over 80F in April 1893!! Phew what a schorcher! It takes exceptional
synoptics and perfect local conditions to produce a date record and
some survive for centuries, despite a warming trend. However, given
exactly the same synoptics today, on those dates, a date record would
be more likely now than it was then. Local conditions would determine
whether a record was actually set. Also, in a warming trend, you would
expect to see more date records set per decade than in decades
previous - exactly what we have happening in the UK at the moment.

I like chasing possible plumes on the gfs over the summer. Spotting
them at T240+ has netted me over £1000 profit in backing record
monthly temperatures at the bookies over the last 3 years. (Oh no!
Echoes of Piers Corbyn there!) It's my only gambling weakness, honest!

Paul

On Fri, 18 Apr 2008 10:41:44 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish wrote:

Not impossible with the last couple of gfs runs. Chances of some very
warm air heading our way from North Africa.

Torro has these date records for the end of April:

26 25.8C 78.4 Inverdruie (Highland) 1984
27 25.6C 78 New Malden (London) 1916
28 25.5C 77.9 Kinlochewe (Highland) 1984
29 25.8C 78.4 Creebridge (Dumfries and Galloway) 1993; 25.0/77
Margate and Herne Bay (both Kent) 1955
30 26.1*C 79* Camden Square (London)1952
25.0C 77 Kensington Palace and Regents Park (both London)
1952; Aberdovey (Gwynedd) 1990; Nantwich (Cheshire) and Glentress
(Borders) 1993

None are actually as high as the records for the next few days: April
1893 must have been a corker!

19 25.6 78 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
20 28.9 84 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
21 28.1 82.6 Ross-on-Wye (Heref)1893

Over 80F in April 1893!! Phew what a schorcher! It takes exceptional
synoptics and perfect local conditions to produce a date record and
some survive for centuries, despite a warming trend. However, given
exactly the same synoptics today, on those dates, a date record would
be more likely now than it was then. Local conditions would determine
whether a record was actually set. Also, in a warming trend, you would
expect to see more date records set per decade than in decades
previous - exactly what we have happening in the UK at the moment.

I like chasing possible plumes on the gfs over the summer. Spotting
them at T240+ has netted me over £1000 profit in backing record
monthly temperatures at the bookies over the last 3 years. (Oh no!
Echoes of Piers Corbyn there!) It's my only gambling weakness, honest!

Paul

I recorded 26.8C in St Albans on the 16th of April 2003 - the wind
direction was ENE as well.


Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans
101m ASL
18/04/2008 19:03:20

On Apr 18, 7:04*pm, Alan Gardiner wrote:
On Fri, 18 Apr 2008 10:41:44 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish wrote:
Not impossible with the last couple of gfs runs. Chances of some very
warm air heading our way from North Africa.

Torro has these date records for the end of April:

26 * 25.8C *78.4 *Inverdruie (Highland) 1984
27 * 25.6C *78 *New Malden (London) 1916
28 * 25.5C *77.9 *Kinlochewe (Highland) 1984
29 * 25.8C *78.4 *Creebridge (Dumfries and Galloway) 1993; 25.0/77
Margate and Herne Bay (both Kent) 1955
30 * 26.1*C *79* *Camden Square (London)1952
* * * 25.0C *77 *Kensington Palace and Regents Park (both London)
1952; Aberdovey (Gwynedd) * 1990; Nantwich (Cheshire) and Glentress
(Borders) 1993

None are actually as high as the records for the next few days: April
1893 must have been a corker!

19 *25.6 *78 *Cambridge- Observatory 1893
20 *28.9 *84 *Cambridge- Observatory 1893
21 *28.1 *82.6 *Ross-on-Wye (Heref)1893

Over 80F in April 1893!! Phew what a schorcher! It takes exceptional
synoptics and perfect local conditions to produce a date record and
some survive for centuries, despite a warming trend. However, given
exactly the same synoptics today, on those dates, a date record would
be more likely now than it was then. Local conditions would determine
whether a record was actually set. Also, in a warming trend, you would
expect to see more date records set per decade than in decades
previous - exactly what we have happening in the UK at the moment.

I like chasing possible plumes on the gfs over the summer. Spotting
them at T240+ has netted me over £1000 profit in backing record
monthly temperatures at the bookies over the last 3 years. (Oh no!
Echoes of Piers Corbyn there!) It's my only gambling weakness, honest!

Paul

I recorded 26.8C in St Albans on the 16th of April 2003 - the wind
direction was ENE as well.

Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans
101m ASL
18/04/2008 19:03:20- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Date record for the 16th is the equal highest (with the 20th) for the
whole of April (if you ignore the iffy Camden Square one):

16 29.4* 85* Camden Square (London)1949
28.9 84 Kensington Palace, Wealdstone, Greenwich (all London )
1949

Over 80F in an ENE wind! Anything particular about the location? (I
don't know the St. Albans area at all, Alan). Exceptional conditions
for the UK in April, for sure!

Paul

I recorded 26.8C in St Albans on the 16th of April 2003 - the wind
direction was ENE as well.

30C in London on the 16th April 1949?
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Dawlish wrote:
Not impossible with the last couple of gfs runs. Chances of some very
warm air heading our way from North Africa.


I hope so. It's +6c and blowing 30km/hr here in Norfolk. I've lit the
wood burner; the "Last Wood Burner Firing" will be a late one this year :|

Chris

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Not impossible with the last couple of gfs runs. Chances of some very
warm air heading our way from North Africa.

Torro has these date records for the end of April:

26 25.8C 78.4 Inverdruie (Highland) 1984
27 25.6C 78 New Malden (London) 1916
28 25.5C 77.9 Kinlochewe (Highland) 1984
29 25.8C 78.4 Creebridge (Dumfries and Galloway) 1993; 25.0/77
Margate and Herne Bay (both Kent) 1955
30 26.1*C 79* Camden Square (London)1952
25.0C 77 Kensington Palace and Regents Park (both London)
1952; Aberdovey (Gwynedd) 1990; Nantwich (Cheshire) and Glentress
(Borders) 1993

None are actually as high as the records for the next few days: April
1893 must have been a corker!

19 25.6 78 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
20 28.9 84 Cambridge- Observatory 1893
21 28.1 82.6 Ross-on-Wye (Heref)1893

Over 80F in April 1893!! Phew what a schorcher! It takes exceptional
synoptics and perfect local conditions to produce a date record and
some survive for centuries, despite a warming trend. However, given
exactly the same synoptics today, on those dates, a date record would
be more likely now than it was then. Local conditions would determine
whether a record was actually set. Also, in a warming trend, you would
expect to see more date records set per decade than in decades
previous - exactly what we have happening in the UK at the moment.

I like chasing possible plumes on the gfs over the summer. Spotting
them at T240+ has netted me over £1000 profit in backing record
monthly temperatures at the bookies over the last 3 years. (Oh no!
Echoes of Piers Corbyn there!) It's my only gambling weakness, honest!

Paul

Not a big fan of these date records, its hardly significant that we may
reach 26.1C on the 26th if in previous years we reached 28C on the 20th -
its just a function of the relatively short period records have been kept in
relation to the variability of hot spells.

What would be a more interesting way to use these records is to identify
things like "it reached 30C 3 weeks earlier than it has previously".

You only need to look at the way these stats are overused in the US, there
would be something wrong if some station somewhere in the US didn't break
any daily records in any week.

On Apr 20, 2:42*am, "John Stewart" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

Not a big fan of these date records, its hardly significant that we may
reach 26.1C on the 26th if in previous years we reached 28C on the 20th -
its just a function of the relatively short period records have been kept in
relation to the variability of hot spells.

What would be a more interesting way to use these records is to identify
things like "it reached 30C 3 weeks earlier than it has previously".

You only need to look at the way these stats are overused in the US, there
would be something wrong if some station somewhere in the US didn't break
any daily records in any week.

I hope Date Records don't start getting used in this country
as they are not very meaningful as your example shows. They are a bit
gee-whizz but not to be taken too seriously. Even with a 30-yr
record at a single station you would get an average of 2 a month. It
would be like some arcane cricket statistic such as " the first
century from a No. 4 batsman at Trent Bridge against Somerset in
June". Wow!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Apr 20, 3:44*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Apr 20, 2:42*am, "John Stewart" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

Not a big fan of these date records, its hardly significant that we may
reach 26.1C on the 26th if in previous years we reached 28C on the 20th -
its just a function of the relatively short period records have been kept in
relation to the variability of hot spells.

What would be a more interesting way to use these records is to identify
things like "it reached 30C 3 weeks earlier than it has previously".

You only need to look at the way these stats are overused in the US, there
would be something wrong if some station somewhere in the US didn't break
any daily records in any week.

* * * * *I hope Date Records don't start getting used in this country
as they are not very meaningful as your example shows. *They are a bit
gee-whizz but not to be taken too seriously. * Even with a 30-yr
record at a single station you would get an average of 2 a month. *It
would be like some arcane cricket statistic such as " the first
century from a No. 4 batsman at Trent Bridge against Somerset in
June". *Wow!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Chances of a max date record, or even any 21C warmth, are
significantly reduced already! 2 days is a long time in 10-day
forecasting, sometimes!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.png

Paul

On Apr 20, 6:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 20, 3:44*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:





On Apr 20, 2:42*am, "John Stewart" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

Not a big fan of these date records, its hardly significant that we may
reach 26.1C on the 26th if in previous years we reached 28C on the 20th -
its just a function of the relatively short period records have been kept in
relation to the variability of hot spells.

What would be a more interesting way to use these records is to identify
things like "it reached 30C 3 weeks earlier than it has previously".

You only need to look at the way these stats are overused in the US, there
would be something wrong if some station somewhere in the US didn't break
any daily records in any week.

* * * * *I hope Date Records don't start getting used in this country
as they are not very meaningful as your example shows. *They are a bit
gee-whizz but not to be taken too seriously. * Even with a 30-yr
record at a single station you would get an average of 2 a month. *It
would be like some arcane cricket statistic such as " the first
century from a No. 4 batsman at Trent Bridge against Somerset in
June". *Wow!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Chances of a max date record, or even any 21C warmth, are
significantly reduced already! 2 days is a long time in 10-day
forecasting, sometimes!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.png

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

And now we have the return of a distinct possibility of 21C+ in some
favoured areas on Friday, or Saturday. I'd go for a top temp of 22.3C
at Hurn on one day, or the other. Any other guesses and locations - I
could sense a competition coming on. Top temp and location before
0000Monday.

22.3C at Hurn from me.

On the subject of date records, I agree with other posters that little
significance should be given to individual date records; especially
when talking about temperature trends. They require such specific
synoptics and exceptional local conditions to fall on a particular
day. That's why many have survived for over a century.

However, when you look at the number of UK warm date records vs cold
date records that have been set in the last 25 years, you do find, not
surprisingly, a significant skew towards the former. I just find them
interesting for speculation - as I find whether a cold date record
will be set just as interesting. It focuses you on the possibility of
exceptional synoptics and what synoptics it takes to produce what
degree of warmth, or cold, at different times of the year. I don't
really see the synoptics for the coming weekend as being exceptional
now, though the warmth will be very pleasant. If it does break down
into some spectacular thunderstorms on the Sunday; all the better!

I don't see the warmth lasting at all. By T240, on May 1st., I
forecast that the UK will, once again, be in cool winds from a
direction between NW and NE and the CET will be below average on that
day. A cool start to May. I rather hope I am hopelessly wrong!!

Paul


Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

I'd go for a top temp of 22.3C at Hurn on one day, or the other.

Long way off, but with a probable SW'ly flow off the relative cool sea
16-18°C may be nearer the mark at Hurn. If I had to pick somewhere I'd go
for 20-ish in London.

Jon.