Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by miles.
Dave R.

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

"Dave R." wrote in message
et...
No I havent made a mistake I do mean Darren Bett
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweath..._outlook.shtml and not
Darren Prescott. But even from Darren Prescott's Todays Model
Interpretation theres even a hint from him that next week is not the start
of something long lasting... "will see a ridge moving in from the west,
with a brief settled spell as a result." Brief is the operative word
here.
Dave R.

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

On Jul 15, 2:45*pm, "Dave R." wrote:
Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by miles.
Dave R.

How do you "know" it's not going to happen and how can you be the
"winner by miles" when summer is only half-way over? I'd be the first
to say "good guess" if you are correct, as to the outcome of the whole
summer (and you could well be)but I think Mon - Thurs next week has a
chance (but just a chance, let's see on this one) of being the best
part of the summer so far, for Southern Britain, with a UK max of 25C
being recorded on each of those 4 consecutive days. As for you knowing
exactly what will happen during the rest of the summer, or "knowing"
what the first half of the summer would have been like.......don't
make me laugh, Dave: your guess is/was almost as good as the MetOs.
*))

Areas of west London with 25C+ and sunshine this late afternoon.
Warmest-feeling day of the year in South Devon. Cooler and wetter for
most areas towards the weekend.

Paul

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

Warmest-feeling day of the year in South Devon. Cooler and wetter for most
areas towards the weekend.

Not here Paul. That is reserved (so far) for the 11th of May when it reached
27.9°C and a DP of 15.3°C, followed by the 9th of June when it reached
27.4°C and a DP of 15.8°C.

Today's max of 22.8°C and a DP of 14.7°C didn't quite match the above, but
it felt pleasantly warm nonetheless and I was tempted to head for the beach
but had too much to do.

Cloud moved back in again now and the wind has picked up and changed
direction from SW to NW.

(18:15), 19.4°C, RH 68%, DP 14.0°C, 1026.2 hPa (F), Wind 11 mph NW.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

Stop using the "south of england" as a measuring point for your crap
forecasts.

Your getting lamer by the day.



Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 15, 2:45 pm, "Dave R." wrote:
Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by miles.
Dave R.

How do you "know" it's not going to happen and how can you be the
"winner by miles" when summer is only half-way over? I'd be the first
to say "good guess" if you are correct, as to the outcome of the whole
summer (and you could well be)but I think Mon - Thurs next week has a
chance (but just a chance, let's see on this one) of being the best
part of the summer so far, for Southern Britain, with a UK max of 25C
being recorded on each of those 4 consecutive days. As for you knowing
exactly what will happen during the rest of the summer, or "knowing"
what the first half of the summer would have been like.......don't
make me laugh, Dave: your guess is/was almost as good as the MetOs.
*))

Areas of west London with 25C+ and sunshine this late afternoon.
Warmest-feeling day of the year in South Devon. Cooler and wetter for
most areas towards the weekend.

Paul

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

On Jul 15, 5:24*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 15, 2:45*pm, "Dave R." wrote:

Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by miles.
Dave R.

How do you "know" it's not going to happen and how can you be the
"winner by miles" when summer is only half-way over? I'd be the first
to say "good guess" if you are correct, as to the outcome of the whole
summer (and you could well be)but I think Mon - Thurs next week has a
chance (but just a chance, let's see on this one) of being the best
part of the summer so far, for Southern Britain, with a UK max of 25C
being recorded on each of those 4 consecutive days. As for you knowing
exactly what will happen during the rest of the summer, or "knowing"
what the first half of the summer would have been like.......don't
make me laugh, Dave: your guess is/was almost as good as the MetOs.
*))

Areas of west London with 25C+ and sunshine this late afternoon.
Warmest-feeling day of the year in South Devon. Cooler and wetter for
most areas towards the weekend.

Paul

OOOOOOh! Now that is interesting! The hints of "summer" arriving have
grown stronger overnight. Probably the greatest chance of an extended
(week, or so? Maybe a lot more) of high pressure dominance for the UK
and settled warm weather of the summer so far. The gfs shows such a
difference set-up at T240+ and the ems also shows the Azores high
building NE at T240. Not enogh confidence yet, that's the first time
that's appeared and there's only been two runs. It could be the
teasing that Dave R has rightly referred to again and another few gfs
runs could see the hints evaporating again, but if that is still there
tomorrow Morning, this fairly average summer, for some (disappointing
for others) could end up taking a turn for the better!

Next week still looks very good for Southern England, with a settled,
warm and sunny 4-day period from Monday.

Paul

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message
...
Warmest-feeling day of the year in South Devon. Cooler and wetter for
most
areas towards the weekend.

Not here Paul. That is reserved (so far) for the 11th of May when it
reached
27.9°C

I remember that day well, Nick. IIRC, 28.3°C was recorded (unofficially) on
the equipment at the Met Office HQ.

Jon. (east Devon)

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

On Jul 16, 9:05*am, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Nick Gardner" wrote in message

...

Warmest-feeling day of the year in South Devon. Cooler and wetter for
most
areas towards the weekend.

Not here Paul. That is reserved (so far) for the 11th of May when it
reached
27.9°C

I remember that day well, Nick. IIRC, 28.3°C was recorded (unofficially) on
the equipment at the Met Office HQ.

Jon. (east Devon)

Don't get me wrong guys. I know yesterday wasn't the warmest day in
South Devon this year. It was how yesterday felt. I'd just driven home
in a hopelessly hot and sweaty car, without AC and the garden, which
is a sun-trap, was sweltering.
Hence "warmest-feeling" day.

Paul

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

"N.E Zephyr" wrote in message
...
Stop using the "south of england" as a measuring point for your crap
forecasts.

Its only the extra day or two that the "South of England" may get over and
above the North of the country, which is were I expect you are somewhere?
with a name like N.E. Zephyr but when its unsettled its usually unsettled
everywhere. There are occasions "locally" when even the NE may get it
"locally" better on rare occasions admittedly. And we all think more of
where we are located than where other people are located by simple reason
its were we experience the conditions cos we bloody well live there. So how
you expect measuring points from say SE Scotland yet live in west Kent? for
example Its simple not feasible unless you just use data alone.
Dave R. [west London]

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jul 15, 5:24 pm, Dawlish wrote:
another few gfs
runs could see the hints evaporating again, but if that is still there
tomorrow Morning, this fairly average summer, for some (disappointing
for others) could end up taking a turn for the better!

Seems hint evaporation according to DP on his this morning's NWP.

Next week still looks very good for Southern England, with a settled,
warm and sunny 4-day period from Monday.

Thats whats been happening since May - 3 or 4 days settled spells with the
inbetweens being huge long weeks of anti summer type days.
Now there's a good expression to use, anti summer! must give that to Dan C.
on the TV :)
--
Dave R. [west London]

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

On Jul 16, 8:06 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 15, 5:24 pm, Dawlish wrote:



On Jul 15, 2:45 pm, "Dave R." wrote:

Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by miles.
Dave R.

How do you "know" it's not going to happen and how can you be the
"winner by miles" when summer is only half-way over? I'd be the first
to say "good guess" if you are correct, as to the outcome of the whole
summer (and you could well be)but I think Mon - Thurs next week has a
chance (but just a chance, let's see on this one) of being the best
part of the summer so far, for Southern Britain, with a UK max of 25C
being recorded on each of those 4 consecutive days. As for you knowing
exactly what will happen during the rest of the summer, or "knowing"
what the first half of the summer would have been like.......don't
make me laugh, Dave: your guess is/was almost as good as the MetOs.
*))

Areas of west London with 25C+ and sunshine this late afternoon.
Warmest-feeling day of the year in South Devon. Cooler and wetter for
most areas towards the weekend.

Paul

OOOOOOh! Now that is interesting! The hints of "summer" arriving have
grown stronger overnight. Probably the greatest chance of an extended
(week, or so? Maybe a lot more) of high pressure dominance for the UK
and settled warm weather of the summer so far. The gfs shows such a
difference set-up at T240+ and the ems also shows the Azores high
building NE at T240. Not enogh confidence yet, that's the first time
that's appeared and there's only been two runs. It could be the
teasing that Dave R has rightly referred to again and another few gfs
runs could see the hints evaporating again, but if that is still there
tomorrow Morning, this fairly average summer, for some (disappointing
for others) could end up taking a turn for the better!

Next week still looks very good for Southern England, with a settled,
warm and sunny 4-day period from Monday.

Paul

Looks like Sun-Wed from current output, Thursday might possibly be a
bit thundery, but warm.
I guess longer term it depends what happens after the thundery low on
the GFS around the 25th. At present the GFS indicates high pressure
builds again. Let's hope this happens...

Nick

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

On Jul 15, 2:45*pm, "Dave R." wrote:
Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by miles.
Dave R.

Every chance now of next week turning out the best of the year so
far.

Paul

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jul 15, 2:45 pm, "Dave R." wrote:
Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by miles.
Dave R.

Every chance now of next week turning out the best of the year so
far.

Paul

Damn, Its the wrong week lol
and you saved my snippet ...you're a hard man lol
Dave R

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

On Sun, 20 Jul 2008 at 11:28:49, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

Every chance now of next week turning out the best of the year so
far.

But how much of an achievement would that really be? :)
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Moderate confidence in Summer Arriving
 

On Jul 21, 7:44*am, Paul Hyett wrote:
On Sun, 20 Jul 2008 at 11:28:49, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :



Every chance now of next week turning out the best of the year so
far.

But how much of an achievement would that really be? :)
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Better than it has been. *))

I've just taken 8/1 on 90F, or higher in July and covered it with a
smaller bet on 87-90F in July at 7/1. I don't actually think that
either temperature will be achieved, but, then again, I'm not betting
at evens. What I think is that 30C will be achieved, but 7/1 is very
good odds on a temperature 0.55C higher being achieved and 8/1 is good
odds on a temperature of 2.2C higher being achieved.

Paul