On Jul 16, 7:36*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 16, 3:44*pm, "Dave R." wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jul 15, 5:24 pm, Dawlish wrote:

another few gfs
runs could see the hints evaporating again, but if that is still there
tomorrow Morning, this fairly average summer, for some (disappointing
for others) could end up taking a turn for the better!

Seems hint evaporation according to DP on his this morning's NWP.

Next week still looks very good for Southern England, with a settled,
warm and sunny 4-day period from Monday.

Thats whats been happening since May - 3 or 4 days settled spells with the
inbetweens being huge long weeks of anti summer type days.
Now there's a good expression to use, anti summer! must give that to Dan C.
on the TV
--
Dave R. [west London]

You said this, yesterday, at the start of this thread....

"Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is
thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to
an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this
wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update
on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by
miles."

Maybe you should wait until next Friday, before saying much more on
this one. If I had a choice, I'd back the warmest day of the year, so
far, happening during next week, rather than what you've said about an
extension of the Azores High not happening. We're highly unlikely to
see a wash out of a cool summer continuing next week. It looks like
that warm high pressure extension will happen and we may get a hot
bonus, with it settling to our East and dragging up a plume.

Not certain, but I'd back that against your cool and wet forecast and
the warmth and settled weather through the first 4 days of next week
(maybe thunderstorms on Thursday, Nick, true) is likely now, not just
possible. This warmth and settled weather has been on the charts, for
21st May onwards, for a few days now, despite what may have been said
elsewhere. Nothing is decided until outcome though - worth remembering
Dave! You can't be right before a forecast has actually come to
outcome. Your summer forecast has not yet come true and neither has
the MetOs.

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I referred to it yesterday, in passing, but the gfs and the ECM today
are again indicating some very warm air over the UK by midweek of next
week. It still remains a possibility and not a probability, but we
could see the warmest day of the year, so far, and 30C next week and
perhaps some meaty thunderstorms, as the next trough re-establishes
the unsettled weather pattern. Europe looks very hot at T240+ and
Scandinavia would have some really warm weather by then, if these
charts verify..

Today's charts do not indicate that the UK will be anything like as
warm after the latter part of next week. The unsettled summer looks as
if it will continue after an improvement for the South, next week, but
there is likely to be some very warm air close to the UK through to
the end of July. We MAY get some of that towards the end of the month
- but we may well continue unsettled. Presently, Dave R's thread title
looks spot on!

Paul

On Jul 18, 9:07*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 16, 7:36*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jul 16, 3:44*pm, "Dave R." wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....
On Jul 15, 5:24 pm, Dawlish wrote:

another few gfs
runs could see the hints evaporating again, but if that is still there
tomorrow Morning, this fairly average summer, for some (disappointing
for others) could end up taking a turn for the better!

Seems hint evaporation according to DP on his this morning's NWP.

Next week still looks very good for Southern England, with a settled,
warm and sunny 4-day period from Monday.

Thats whats been happening since May - 3 or 4 days settled spells with the
inbetweens being huge long weeks of anti summer type days.
Now there's a good expression to use, anti summer! must give that to Dan C.
on the TV
--
Dave R. [west London]

You said this, yesterday, at the start of this thread....

"Yet again the latest optimistic outlook for an Azores push is
thwarted. 21
July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008 Cool and Unsettled extension made to
an
otherwise thought of settling up. Well its not going to happen.
Haven't we heard it time and time again throughout the months of this
wash
out of a summer well here it is again from Darren Bett's recent update
on
the outlook. Its what I said ages ago so I'm the winner here by
miles."

Maybe you should wait until next Friday, before saying much more on
this one. If I had a choice, I'd back the warmest day of the year, so
far, happening during next week, rather than what you've said about an
extension of the Azores High not happening. We're highly unlikely to
see a wash out of a cool summer continuing next week. It looks like
that warm high pressure extension will happen and we may get a hot
bonus, with it settling to our East and dragging up a plume.

Not certain, but I'd back that against your cool and wet forecast and
the warmth and settled weather through the first 4 days of next week
(maybe thunderstorms on Thursday, Nick, true) is likely now, not just
possible. This warmth and settled weather has been on the charts, for
21st May onwards, for a few days now, despite what may have been said
elsewhere. Nothing is decided until outcome though - worth remembering
Dave! You can't be right before a forecast has actually come to
outcome. Your summer forecast has not yet come true and neither has
the MetOs.

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I referred to it yesterday, in passing, but the gfs and the ECM today
are again indicating some very warm air over the UK by midweek of next
week. It still remains a possibility and not a probability, but we
could see the warmest day of the year, so far, and 30C next week and
perhaps some meaty thunderstorms, as the next trough re-establishes
the unsettled weather pattern. Europe looks very hot at T240+ and
Scandinavia would have some really warm weather by then, if these
charts verify..

Today's charts do not indicate that the UK will be anything like as
warm after the latter part of next week. The unsettled summer looks as
if it will continue after an improvement for the South, next week, but
there is likely to be some very warm air close to the UK through to
the end of July. We MAY get some of that towards the end of the month
- but we may well continue unsettled. Presently, Dave R's thread title
looks spot on!

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Stil looking warm midweek. Mind you, it's a very interesting model
battle between the bubble of very warm air escaping Northwards from
North Africa and the incoming Atlantic trough trying to force it East.
Presently, it looks like the trough will win, towards the end of next
week, but forecasting at 10 days is a minefield. Yesterday, the Met
Office had;

"From Sunday (27th) to the following Friday it may become more
settled with a chance of some slightly more summery weather,
especially in the south."

I'm not convinced and I'm not sure many others are! BUT, the plume is
likely to continue its journey Northwards, bringing some very warm air
into Scandinavia, even if the warmest part of the plume just by-passes
us. Temps over the next 10 days in Scandinavia will be very
interesting and 30C is still possible here.

Paul

Paul