On Jul 30, 12:13*am, "Dave R." wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
summer still slumbers and is not yet dead - but I wouldn't back it's return,
just yet.

Paul

Slummer still slumbers? my arse it does. This is plainly riduculous Dawlish
if you are not backing its return just yet, then when are you? You [and all
of us] ain't got much left of summer, once August is out thats it and dont
everyone start on about you can get some decent Septembers I've heard all
that clutching at straws before. What, at 21C mid afternoon? big deal *- ha
thats Autumn or colloquilly known as an 'Indian Summer' not proper summer..
DaveR

If anyone, including you, can be sure of the NWP output for 10 days
hence, please forecast, as a result of your musings. The summer's
temps (OK, CET) are slightly above average so far. I do hope the "8"
year can be finally put to bed as the statistical aberration that it
is, at the end of August, but that's not knowable!

Paul

On Jul 29, 10:14*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 29, 8:24*pm, wrote:





On Jul 29, 6:34 pm, "Dave R." wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead,
Paul

I'd say it is, dead that is. The length of the cyclonic spells between the
brief settled spells April/May - the present has been far, far greater
thaqts without resorting to data only my observation.

MY INTERPRETATION::
Based on that then and as the weather declines into August, as it seems to
be on the cards to do, even somewhat, you could take it that the chance of
any more proper decent settled stuff is going to be well into late
September/October even.

Not sure if the first half of August is looking *too* bad - though
(typically, though perhaps less of a big deal this time of year than
others) there seems to be a fairly consistent, if short-lasting, "low
from hell" for the weekend of 9th/10th. Rest of the time though it
looks vaguely passable.

earlier darker evenings and rapid cooling after
4pm is whats to look forward to in any possibility of a settled late
September.

Warm evenings, even after dark, seem more typical of contemporary
Septembers though - even if the day max has not been record breaking.

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes; the "low from hell", Nick! It wasn't there on the 06z and then
the 12z gfs promises nothing like as nice conditions and gives us
autumn in the second week of August! Based upon the output over the
last 2 days, I would back cooler and showery, rather than settled and
warm, but there are such surprising changes with each run, at the
moment, that someone would have to offer me decent odds to actually
take the plunge and bet! I suppose I'm clutching at the chance that if
the gfs output is inconsistent, there must be a chance of a decent
August, overall! The problem is that the ECM 12z shows the "low from
hell" as well.

Who knows?.......and I do mean that, as no-one, IMO, at 10 days+,
actually does know. That's the really frustrating, but amazingly
interesting, thing!

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It doesn't look good. Yesterday's straws appear to have got fewer,
further apart and more slippery! Very little summery cheer on the 00z,
after tomorrow's probable 80F+in the SE marks the end of this warm
spell. Mixtures of showers and extended periods cyclonic rainfall for
almost everyone, at the weekend and out to the end of the first week
of August at least. There'll be the odd nice day, more of them in the
SE than anywhere else, but clouds and rain just hang around those gfs
and ECM charts. The only hope is the continuing inconsistency at 10
days+. How depressing!

Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jul 29, 10:14 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 29, 8:24 pm, wrote:





On Jul 29, 6:34 pm, "Dave R." wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

and the ECM, so summer may not yet be dead,
Paul

I'd say it is, dead that is. The length of the cyclonic spells between
the
brief settled spells April/May - the present has been far, far greater
thaqts without resorting to data only my observation.

MY INTERPRETATION::
Based on that then and as the weather declines into August, as it
seems to
be on the cards to do, even somewhat, you could take it that the
chance of
any more proper decent settled stuff is going to be well into late
September/October even.

Not sure if the first half of August is looking *too* bad - though
(typically, though perhaps less of a big deal this time of year than
others) there seems to be a fairly consistent, if short-lasting, "low
from hell" for the weekend of 9th/10th. Rest of the time though it
looks vaguely passable.

earlier darker evenings and rapid cooling after
4pm is whats to look forward to in any possibility of a settled late
September.

Warm evenings, even after dark, seem more typical of contemporary
Septembers though - even if the day max has not been record breaking.

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes; the "low from hell", Nick! It wasn't there on the 06z and then
the 12z gfs promises nothing like as nice conditions and gives us
autumn in the second week of August! Based upon the output over the
last 2 days, I would back cooler and showery, rather than settled and
warm, but there are such surprising changes with each run, at the
moment, that someone would have to offer me decent odds to actually
take the plunge and bet! I suppose I'm clutching at the chance that if
the gfs output is inconsistent, there must be a chance of a decent
August, overall! The problem is that the ECM 12z shows the "low from
hell" as well.

Who knows?.......and I do mean that, as no-one, IMO, at 10 days+,
actually does know. That's the really frustrating, but amazingly
interesting, thing!

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It doesn't look good. Yesterday's straws appear to have got fewer,
further apart and more slippery! Very little summery cheer on the 00z,
after tomorrow's probable 80F+in the SE marks the end of this warm
spell. How depressing!

Paul

quoteIt doesn't look good
ah finally! you appear to agree with me and me without all my gadgetry
Dave R

On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 at 03:08:03, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

It doesn't look good. Yesterday's straws appear to have got fewer,
further apart and more slippery! Very little summery cheer on the 00z,
after tomorrow's probable 80F+in the SE marks the end of this warm
spell. Mixtures of showers and extended periods cyclonic rainfall for
almost everyone, at the weekend and out to the end of the first week
of August at least. There'll be the odd nice day, more of them in the
SE than anywhere else, but clouds and rain just hang around those gfs
and ECM charts. The only hope is the continuing inconsistency at 10
days+. How depressing!

No sign of any cooler nights, though.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On Jul 30, 5:56*pm, Paul Hyett wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 at 03:08:03, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :



It doesn't look good. Yesterday's straws appear to have got fewer,
further apart and more slippery! Very little summery cheer on the 00z,
after tomorrow's probable 80F+in the SE marks the end of this warm
spell. Mixtures of showers and extended periods cyclonic rainfall for
almost everyone, at the weekend and out to the end of the first week
of August at least. There'll be the odd nice day, more of them in the
SE than anywhere else, but clouds and rain just hang around those gfs
and ECM charts. The only hope is the continuing inconsistency at 10
days+. How depressing!

No sign of any cooler nights, though.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Not that many signs of cooler days either, with the slightly warmer
06z and the warmer still 12z. Straws tightly clutched!

Paul

On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 at 10:47:54, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

No sign of any cooler nights, though.

Not that many signs of cooler days either, with the slightly warmer
06z and the warmer still 12z. Straws tightly clutched!

Well, low 20's is surely cooler than mid-high 20's...

I find warm nights very enervating through lack of sleep, something you
can't make up for during the day - unless the boss is out of the
office...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On Jul 31, 7:50*am, Paul Hyett wrote:
On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 at 10:47:54, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :



No sign of any cooler nights, though.

Not that many signs of cooler days either, with the slightly warmer
06z and the warmer still 12z. Straws tightly clutched!

Well, low 20's is surely cooler than mid-high 20's...

I find warm nights very enervating through lack of sleep, something you
can't make up for during the day - unless the boss is out of the
office...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Pretty awful gfs and ECM again, this morning, after some warmer (but
not settled) weather early next week. Still inconsistency at T240+,
but the straws are a lot more difficult to find today. That looks as
if it could be a cool washout to mid-Aug after next Wednesday. That
gets a yeuch! It would need a few nore runs before it would be written
into a forecast by me though.

Paul

On Aug 1, 8:07 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 31, 7:50 am, Paul Hyett wrote:



On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 at 10:47:54, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

No sign of any cooler nights, though.

Not that many signs of cooler days either, with the slightly warmer
06z and the warmer still 12z. Straws tightly clutched!

Well, low 20's is surely cooler than mid-high 20's...

I find warm nights very enervating through lack of sleep, something you
can't make up for during the day - unless the boss is out of the
office...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Pretty awful gfs and ECM again, this morning, after some warmer (but
not settled) weather early next week. Still inconsistency at T240+,
but the straws are a lot more difficult to find today. That looks as
if it could be a cool washout to mid-Aug after next Wednesday. That
gets a yeuch! It would need a few nore runs before it would be written
into a forecast by me though.

Paul

Let's hope not. I was hoping this would be a typical 1998-2004 even
year, but the runs today suggest the worst pair of summers for many
years overall for lack of warm weather, possibly worse even than the
1992/93 pair - both those summers had more settled spells than the
current one. I also see the mean temps in southern England in July
were (slightly) below the 1971-00 normal - why, why, why do July and
August (where below average temperatures destroy the aesthetic appeal
of the season completely, unlike the autumn, winter and spring) have
the highest tendency for below average temperatures in recent years?

Nick

On Aug 1, 8:07 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 31, 7:50 am, Paul Hyett wrote:



On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 at 10:47:54, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

No sign of any cooler nights, though.

Not that many signs of cooler days either, with the slightly warmer
06z and the warmer still 12z. Straws tightly clutched!

Well, low 20's is surely cooler than mid-high 20's...

I find warm nights very enervating through lack of sleep, something you
can't make up for during the day - unless the boss is out of the
office...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Pretty awful gfs and ECM again, this morning, after some warmer (but
not settled) weather early next week. Still inconsistency at T240+,
but the straws are a lot more difficult to find today. That looks as
if it could be a cool washout to mid-Aug after next Wednesday. That
gets a yeuch! It would need a few nore runs before it would be written
into a forecast by me though.

Paul

0600 GFS looking more hopeful from the 9th. Seems the "low from hell"
has advanced a couple of days influencing Wed-Fri next week. There
remains the possibility we'll only get 2 truly bad days (Thurs/Fri
next week) in the south at least, with hopefully warm SSW winds on
Wednesday despite the low being nearby. Let's hope the 0600 resembles
the truth more than the 0000!

Nick

On Fri, 1 Aug 2008 at 01:52:09, wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

I was hoping this would be a typical 1998-2004 even
year, but the runs today suggest the worst pair of summers for many
years overall for lack of warm weather, possibly worse even than the
1992/93 pair - both those summers had more settled spells than the
current one. I also see the mean temps in southern England in July
were (slightly) below the 1971-00 normal - why, why, why do July and
August (where below average temperatures destroy the aesthetic appeal
of the season completely, unlike the autumn, winter and spring) have
the highest tendency for below average temperatures in recent years?

Yes, I'd much rather such a tendency applied in Jan/Feb...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)