Today's model interpretation (6/08/09)
 

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0549z, 6th September 2008

The models are split today. ECM shows a trough crossing the UK during the
latter half of next week, with rain for all. GFS instead shows a weak ridge
by the end of the week, followed by a prolonged col.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Low pressure covers England and Wales, with NE'lies elsewhere. The low moves
eastwards tomorrow, with northerlies and NNW'lies as a result. Monday sees
the low move over the North Sea, with a col over much of the UK. Southerlies
and SSE'lies cover the UK on Tuesday as a weak ridge moves over England.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a ridge over England and Wales, with the jet
heading northwards over Scotland and Northern Ireland. Upstream there's a
trough, with a strong and zonal jet over the western Atlantic. There are
southerlies aloft at the 500hPa level, again with a trough to the west. MetO
shows a trough to the west too, while ECM has upper SW'lies instead. GEM
brings an upper col over the UK.
At the surface GFS shows southerlies for all with a deep low to the NW and a
trough to the west. MetO has a shallower low to the west, resulting in
SSE'lies. SSW'lies affect the UK with ECM, due to a low to the SW. GEM has
low pressure over northern Scotland, with light WSW'lies elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a deep low to the west, leading to strong to gale
force SSE'lies and southerlies. The low fills on day 7, with lighter
WSW'lies for all.
A ridge covers the UK on day 6 with GFS, leading to light winds. The ridge
persists on day 7, although by then strong SW'lies affect NW Scotland from a
low to the NW.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM the UK lies under a col. England and Wales remain under a
col on day 9, as a high to the north of Scandinavia blocks an approaching
low from the west. Southerlies start to affect Northern Ireland and
Scotland. On day 10 the high builds slightly towards the UK, with light
winds for all.
SW'lies cover Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 8 with GFS, while England
and Wales lie under a col. A col covers most areas on day 9 and on day 10
there's little change.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles continue show a warmer spell next week.

Today's model interpretation (6/08/09)
 

Darren Prescott wrote:

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0549z, 6th September 2008

The models are split today. ECM shows a trough crossing the UK during
the latter half of next week, with rain for all. GFS instead shows a
weak ridge by the end of the week, followed by a prolonged col.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Low pressure covers England and Wales, with NE'lies elsewhere. The
low moves eastwards tomorrow, with northerlies and NNW'lies as a
result. Monday sees the low move over the North Sea, with a col over
much of the UK. Southerlies and SSE'lies cover the UK on Tuesday as a
weak ridge moves over England.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream
chart shows a ridge over England and Wales, with the jet heading
northwards over Scotland and Northern Ireland. Upstream there's a
trough, with a strong and zonal jet over the western Atlantic. There
are southerlies aloft at the 500hPa level, again with a trough to the
west. MetO shows a trough to the west too, while ECM has upper
SW'lies instead. GEM brings an upper col over the UK. At the surface
GFS shows southerlies for all with a deep low to the NW and a trough
to the west. MetO has a shallower low to the west, resulting in
SSE'lies. SSW'lies affect the UK with ECM, due to a low to the SW.
GEM has low pressure over northern Scotland, with light WSW'lies
elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a deep low to the west, leading to strong to
gale force SSE'lies and southerlies. The low fills on day 7, with
lighter WSW'lies for all. A ridge covers the UK on day 6 with GFS,
leading to light winds. The ridge persists on day 7, although by then
strong SW'lies affect NW Scotland from a low to the NW.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM the UK lies under a col. England and Wales remain
under a col on day 9, as a high to the north of Scandinavia blocks an
approaching low from the west. Southerlies start to affect Northern
Ireland and Scotland. On day 10 the high builds slightly towards the
UK, with light winds for all. SW'lies cover Scotland and Northern
Ireland on day 8 with GFS, while England and Wales lie under a col. A
col covers most areas on day 9 and on day 10 there's little change.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ext=1&y=141&ru
n=0&ville=Londres) The ensembles continue show a warmer spell next
week.

Would that be the remnants of HANNA ?

--

Today's model interpretation (6/08/09)
 

On Sep 7, 1:01*am, "zaax" wrote:
Darren Prescott wrote:
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0549z, 6th September 2008

The models are split today. ECM shows a trough crossing the UK during
the latter half of next week, with rain for all. GFS instead shows a
weak ridge by the end of the week, followed by a prolonged col.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Low pressure covers England and Wales, with NE'lies elsewhere. The
low moves eastwards tomorrow, with northerlies and NNW'lies as a
result. Monday sees the low move over the North Sea, with a col over
much of the UK. Southerlies and SSE'lies cover the UK on Tuesday as a
weak ridge moves over England.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png/
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif/
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.phpThe jetstream
chart shows a ridge over England and Wales, with the jet heading
northwards over Scotland and Northern Ireland. Upstream there's a
trough, with a strong and zonal jet over the western Atlantic. There
are southerlies aloft at the 500hPa level, again with a trough to the
west. MetO shows a trough to the west too, while ECM has upper
SW'lies instead. GEM brings an upper col over the UK. *At the surface
GFS shows southerlies for all with a deep low to the NW and a trough
to the west. MetO has a shallower low to the west, resulting in
SSE'lies. SSW'lies affect the UK with ECM, due to a low to the SW.
GEM has low pressure over northern Scotland, with light WSW'lies
elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a deep low to the west, leading to strong to
gale force SSE'lies and southerlies. The low fills on day 7, with
lighter WSW'lies for all. *A ridge covers the UK on *day 6 with GFS,
leading to light winds. The ridge persists on day 7, although by then
strong SW'lies affect NW Scotland from a low to the NW.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM the UK lies under a col. England and Wales remain
under a col on day 9, as a high to the north of Scandinavia blocks an
approaching low from the west. Southerlies start to affect Northern
Ireland and Scotland. On day 10 the high builds slightly towards the
UK, with light winds for all. *SW'lies cover Scotland and Northern
Ireland on day 8 with GFS, while England and Wales lie under a col. A
col covers most areas on day 9 and on day 10 there's little change.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The ensembles continue show a warmer spell next
week.

Would that be the remnants of HANNA ?

Hanna is still going. If this is what you mean:

This is the remnants of Hanna:

2.8 09/06 05:51 62.9 -150.1 C Alaska
3.2 09/06 05:08 62.6 -148.1 C Alaska
4.3 09/06 04:26 51.3 -169.8 Fox
Islands
2.9 09/06 04:01 54.4 -163.0 Unimak
Isle
4.0 09/06 04:00 37.9 -122.0 S F Bay
Area
3.5 09/06 03:09 57.5 -149.8 Gulf Of
Alaska
2.6 09/06 01:14 38.2 -117.1 Nevada
4.9 09/06 01:10 49.8 -130.1 Vancouver
Isle
2.8 09/05 23:47 19.4 -155.2 Hawaii
2.8 09/05 23:12 60.0. -151.5 Kenai
Peninsula
4.6 09/05 21:54 32.4 -115.2 Baja Cal
2.8 09/05 21:35 45.7 -120.3 Oregon
2.6 09/05 21:22 40.7 -123.5 N Cal
4.4 09/05 20:25 19.3 -109.0 Revilla
Gigedo
2.9 09/05 20:25 57.0 -154.4 Kodiak
Island
2.6 09/05 17:10 19.4 -155.3 Hawaii
2.7 09/05 15:27 60.2 -153.0 S Alaska

This is about when Gustav and Hanna got to the Carolinas. Something
just a little bit different got triggered.

2.6 09/05 10:23 37.2 -119.9 C Cal

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...uakes_all.html

The same thing occurred with Dolly and Edouard, I believe. Difficult
to check just yet but here are the phenomena and dates, location &
etc.:

08/07 23:56 24.92S 67.66W 4.3 Salta, Argentina
08/07 23:41 12.53N 87.73W 4.9 Near Coast Of Nicaragua
08/07 23:05 30.93S 71.65W 3.5 Coquimbo, Chile
08/07 22:58 9.13S 109.51W 5.6 Central East Pacific Rise
08/07 22:27 56.73N 148.14W 2.5 Gulf Of Alaska
08/07 22:17 52.13N 175.47W 4.2 Andreanof Isl, Aleutian Is.
08/07 22:06 52.15N 175.40W 3.5 Andreanof Isl, Aleutian Is.
08/07 21:48 52.13N 175.37W 3.7 Andreanof Isl, Aleutian Is.
08/07 21:43 52.12N 175.43W 3.4 Andreanof Isl, Aleutian Is.
08/07 21:25 52.09N 175.48W 3.1 Andreanof Isl, Aleutian Is.
08/07 20:58 52.01N 175.45W 4.1 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 20:49 52.06N 175.41W 3.6 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 20:28 31.85S 69.32W 3.3 San Juan, Argentina
08/07 20:05 52.17N 175.38W 3.0 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 19:54 52.18N 175.43W 3.3 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 19:53 52.00N 175.48W 3.2 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 19:52 51.87N 175.34W 3.4 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 19:40 52.14N 175.40W 4.3 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 19:36 52.12N 175.42W 3.0 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 19:31 52.01N 175.57W 3.4 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 18:37 52.07N 175.58W 3.6 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 18:30 52.28N 175.71W 5.8 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 18:18 52.09N 175.52W 3.4 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 18:16 52.09N 175.50W 4.3 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 18:11 41.43N 121.70W 3.4 Northern California
08/07 18:08 52.11N 175.41W 2.9 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 17:56 52.21N 175.57W 4.2 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 17:56 51.97N 175.48W 3.0 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 16:49 51.94N 175.26W 3.3 Andreanof Isl, Aleutian Is.
08/07 16:45 52.22N 175.47W 3.4 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 16:44 52.10N 175.46W 2.6 Andreanof Isl, Aleutian Is.
08/07 16:01 52.14N 175.55W 4.3 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 15:27 52.27N 175.60W 4.5 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 15:14 52.13N 175.57W 4.2 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 15:09 51.95N 175.46W 2.8 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 15:00 52.22N 175.49W 4.1 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 14:44 52.05N 175.56W 4.0 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 14:34 52.06N 175.48W 4.1 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 14:20 52.03N 175.49W 3.1 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 13:57 52.15N 175.44W 3.4 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 13:52 52.04N 175.45W 3.3 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 13:31 52.09N 175.54W 4.1 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 13:04 51.99N 175.45W 2.9 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 13:03 52.02N 175.45W 3.0 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 10:12 52.29N 175.77W 4.6 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.
08/07 09:08 52.56N 175.42W 4.5 Andreanof Is., Aleutian Is.

The correct data at the time of writing can be verified he

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/

Today's model interpretation (6/08/09)
 

Darren Prescott wrote:
Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ext=1&y=141&ru
n=0&ville=Londres) The ensembles continue show a warmer spell next
week.

"zaax" wrote...

Would that be the remnants of HANNA ?

.... the sequence here would suggest that ex T/S Hanna is in there
somewhere and helping to bring warmer air from southerly latitudes.

http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/thumbs.html

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023