Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb. However the Met Office is still going with zonal right to
the end of the 15 day forecast period. So which will be right?
Personally I hope that any further good cold spells will come before
mid Feb - after that there'll be too much daylight to sustain possible
snow cover, at least in the south. Linked to this, any mild spells
after mid Feb will be much more welcome than at present as it'll feel
like proper spring, at least down here....

Nick

On Thu, 22 Jan 2009 10:27:24 -0800, nick150971 wrote:

snip
Personally I
hope that any further good cold spells will come before mid Feb - after
that there'll be too much daylight to sustain possible snow cover, at
least in the south.
snip

Unless it keeps on snowing! (eg Kent, late Feb/early Mar 2005)

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

David Buttery wrote:
On Thu, 22 Jan 2009 10:27:24 -0800, nick150971 wrote:

snip
Personally I
hope that any further good cold spells will come before mid Feb - after
that there'll be too much daylight to sustain possible snow cover, at
least in the south.
snip

Unless it keeps on snowing! (eg Kent, late Feb/early Mar 2005)


Come on lads, we've been here so many times!

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

In article
,
writes:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

I see that the 1200Z operational run has now gone for this. Should it
happen to come off, it looks quite potent.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

On Jan 22, 6:27*pm, wrote:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

It would be fitting to see this winter culminate in at least 1 decent,
old-fashioned snowy spell. It feels as if it's been gradually
building up to something since the early start we had in October.

- Tom.

wrote in message
...
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb. However the Met Office is still going with zonal right to
the end of the 15 day forecast period. So which will be right?
Personally I hope that any further good cold spells will come before
mid Feb - after that there'll be too much daylight to sustain possible
snow cover, at least in the south. Linked to this, any mild spells
after mid Feb will be much more welcome than at present as it'll feel
like proper spring, at least down here....

Nick

The winter forecast was updated earlier today..
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/.../winter2008_9/

Jon.

Tom Bennett wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:27 pm, wrote:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

It would be fitting to see this winter culminate in at least 1 decent,
old-fashioned snowy spell. It feels as if it's been gradually
building up to something since the early start we had in October.

- Tom.

It's all after 7 days on GFS, you know it won't happen, don't punish
yourselves again. Now wheres those pills?

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith (Southend) wrote:
Tom Bennett wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:27 pm, wrote:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

It would be fitting to see this winter culminate in at least 1
decent, old-fashioned snowy spell. It feels as if it's been
gradually building up to something since the early start we had in
October. - Tom.

It's all after 7 days on GFS, you know it won't happen, don't punish
yourselves again. Now wheres those pills?

Well I thought I hinted at a possible block going into Feb. a few days ago.
Also PE a couple of weeks back. But where will it be? Conditions are coming
right, the jet has sunk south and it cannot get any further south without
breaking up due to decreased thermal contrast through diabatic warming of
the cold air, and once that happens the longwave pattern re-aligns opening
the door for a change of type. Easterlies are dynamically and scientifically
sensible Keith, ECMWF has been hinting at a change of type too, also JMA
both excellent models as we know. GFS won't get the detail we know that, but
I would say that there is a 60% chance now of another block developing by
the end of the month.

Will
--

Will Hand wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:
Tom Bennett wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:27 pm, wrote:
Three GFS runs now indicate an easterly setting in during the first
week of Feb.
snip

It would be fitting to see this winter culminate in at least 1
decent, old-fashioned snowy spell. It feels as if it's been
gradually building up to something since the early start we had in
October. - Tom.
It's all after 7 days on GFS, you know it won't happen, don't punish
yourselves again. Now wheres those pills?

Well I thought I hinted at a possible block going into Feb. a few days ago.
Also PE a couple of weeks back. But where will it be? Conditions are coming
right, the jet has sunk south and it cannot get any further south without
breaking up due to decreased thermal contrast through diabatic warming of
the cold air, and once that happens the longwave pattern re-aligns opening
the door for a change of type. Easterlies are dynamically and scientifically
sensible Keith, ECMWF has been hinting at a change of type too, also JMA
both excellent models as we know. GFS won't get the detail we know that, but
I would say that there is a 60% chance now of another block developing by
the end of the month.

Will
--



Thanks Will, I thought my 'prod with a stick' might get a response ;-)

All the same the weather is a lot more interesting atm, tonights low
could throw up some news.

Thanks
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Thu, 22 Jan 2009 23:13:26 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

All the same the weather is a lot more interesting atm, tonights low
could throw up some news.

It is really very very quiet down here (apart from the vixen barking
as normal) and its rather odd watching the pressure dropping off
rapidly but very little wind, and light rain as I write (3.6mm since
1800)
R
Dorset