On Feb 8, 11:13*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

. 253...



"Will Hand" wrote in
:

MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little
further west than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted. Satellite imagery also
shows a developing cloud head and striations in the warm air, both
indicative that rapid deepening is imminent. This is going to be one
hell of a storm I fancy. Batten down the hatches guys we have a big
one on the way. These storms often start to come north as they deepen
but then the rapid rotation and dig in of cold air usually makes them
spin almost "loop the loop" and head off rapidly on a more eastward
course.

Will - if a bent-back front is forming in this case (not looked at the
thermal structure in the progs), this has always been an interesting on
for
me in terms of "unexpected" snow.

That's quite a sizeable cloud head in the imagery. Very threatening.

Richard

-----------------------------
Could somebody estimate at what times of day in each area we can expect the
most severe conditions so that we can warn people, be it wind, rain or snow?
Dave- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Forget snow Dave, forget severe, just think rain and windy and there
you will have it.

On Feb 8, 10:01*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Richard Dixon writes:





"Martin Rowley" wrote in
:

... going to be a tricky one this: both for the forecasters and the
services on the ground dealing with the results (both in BI & France).
I don't like these beasts that develop near the left-exit of one jet
and the right-entrance of another (both developmental areas). As Will
says, it's very dependent upon the model analysis whether the outcome
(NWP) is a perfect forecast - but whatever, this is going to be a 'bit
of a do'!

Martin - I take heart in the consistency of all the models dealing with
this development over the past 5 days.

Of course they could be all wrong in terms of intensity, track etc. but one
would hope that the inter-model and inter-run consistency points to a
hopefully good forecast !

I think one problem is that an error of as little as say 30 miles in the
N-S positioning of the track could make a big difference in where gets
snow and where gets only rain.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
* * * * * * information."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well if thats the case then why not say so ionstaed of all this orange
nonesense.

On Feb 8, 11:39*pm, wrote:
On Feb 8, 9:07*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

MetO 18Z analysis has the centre of the developing low a little further west
than the T+6 UKMO and GFS wanted. Satellite imagery also shows a developing
cloud head and striations in the warm air, both indicative that rapid
deepening is imminent. This is going to be one hell of a storm I fancy.
Batten down the hatches guys we have a big one on the way. These storms
often start to come north as they deepen but then the rapid rotation and dig
in of cold air usually makes them spin almost "loop the loop" and head off
rapidly on a more eastward course. It would seem that the predicted track of
running up the Channel is about right, but I expect it might well be deeper
and a tad slower in coming and going. Lots of wind and rain and snow in NW
quadrant.

Will
--

Will I do like you, but I feel you are getting a tad carried away, it
will al be forgotten this time next week

Yes, this is some way off being storm of the century, but it won't
all be forgotten if you find the Medway in your kitchen.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Sun, 8 Feb 2009 23:13:56 -0000, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:


Could somebody estimate at what times of day in each area we can expect the
most severe conditions so that we can warn people, be it wind, rain or snow?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNpH5tx4Pu8

I guess the keepers keep an eye on wind speeds?

R

Yes, this is some way off being storm of the century, but it won't
all be forgotten if you find the Medway in your kitchen.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.
-------------------
I definitely wouldn't forget the Medway in my kitchen, especially if I lived
in South London :-(

Dave

On Sun, 08 Feb 2009 16:05:37 -0800, Tudor Hughes wrote:

Yes, this is some way off being storm of the century, but it won't
all be forgotten if you find the Medway in your kitchen.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I can guarantee that if I find the Medway in my kitchen it will never,
ever be forgotten!

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

David Buttery wrote:

I can guarantee that if I find the Medway in my kitchen it will never,
ever be forgotten!

I can think of worse things to find in your kitchen... Oh, it's the
Medway... Perhaps not!

Jonathan