Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

My hunch is that of Will's forecast will be closer to the truth.. I believe
the planet's temperature is stabilising and may start to fall over the
coming years, but even if that turns out to be the case is does not preclude
hot summers. I just feel that this summer will be dry , sunny no major
temperature records broken but far better then the last two. Hey what do I
know?



I have a piece of seaweed in the airing cupboard and it is bone dry. ;-)
I am therefore going for Will's hunch.

--
Howard Neil

Quoting from message
posted on 27 Mar 2009 by Nick Gardner
I would like to add:

increasing hunch that this summer is likely to be very dry with long warm
spells interspersed with a few very localised dramatic thunderstorms.

Something in me bones thinks you might be right Will. What you forecast
would be a continuation of the weather regime we have had since autumn last
year.

Oh dear! I'd better warn Child to find someone reliable to water her
pots of plants in the back yard as she'll be away for 3 weeks in
June!!

--
..ElaineJ. Briallen Traditional Crafts at http://www.briallen.co.uk
..Virtual. Corn Dollies, Handmade Felt, Coasters, Handmade Soap
StrongArm Jones' Pages at http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/ejones
..RISC PC. Corwen, North Wales; Steam Traction;CMMGB&Yukon Volunteers.

On Mar 27, 7:34*pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:
On 27 Mar, 19:31, smallbabe wrote:





On Mar 27, 10:08*am, "Will Hand" wrote:

Take this with a huge pinch of salt, but over the past week I have had an
increasing hunch that this summer is likely to be very dry with long warm
spells interspersed with a few very localised dramatic thunderstorms. Not a
record breaker in terms of temperature but notable for its dryness with the
Azores high closer than normal. Are my hunches worth anything? I'll let you
all be the judge of that :-)

Will
--

Just so long as you don't claim it as a "forecast" when it happens to
be dry warm and sunny. There is absolutely no relaible way of telling
what the UK summer will be like, from the viewpoint of the end of
March of the same year. *)) Yor hunches are worth nothing, I'm
afraid; except to other people that have hunches.

Dawlish I believe?

Graham
Penzance- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It is he.

Tudor Hughes.

In message , Lawrence Jenkins
writes

My hunch is that of Will's forecast will be closer to the truth.. I believe
the planet's temperature is stabilising and may start to fall over the
coming years, but even if that turns out to be the case is does not preclude
hot summers. I just feel that this summer will be dry , sunny no major
temperature records broken but far better then the last two. Hey what do I
know?



Going on your posts to this group, I'd suggest you know nothing.

--


Jim

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
Col wrote:

Ah, the good old 'European Monsoon'.
Manage to avoid that it could be a good summer.
If not, average to bad.

Like 1975?

I could do without the snow in June though!
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"smallbabe" wrote in message
...
On Mar 27, 7:57 pm, "Col" wrote:
"smallbabe" wrote in message



See a summer forecast now? It's not "a hunch" it's a guess, or even
worse, a hope, that the guesser/hoper desperately wants to come true
to bolster their reputation. As long as no-one returns to a hunch to
claim it as a forecast, I'm happy, but the temptation is far too much
for most, when the hunch sometimes turns out to be true.

If it does happen, Will at least won't be crowing about it. and
smugly saying that he predicted it way back in march.
He is also the first to hold up his hands and admit when one of
his forecasts goes wrong.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

John Hall wrote:

I can't find a book by Lamb with a title similar to that. Are you sure
the book you are thinking of wasn't by the other pre-eminent British
climatologist, Gordon Manley? It sounds very reminiscent of his "Climate
and the British Scene". You should be able to get a second-hand copy
through Amazon with no trouble.

My 1954 copy of "The English Climate" is by C E P Brooks and, for nostalgia
freaks, comes with a foreword by Sir David Brunt.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy

On Mar 28, 6:46*am, "Col" wrote:
"smallbabe" wrote in message

...
On Mar 27, 7:57 pm, "Col" wrote:

"smallbabe" wrote in message


He is also the first to hold up his hands and admit when one of
his forecasts goes wrong.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Does he Col? Have you always Will? Where's the evidence? Where's the
evidence for any single Internet weather group forecaster/ hunch-
merchant being of any use whatsoever? In my 6 years of Internet
weather groups I haven't found a single one (and I really do mean not
a single one - if there is one, someone show me and if no-one does, or
no-one comes forward with their own records, it proves my point
perfectly) that has tracked their record in public, gone back to
analyse each and every forecast, published percentage accuracy figures
on a continuous forecast-by-forecast basis and thus has left no legacy
of any forecasting prowess whatsoever. Internet weather group
"forecasting" is based on pure guesswork and though the guesswork mey
well be portrayed with excellent meteorologocal knowledge,
nevertheless, it is pure guesswork.

I'll bet you a pound to a penny that this, perfectly rational and
wholly accurate criticism, is met not with acceptance, but with
incredulance, sycophantic anectdotal evidence of the brilliance of
favoured forecasters, dismissiveness and outright anger, which will
lead to insults. The desire to protect the "forecaster" (no matter how
idiotic the basis for the forecast and no matter how useless the
outcomes of that person's guesses over time) from the savage attacks
of commonsense and truth, overrides everything else and the
"forecaster's" reputation is perpetuated, usually at the expense of
the inquisitor.

Let me repeat again: there isn't a single internet weather forecaster,
at any range over 1 week, who is of any use whatsoever. If there
is.......someone produce the evidence to show me that there is and
I'll change my mind.

Paul

PS That applies to the idiot who thinks he has solved the problem of
forecasting earthquakes too. As soon as I debunked that, by actually
following and analysing his forecasts, sulks, insults and profanities
were offered in place of evidence that the forecasts were in any way
correct.

SNIP
I can't find a book by Lamb with a title similar to that. Are you sure
the book you are thinking of wasn't by the other pre-eminent British
climatologist, Gordon Manley?
--
John Hall * * * *

It's in front of me.

The English Climate
H H Lamb
The English Universities Press
1964

I believe C E P brookes did an earlier version it was based on, but H
H Lambs is a superb reference book.

Graham
Penzance

"smallbabe" wrote in message
...
On Mar 28, 6:46 am, "Col" wrote:
"smallbabe" wrote in message

...
On Mar 27, 7:57 pm, "Col" wrote:

"smallbabe" wrote in message


He is also the first to hold up his hands and admit when one of
his forecasts goes wrong.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Does he Col? Have you always Will? Where's the evidence?

In my experience, yes he does.

Where's the
evidence for any single Internet weather group forecaster/ hunch-
merchant being of any use whatsoever?

I can't vouch for any others, but I wasn't talking about any others.
I was talking about Will.

In my 6 years of Internet
weather groups I haven't found a single one (and I really do mean not
a single one - if there is one, someone show me and if no-one does, or
no-one comes forward with their own records, it proves my point
perfectly)

Erm no, actually.
You are the one making the assertion, it is up to *you* to demonstrate
your point, not challenging others to counter your argument and if they
fail to do so, considering your point to be proven.


PS That applies to the idiot who thinks he has solved the problem of
forecasting earthquakes too. As soon as I debunked that, by actually
following and analysing his forecasts, sulks, insults and profanities
were offered in place of evidence that the forecasts were in any way
correct.

Even the most casual of observers could work out that Weatherlawyer's
ramblings are utter nonsense. Only you ever actually bothered to
*prove* it
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl