Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]() F'cst hot dry summer? The Oak has been out for some time now, but still waiting for the Ash to bread bud. So expect only a splash. jeff |
#2
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
F'cst hot dry summer?
The Oak has been out for some time now, but still waiting for the Ash to bread bud. So expect only a splash. jeff Yes, we noticed and commented on that last week. The oaks in Argyll were in leaf, but the ashes were all still dormant. Fingers crossed! Anne |
#3
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On May 1, 8:55*am, "Anne Burgess"
wrote: F'cst hot dry summer? The Oak has been out for some time now, but still waiting for the Ash to bread bud. So expect only a splash. jeff Yes, we noticed and commented on that last week. The oaks in Argyll were in leaf, but the ashes were all still dormant. Fingers crossed! Anne The Met Office don't seem to have given any reasons for their forecast of a hot dry summer. I wonder if they have been consulting arborealists :-? Cheers, Alastair. |
#4
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
F'cst hot dry summer?
The Oak has been out for some time now, but still waiting for the Ash to bread bud. So expect only a splash. .... from "Red Sky at Night, Shepherd's Delight" [Paul Marriott], where he analyses many such 'country' sayings, there are several which link the leafing behaviour of the Oak and Ash. "When the oak comes out before the ash, there will be fine weather in harvest; but when the ash comes out before the oak, the harvest will be wet": this was tested over a period of 122 years for data in Norfolk. The results come out between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 correct depending on the sequence, i.e., no useful signal. Various couplets are given which mention the word 'choke' (meaning drought: country roads dry/dusty), e.g. ... " When the ash is out before the oak, then we may expect a choke; when the oak is out before the ash, then we may expect a splash "; note this is the *reverse* of the implied indication above - oak before ash implying rain, ash before oak implying dry: this too produced lacklustre returns, with a rating of 'Poor' (17-32% correct). One maxim which also contradicts the oft-quoted implication is:- " If the oak is out before the ash, twill be a summer of wet and splash; but if the ash is before the oak, twill be a summer of fire and smoke "; The first part (oak before ash = wet summer) had a success rate of 'Fair' (33-48%); the second part (ash before oak = dry) rated 'Poor' (as above). But we don't need even these analyses to emphasise how wary of such we should be. From the Woodland Trust site at:- http://www.woodland-trust.org.uk/ From 2007 data for Ash and Oak (pedunculate) we have:... Average leaf-budburst Ash = 21st April Average leaf-budburst Oak = 8th April That is, 'Oak before Ash' .... implies a 'splash'? May, June & July 2007 were three very wet months - the wettest such sequence in the England & Wales Precipitation series. So, was that a 'splash' or a 'soak' :-) I don't see any reason why well-rooted, healthy trees should be able to *forecast* a season ahead. They respond to last year's events, and immediate weather 'input', such as sunshine, air & soil temperature & soil moisture. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 |
#5
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
"Alastair"
The Met Office don't seem to have given any reasons for their forecast of a hot dry summer. I wonder if they have been consulting arborealists :-? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...ce/summer2009/ follow the appropriate links for various presentations etc. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 |
#6
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On May 1, 11:41*am, "Martin Rowley"
wrote: "Alastair" The Met Office don't seem to have given any reasons for their forecast of a hot dry summer. I wonder if they have been consulting arborealists :-? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...ce/summer2009/ follow the appropriate links for various presentations etc. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 Thanks for that link Martin. But it still does not tell me the data on which they based their predictions. They mention that "The Met Office has experts which understand how all of the above interact to provide a comprehensive picture for the season ahead." Presumably, the data and weightings is a trade secret. Perhaps the clue is that they are expecting an El Nino, which should lead to a blocking high in north west Europe. An El Nino could also spell a death blow to the Arctic sea ice. Cheers, Alastair. |
#7
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
"Alastair" wrote in message
... But it still does not tell me the data on which they based their predictions. Whilst it's not the whole story the output from the seasonal dynamical model can be viewed on the link to the right of this page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...nal/index.html (registration required) - then select Europe in the global seasonal category maps. Jon. |
#8
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
In article ,
Edward J Milan writes: F'cst hot dry summer? The Oak has been out for some time now, but still waiting for the Ash to bread bud. So expect only a splash. There's an oak at the bottom of our garden, and there used to be an ash at the bottom of our neighbour's garden, until they cut it down about twenty years ago. My recollection is that the oak almost always came out well before the ash, but that we certainly didn't almost always have a dry summer. -- John Hall "Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always pays off now." Anon |
#9
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On May 1, 12:37*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote: F'cst hot dry summer? The Oak has been out for some time now, but still waiting for the Ash to bread bud. So expect only a splash. ... from "Red Sky at Night, Shepherd's Delight" [Paul Marriott], where he analyses many such 'country' sayings, there are several which link the leafing behaviour of the Oak and Ash. "When the oak comes out before the ash, there will be fine weather in harvest; but when the ash comes out before the oak, the harvest will be wet": this was tested over a period of 122 years for data in Norfolk. The results come out between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 correct depending on the sequence, i.e., no useful signal. Various couplets are given which mention the word 'choke' (meaning drought: country roads dry/dusty), e.g. ... " When the ash is out before the oak, then we may expect a choke; when the oak is out before the ash, then we may expect a splash "; note this is the *reverse* of the implied indication above - oak before ash implying rain, ash before oak implying dry: this too produced lacklustre returns, with a rating of 'Poor' (17-32% correct). One maxim which also contradicts the oft-quoted implication is:- " If the oak is out before the ash, twill be a summer of wet and splash; but if the ash is before the oak, twill be a summer of fire and smoke "; The first part (oak before ash = wet summer) had a success rate of 'Fair' (33-48%); the second part (ash before oak = dry) rated 'Poor' (as above). But we don't need even these analyses to emphasise how wary of such we should be. From the Woodland Trust site at:-http://www.woodland-trust.org.uk/ From 2007 data for Ash and Oak (pedunculate) we have:... Average leaf-budburst Ash = 21st April Average leaf-budburst Oak = 8th April That is, 'Oak before Ash' .... implies a 'splash'? May, June & July 2007 were three very wet months - the wettest such sequence in the England & Wales Precipitation series. So, was that a 'splash' or a 'soak' :-) I don't see any reason why well-rooted, healthy trees should be able to *forecast* a season ahead. They respond to last year's events, and immediate weather 'input', such as sunshine, air & soil temperature & soil moisture. Martin you are guilty of mixing your metaphor with your data. An heady drink if never there was. You are not interested in overall rainfall data if the thing you are watching out for is an agricultural conundrum. What you need to know is in the locale for which the specific is applied is: "What are the chances of a rainfall ruining a good harvest." In other words can you be certain of getting heavy rain in the five or so days in the middle of June when the hay has to be dry and can you get the wheat and barley in dry enough to make good beer and flour all through next year. If the hay gets wet it will overheat and be a fire hazard and if it is wet enough to go rotten, it will cause problems in dairy cows. Wet wheat won't thrash well and will not fetch a good price at auction. The few days these things depend on mean feast or tragedy to a farming community and no ammount of rainfall or drought mean a damn after the apposite occasions. The required saw will allow the farmer to know what to look out for and plan for worst case scenarios. Something you might think in this hi tech age we can take for granted but in the days when an whole village would be employed to get the harvests in for the surrounding farms, things were a lot different. If it looked a wet harvest season it would pay the local farmers to bus in townies or arrange some other emergency measure. No small cost to the landholder. Then there are problems to look out for in a wet year before the harvest. Long stalked crops would fall over a lot easier and be susceptible to other blights. Again something just an inkling of a possibility would give a good husbandman an edge maybe just enought to keep a day's march on the weather. The work involved isn't a pastorale by any means. Or wasn't. |
#10
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On May 1, 2:44*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message ... But it still does not tell me the data on which they based their predictions. Whilst it's not the whole story the output from the seasonal dynamical model can be viewed on the link to the right of this pagehttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/ind... (registration required) - then select Europe in the global seasonal category maps. Jon. Thanks Jon, It seems that it is mostly based on sea surface temperatures with El Nino/La Nina playing a large part. They are predicting an El Nino for this summer, but on their chart up to 1st April it still shows a La Nina. It will be intereating to see if they are right. Cheers, Alastair. |
Reply |
|
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
If the oak before the ash... | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Ash Before Oak | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
8 july 1970,oak-cleaving thunderstorm | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
oak before the ash.... | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Ash Before Oak | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |