Alastair wrote:

On May 1, 2:44 pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message


...

But it still does not tell me the data on which they based their
predictions.

Whilst it's not the whole story the output from the seasonal dynamical
model
can be viewed on the link to the right of this
pagehttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/ind...
(registration required) - then select Europe in the global seasonal
category
maps.

Jon.

Thanks Jon,

It seems that it is mostly based on sea surface temperatures with El
Nino/La Nina playing a large part. They are predicting an El Nino for
this summer, but on their chart up to 1st April it still shows a La
Nina. It will be intereating to see if they are right.


Latest SST-anomaly chart shows the Equator a little warmer in the Pacific.
Beginning to look a bit El Nino-ish?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On May 6, 8:13*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
Alastair wrote:
On May 1, 2:44 pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message

...

But it still does not tell me the data on which they based their
predictions.

Whilst it's not the whole story the output from the seasonal dynamical
model
can be viewed on the link to the right of this

pagehttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/monthsahead/seasonal/ind....

(registration required) - then select Europe in the global seasonal
category
maps.

Jon.

Thanks Jon,

It seems that it is mostly based on sea surface temperatures with El
Nino/La Nina playing a large part. *They are predicting an El Nino for
this summer, but on their chart up to 1st April it still shows a La
Nina. *It will be intereating to see if they are right.

Latest SST-anomaly chart shows the Equator a little warmer in the Pacific..
Beginning to look a bit El Nino-ish?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

This is the page I found and but it was last updated on 25/4/09. Then
the ENSO was in a La Nina state. You could argue that it has been
like that so long it must change now, but that smacks of the Law of
Averages.

Cheers, Alastair.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/enso/enso.current.html