"David Buttery" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:00:50 +0100, John. Athome wrote:

Issued at: Friday 26 June 2009 at 11:30

The probability of heatwave conditions in parts of England and Wales
between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Tuesday is 60%
snip
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...lth/index.html

I may very well be missing something here, but that surprises me a little
bit. For example, London's threshold day max is 32°C, which is not a very
easy value to reach. Clicking on London on the actual MetO map gives 28°C
for Monday and 27°C for Tuesday, and GFS seems broadly to agree.

I don't really see where the stated "60% risk" of 32°C in London comes
from, assuming the warning isn't simply about high night-time minima (in
which case one would assume this would be stated).

High 20s/low 30s (depending on area) seems about right to be
the hottest spell of the summer for most years, so in other words
it common.
They should significantly raise the bar for this, let's say 35C, OK
a bit lower for Scotland. 35C is pretty rare, in this case you'd only
get the waning triggered in exceptional circumstances, not just
any old hot spell.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Fri, 26 Jun 2009 at 13:00:50, John. Athome wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

Issued at: Friday 26 June 2009 at 11:30

The probability of heatwave conditions in parts of England and Wales
between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Tuesday is 60%

Increasingly hot and humid air is expected to spread northwards across
England and Wales over the weekend and into next week. Heat-wave
conditions are now likely to develop for some central, southern and
southeastern areas from Monday onwards. These conditions may spread to
other areas later in the week.

I bought a new fan today...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)