The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

On 6 July, 14:03, "peter clarke" wrote:
The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously *like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

I was unpopular yesterday when talking to someone around the outside
swimming pool at our local club ,when I hinted that we *may* have had
the best weeks weather of the summer. Apart from the odd day, I don't
see any prolonged settled weather now for July, but maybe August will
save the day ;-)

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On 2009-07-06, peter clarke wrote:
The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Is this the start of the "european monsoon"?

--
comp.john

On 6 July, 14:38, "comp.john" wrote:
On 2009-07-06, peter clarke wrote:

The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously *like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Is this the start of the "european monsoon"?

--
comp.john

I always thought that was mid-June ready for Wimbledon ;-)
But someone may correct me here.

Keith (Southend)

On Jul 6, 2:03*pm, "peter clarke" wrote:
The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously *like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

It seems to vary year on year.

Last year was pretty poor up to the 20th, then we did get a window of
10 days hot, sunny weather.
2007 as we all know was rubbish until the 28th, then thankfully the
rest of the summer was better, apart from one week in mid August.
2006 was notably good though there was a deterioration in August.
In 2005 the opposite happened, the beginning of July was rubbish, then
there were about 10 days hot weather in the middle of the month
(coinciding with the imminent bad spell), but then the last week was
notably bad.
2004 I was out of the country though I gather that the first half was
bad, the second half much better.
In 2003, July was much the worst month of a generally good summer,
though there was a similar hot spell to 2005.
2002 and 2001 were similarly mixed.

So the answer is perhaps "not necessarily", though it does seem now
that we're unlikely to get a notably style summer. There does seem to
be an unfortunate tendency in recent years for summer "changeable"
spells to be cyclonic rather than the "westerly with highish pressure
to the south" type, with consequent very wet spells. The main thing in
the next week or so would seem to be unpleasantly (for some, I'd rate
day maxima of 20C as unpleasant this time of year) cool conditions.

Nick

On Jul 6, 2:15*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 6 July, 14:03, "peter clarke" wrote:

The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously *like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

I was unpopular yesterday when talking to someone around the outside
swimming pool at our local club ,when I hinted that we *may* have had
the best weeks weather of the summer. Apart from the odd day, I don't
see any prolonged settled weather now for July, but maybe August will
save the day ;-)

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Very interesting! I'm not sure it is clear at all what effect the
weather in early July will have on the rest of the summer (or how the
weather at any other time will affect the summer weather for that
matter). I think the best we can say is that the next 10 days probably
look pretty poor, but even then, my own criterion of 5 consecutive
runs of the gfs and agreement from the ECM has not been achieved since
June 16th (and that led to an incorrect 10-day forecast from me too!).
That reflects the high 10-day model inconsistency over the last 3
weeks and makes me wonder how anyone could come to the conclusion that
you have about anything past the middle of July. I'm not saying you
won't be correct, Keith, I'm just questioning how you could possibly
know? I understand why you may have given this a stab, in that a
pattern is more likely to propogate, than to change, but to
extrapolate the present, changeable, model output past 7/8 days,
especially after a warm June and a hot start to July, would not have a
high chance of success, IMO.

On June 30th,the MetO reinforced their original view that the summer
will be warmer than average with average rainfall when the weather
models looked much warmer and drier than the do presently. They
probably give the best guess as to what may happen, but their longer
term sumer forecasting record isn't anything to write home about:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...09/summer.html

There are a plethora of (mainly) warmer and (some) colder than average
temp forecasts around the blogosphere but I wouldn't trust any of them
as far as I could throw them as almost none of them are backed by any
outcome accuracy stats over time. They are almost all guesses dressed
up with (often good) meteorology and a knowledge that ENSO exists.
ENSO can certainly influence the Indian monsoon and may have an
influence in the UK via teleconnections through the Med and on to us
(in email conversation, Adam Scaith certainly thought so and went
public about that in The Times during the poorer summer of 2007. He
indicated that recent, (and still unpublished, as far as I know),
research will probably indicate a La Nina/wetter and cooler N.
European summer link. I know at least one study that has found a weak
ENSO/N. Europe link - but not of any that link ENSO conditions
specifically to the UK (please put a link if you know of any - I'm
sure there will be soon!). Philip has done work in the area of
hindcast seasonal forecasting, which has been very interesting to read
and does give pointers for some seasons, but I'm not sure that covered
forecasting July and August from June's weather. I do feel more links
will come to light over the next few years and I look forward to the
research.

As for me, in this Global Warming trend, I'd expect any UK summer to
have a 75% chance of being warmer than the long-term average and
that's what I'd forecast for this one (and every other one since 1991
- I'm doing pretty well I think!) This one is presently more likely to
be warmer, than not, as 1/3 of the sumer has gone and has been warmer
than average. I have no idea whether the UK summer will be wetter than
average, past guessing and considering a UK/La Nina link.

As for the summer monsoon - that appears to have more provenance. I'd
like to see some research into how often and after what previous
conditions the summer monsoon occurs.manifests itself.

comp.john wrote:


Is this the start of the "european monsoon"?


Been and gone. Beginning of June is the usual start.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

In article
,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
On 6 July, 14:38, "comp.john" wrote:
On 2009-07-06, peter clarke wrote:

The ending of the settled spell and the hot weather in late-June and early
July, and the much more cyclonic charts now, look suspiciously *like the
onset of the ' late summer weather regime'. I think this phrase may have
originated with H.H. Lamb. Does the current weather set the scene for the
type of weather pattern for the next few weeks?

Is this the start of the "european monsoon"?

I always thought that was mid-June ready for Wimbledon ;-)
But someone may correct me here.

That's the "traditional" date, but I imagine that it can vary a lot from
year to year.
--
John Hall "Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always
pays off now." Anon

Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 6, 2:15 pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 6 July, 14:03, "peter clarke" wrote:

I was unpopular yesterday when talking to someone around the outside
swimming pool at our local club ,when I hinted that we *may* have had
the best weeks weather of the summer. Apart from the odd day, I don't
see any prolonged settled weather now for July, but maybe August will
save the day ;-)

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Very interesting! I'm not sure it is clear at all what effect the
weather in early July will have on the rest of the summer (or how the
weather at any other time will affect the summer weather for that
matter).

It's just a gut feeling I have, I hope I'm wrong, but it certainly feels
different out there now and the models have been consistent with the
unsettled look up to 10 days and beyond for a few days now. No
scientific evidence, just a hunch ~ "The Bells"

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Jul 6, 6:13*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 6, 2:15 pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 6 July, 14:03, "peter clarke" wrote:

I was unpopular yesterday when talking to someone around the outside
swimming pool at our local club ,when I hinted that we *may* have had
the best weeks weather of the summer. Apart from the odd day, I don't
see any prolonged settled weather now for July, but maybe August will
save the day ;-)

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Very interesting! I'm not sure it is clear at all what effect the
weather in early July will have on the rest of the summer (or how the
weather at any other time will affect the summer weather for that
matter).

It's just a gut feeling I have, I hope I'm wrong, but it certainly feels
different out there now and the models have been consistent with the
unsettled look up to 10 days and beyond for a few days now. No
scientific evidence, just a hunch ~ "The Bells"

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

The Jet Stream has reappeared and is settling over the UK.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_h120_00.gif
Since it comes to us from the US, it doesn't seem like a monsoon
caused by the Eurasian land mass sucking in wet air, but I could be
wrong.

Cheers, Alastair.