I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Hey Keith, what do you expect, this is Britain! Grit your teeth and just get
on with it like a true Brit, there will be a few sunny intervals that's for
sure - just make the most of them.

Drizzle and 99% humidity with drizzle here in Haytor (Devon) at the moment,
but at least it feels warm, a chance also to get on with some indoor tasks
:-)

Will
--

On Jul 11, 9:38*am, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Hunches are about as good as forecasts, Keith and I repect your hunch
about the summer. However the gfs shows probable grim prospects to the
21st of July, not for the summer! The ECM shows something a little
different at T240 and the gfs has played with ridging of the Azores
high, towards our shores, over the last 2 days. I'd agree about
probable grim prospects out to T240, but even at that short distance,
IMO the consistency in the models is not there for a forecast with a
good chance of success.

Will Hand wrote:

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Hey Keith, what do you expect, this is Britain! Grit your teeth and just
get on with it like a true Brit, there will be a few sunny intervals
that's for sure - just make the most of them.

Drizzle and 99% humidity with drizzle here in Haytor (Devon) at the
moment, but at least it feels warm, a chance also to get on with some
indoor tasks :-)

Will

I'm learning Visual Basics atm so that's an indoor job. I intend to
write a programme to improve our summers ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jul 11, 9:38 am, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Hunches are about as good as forecasts, Keith and I repect your hunch
about the summer. However the gfs shows probable grim prospects to the
21st of July, not for the summer! The ECM shows something a little
different at T240 and the gfs has played with ridging of the Azores
high, towards our shores, over the last 2 days. I'd agree about
probable grim prospects out to T240, but even at that short distance,
IMO the consistency in the models is not there for a forecast with a
good chance of success.

I can only refer to my suspicions about late-summer prospects on 6 July.
Nothing that has happened since then
has allayed my misgivings. I know memories can be selective, but I can
recall the Wimbledon Fortnight of 1957, much of it played in
blistering heat. I noted 35c on the middle Saturday, 29 June, but as soon
as finals were over ( Hoad beat Rosewell in the Men's!) the summer
disintigrated. There were few fine days thereafter. Of course, in 1976,
after another hot 'Wimbledon', the heatwave continued without interruption.
It is always interesting to speculate.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

peter clarke wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jul 11, 9:38 am, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Hunches are about as good as forecasts, Keith and I repect your hunch
about the summer. However the gfs shows probable grim prospects to the
21st of July, not for the summer! The ECM shows something a little
different at T240 and the gfs has played with ridging of the Azores
high, towards our shores, over the last 2 days. I'd agree about
probable grim prospects out to T240, but even at that short distance,
IMO the consistency in the models is not there for a forecast with a
good chance of success.

I can only refer to my suspicions about late-summer prospects on 6 July.
Nothing that has happened since then
has allayed my misgivings. I know memories can be selective, but I can
recall the Wimbledon Fortnight of 1957, much of it played in
blistering heat. I noted 35c on the middle Saturday, 29 June, but as
soon as finals were over ( Hoad beat Rosewell in the Men's!) the summer
disintigrated. There were few fine days thereafter. Of course, in 1976,
after another hot 'Wimbledon', the heatwave continued without interruption.
It is always interesting to speculate.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom



Just had to turn the lights on!!!

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:59:08 +0100, "Will Hand"
wrote:


Hey Keith, what do you expect, this is Britain! Grit your teeth and just get
on with it like a true Brit, there will be a few sunny intervals that's for
sure - just make the most of them.

Locals are starting to moan about it so given that July appears not to
have a decent spell , perhaps August will have something better.

When was the last time we had three disappointing summers on the trot
or, to be more specific, when both July and August were poor?

R

On Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:38:15 +0100, Keith(Southend) wrote in


I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.

I'm tending to agree with you Keith. I've posted before that persistence
is particularly strong at this time of year and my experience is that the
first two weeks of July, more often than not, set the scene for the rest of
July/August.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 11/07/2009 14:11:55 GMT

On Jul 11, 2:11*pm, Mike Tullett wrote:
On Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:38:15 +0100, Keith(Southend) wrote in


I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.

I'm tending to agree with you Keith. *I've posted before that persistence
is particularly strong at this time of year and my experience is that the
first two weeks of July, more often than not, set the scene for the rest of
July/August.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W *posted 11/07/2009 14:11:55 *GMT

Here's the Jet Stream for +120, but that seems to show more on it way
from the US.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_h120_00.gif

What do we need for the polar vortex to contract, so that the Jet
Stream moves north and gives us Mediterranean weather?

Cheers, Alastair.

On 11 July, 16:26, Alastair wrote:
On Jul 11, 2:11*pm, Mike Tullett wrote:

On Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:38:15 +0100, Keith(Southend) wrote in


I'm finding myself looking at GFS +240, but still there's no hope or
salvation in the offering.

I'm tending to agree with you Keith. *I've posted before that persistence
is particularly strong at this time of year and my experience is that the
first two weeks of July, more often than not, set the scene for the rest of
July/August.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W *posted 11/07/2009 14:11:55 *GMT

Here's the Jet Stream for +120, but that seems to show more on it way
from the US.http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_h120_00.gif

What do we need for the polar vortex to contract, so that the Jet
Stream moves north and gives us Mediterranean weather?

Cheers, Alastair.

Reading this thread you wouldn't think that June for most was warm,
dry (with a few notable exceptions) & sunny. Here it was exceptionally
dry as well as warm.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/#
Just 25% of the normal rainfall over much of Cornwall. This follows
May which had around 65% of the n normal rainfall.

Up until yesterday July has been good as well, just a bit windy at
times, giving some absolutely brilliant windsurfing conditions at
Marazion. Temperatures near to above normal every day, with very
little rain in daylight hours. The only day predominantly cloudy being
2nd.

Yesterday it was all change. The coolest & wettest day of the month,
reaching 19.2C with 10.8mm of rain, mainly in the afternoon, which
wasn't exactly the 'few spots' forecast. But in this part of the UK,
we did need some steady rain.

One thing that has been lacking has been good surf. Recently it's
either been flat (like yesterday) or ruined by an onshore wind. (The
BBC forecast always seems to say 2-3' on the north coast, irrespective
of what it's actually like) However, today signs of better things on
the surf front www.sennen-cove.com/todaysurf.htm.

As for the future, it looks like the south will get some warm ridges
pushing up from Azores high from time to time. I'm off to Scilly as
soon as the school hols start, to escape the busiest 2 weeks of the
summer, which is at least the nearest bit of the UK to the Azores!

Graham
Penzance