"Dawlish" wrote in message
news:0edae7e8-ab75-4ce8-b654-
Apart from a reference to "locally warm in sunnier spells", there's
nothing about the possibility of heat next week. The way this possible
plume has been modelled by the gfs today is not as a toppler. Today's
models stall the low and push it more to the NW. This may allow more
of the heat to spread in from the continent and the 12z models the
heat staying and pressure rising to our SE. It's a very interesting
situation for heat. There's been nothing like that modelled for 3
years and the 20C 850hpa isotherm keeps playing with the SE at 10
days.

If these models verify, what on earth is the MetO going to say? With
luck - and it may now take that - the next 48 hours will see a more
progressive bent to the models and the UK will be saved from a
"barbecue August"!

It really is a very interesting situation.

It must be a very fluid and evolving situation, Paul.

The ECM is significantly different from the previous run with a very
'toasty' looking pictu
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Interesting is the word and I await the next ECM run with a lot of it!

Joe




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On Jul 31, 7:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 31, 7:09*pm, sutartsorric wrote:



On 31 July, 15:45, Tudor Hughes wrote:

On Jul 31, 7:53*am, Robin Nicholson

wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.

This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.

R

* * * * You can get the 564 line in October, quite often with stratus,
wind, drizzle and 16°C. *Maybe that's what you meant - to get the
warmth the sun has to come out.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I think that the chances of high temperatures in London and SE England
later next week are very good. The 564 line may give stratus and
drizzle in Oct, but this will be Aug and that equates to temperatures
reaching 26-28 C (at least) , because the sun tends to 'come out' at
this time of year in those conditions, as the stratus gets burned off
pretty quickly.

As London and SE England is all that the 'national' media care about,
I suspect that the Met Office is in for some pretty serious criticism
later next week.

For those of a nervous disposition, please dont read Simon Jenkins'
comment in today's Guardian. It will only serve to give an idea of
what might be about to occur.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm more than a little perplexed at the 6-15 day forecast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Aug 2009 to Friday 14 Aug 2009:
Northern and western areas seeing rain at first, which may be heavy
but turning showery by Thursday. A risk of thundery rain in the south-
east too, but more central parts may start dry and fairly bright.
Rather unsettled through the weekend with the most frequent rain or
showers in the north and west with an indication of some drier and
brighter conditions across the south of the UK for a time.
Temperatures near normal generally but locally warm in sunnier spells
in central and southern areas. Through the following week the north
looks set to remain unsettled with rain and strong winds at times,
whilst the south will see occasional rain but some drier spells with
sunshine at times too.

Updated: 1224 on Fri 31 Jul 2009

Apart from a reference to "locally warm in sunnier spells", there's
nothing about the possibility of heat next week. The way this possible
plume has been modelled by the gfs today is not as a toppler. Today's
models stall the low and push it more to the NW. This may allow more
of the heat to spread in from the continent and the 12z models the
heat staying and pressure rising to our SE. It's a very interesting
situation for heat. There's been nothing like that modelled for 3
years and the 20C 850hpa isotherm keeps playing with the SE at 10
days.

If these models verify, what on earth is the MetO going to say? With
luck - and it may now take that - the next 48 hours will see a more
progressive bent to the models and the UK will be saved from a
"barbecue August"!

It really is a very interesting situation.

Your model interpretation is far more complex than mine, but I monitor
the output for each run, and when there is a consistency between each
run, I have more confidence in the general trend of the weather.

There are many people who will argue that minor perturbations in the
computer forecasts mean that everything should be discarded, but if
one takes an overall synoptic view and allows a +/- of (say) 4mb in
each 6 hour frame, then we get a very relaxed version of the forecast.

All that I am saying, is that if each run comes within that scenario,
the chances are very high.

If each run oscillates between warm high, and unsettled low - then
take no notice.


For the middle of next week, the last 10 runs have indicated a slow
build of pressure and southwesterly flow, which seems to suggest that
the Met Office are going to be shafted from all parts of the media.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.

Hi Paul, just written my Dartmoor weekly update and it wasn't easy!
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Amplification of the flow in the far western Atlantic looks like "buckling
then snapping" the jet turning it south-north with UK on the warm side.
However, we may be close enough for pulses of positive shear vorticity to
move north from Biscay threatening severe thunderstorms. Certainly becoming
much warmer as continental air gets pulled across the UK. 12Z GFS ensembles
are pretty confident about this change.

Well spotted BTW Paul!

Cheers,

Will
--

On Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:43:53 +0100, "Will Hand"
wrote:


Amplification of the flow in the far western Atlantic looks like "buckling
then snapping" the jet turning it south-north with UK on the warm side.
However, we may be close enough for pulses of positive shear vorticity to
move north from Biscay threatening severe thunderstorms. Certainly becoming
much warmer as continental air gets pulled across the UK. 12Z GFS ensembles
are pretty confident about this change.

I have seen on the FNMOC site, that I look at daily, for Friday 1200
what appears to be a thundery development

R

Hilton

On Jul 31, 8:15*pm, sutartsorric wrote:
On Jul 31, 7:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:



On Jul 31, 7:09*pm, sutartsorric wrote:

On 31 July, 15:45, Tudor Hughes wrote:

On Jul 31, 7:53*am, Robin Nicholson

wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.

This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.

R

* * * * You can get the 564 line in October, quite often with stratus,
wind, drizzle and 16°C. *Maybe that's what you meant - to get the
warmth the sun has to come out.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I think that the chances of high temperatures in London and SE England
later next week are very good. The 564 line may give stratus and
drizzle in Oct, but this will be Aug and that equates to temperatures
reaching 26-28 C (at least) , because the sun tends to 'come out' at
this time of year in those conditions, as the stratus gets burned off
pretty quickly.

As London and SE England is all that the 'national' media care about,
I suspect that the Met Office is in for some pretty serious criticism
later next week.

For those of a nervous disposition, please dont read Simon Jenkins'
comment in today's Guardian. It will only serve to give an idea of
what might be about to occur.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm more than a little perplexed at the 6-15 day forecast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Aug 2009 to Friday 14 Aug 2009:
Northern and western areas seeing rain at first, which may be heavy
but turning showery by Thursday. A risk of thundery rain in the south-
east too, but more central parts may start dry and fairly bright.
Rather unsettled through the weekend with the most frequent rain or
showers in the north and west with an indication of some drier and
brighter conditions across the south of the UK for a time.
Temperatures near normal generally but locally warm in sunnier spells
in central and southern areas. Through the following week the north
looks set to remain unsettled with rain and strong winds at times,
whilst the south will see occasional rain but some drier spells with
sunshine at times too.

Updated: 1224 on Fri 31 Jul 2009

Apart from a reference to "locally warm in sunnier spells", there's
nothing about the possibility of heat next week. The way this possible
plume has been modelled by the gfs today is not as a toppler. Today's
models stall the low and push it more to the NW. This may allow more
of the heat to spread in from the continent and the 12z models the
heat staying and pressure rising to our SE. It's a very interesting
situation for heat. There's been nothing like that modelled for 3
years and the 20C 850hpa isotherm keeps playing with the SE at 10
days.

If these models verify, what on earth is the MetO going to say? With
luck - and it may now take that - the next 48 hours will see a more
progressive bent to the models and the UK will be saved from a
"barbecue August"!

It really is a very interesting situation.

Your model interpretation is far more complex than mine, but I monitor
the output for each run, and when there is a consistency between each
run, I have more confidence in the general trend of the weather.

There are many people who will argue that minor perturbations in the
computer forecasts mean that everything should be discarded, but if
one takes an overall synoptic view and allows a +/- of (say) 4mb in
each 6 hour frame, then we get a very relaxed version of the forecast.

All that I am saying, is that if each run comes within that scenario,
the chances are very high.

If each run oscillates between warm high, and unsettled low - then
take no notice.

For the middle of next week, the last 10 runs have indicated a slow
build of pressure and southwesterly flow, which seems to suggest that
the Met Office are going to be shafted from all parts of the media.

Have the Met Office actually said this month is going to be rubbish
though? It's the media who is claiming that. I thought the forecast
was "average or above average" (i.e. high chance of it being average)
rainfall, and above average temperatures. So this month could end up
quite good, particularly if the above average temperatures are by day,
not night, without countering the Met Office forecast.

Nick

On Aug 1, 8:24*am, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:43:53 +0100, "Will Hand"

wrote:
Amplification of the flow in the far western Atlantic looks like "buckling
then snapping" the jet turning it south-north with UK on the warm side.
However, we may be close enough for pulses of positive shear vorticity to
move north from Biscay threatening severe thunderstorms. Certainly becoming
much warmer as continental air gets pulled across the UK. 12Z GFS ensembles
are pretty confident about this change.

I have seen on the FNMOC site, that I look at daily, for Friday 1200
what appears to be a thundery development

R

Hilton

Odds on warm warm toward the end of this week now. However, 100F is
unlikely, but I've still got the rest of August (crossed fingers!) *))

On Jul 30, 8:11*am, Dawlish wrote:
I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.

The plume toppled to some extent and the warmest weather has ended up
to our East and is heading for Scandinavia, but enough warm air has
found it's way into the far SE corner to push temps over 28C for a
couple of days. Warmer air is just over the channel in the Pas de
Calais with 90F. It was odd that the MetO didn't highlight the
possibility, then the probability, of this warmth until several days
later. The possibility was there a week ago and there ought to have
been enough confidence in this to make it probable, 24 hours after
that.

so your were wrong again.
nothing new there then

Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 30, 8:11 am, Dawlish wrote:
I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.

The plume toppled to some extent and the warmest weather has ended up
to our East and is heading for Scandinavia, but enough warm air has
found it's way into the far SE corner to push temps over 28C for a
couple of days. Warmer air is just over the channel in the Pas de
Calais with 90F. It was odd that the MetO didn't highlight the
possibility, then the probability, of this warmth until several days
later. The possibility was there a week ago and there ought to have
been enough confidence in this to make it probable, 24 hours after
that.

On Aug 6, 4:12*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 30, 8:11*am, Dawlish wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.

The plume toppled to some extent and the warmest weather has ended up
to our East and is heading for Scandinavia, but enough warm air has
found it's way into the far SE corner to push temps over 28C for a
couple of days. Warmer air is just over the channel in the Pas de
Calais with 90F.

Seems to have been a feature of the last few weeks that there's an
unusually sharp west-east temperature increase, with locations less
than 100 miles apart on a west/east axis getting markedly different
weather.

It's also been remarkable how rubbish (yes subjective term I know) the
weather's been in central southern England since the 27th of July,
given how high (near 1020) the pressure's often been. Another drab
dreary second-half-of-the-first-decade-of-the-21st-century summer day
again today.... and I was expecting it to get better! :-( Was
expecting more "warm with scattered thunderstorms" type weather today.
Oh well, hopefully it *will* improve next week....

Nick