Thought I'd point out how similar the T+240 charts are for the GFS and
the ECMWF at 06Z / 00Z respectively, regarding Hurricane Bill.

Both have Bill flirting dangerously with the eastern seaboard of
Canada before weakening and then explosively developing in the
westerlies in the mid-atlantic as it recurves out to sea. ECMWF 945mb,
GFS 960mb.

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
Thought I'd point out how similar the T+240 charts are for the GFS and
the ECMWF at 06Z / 00Z respectively, regarding Hurricane Bill.

Both have Bill flirting dangerously with the eastern seaboard of
Canada before weakening and then explosively developing in the
westerlies in the mid-atlantic as it recurves out to sea. ECMWF 945mb,
GFS 960mb.

Richard

Yes, Richard, it's one to watch.

I see on the Accuweather site that there is a run of systems now coming off
Africa and giving rise to more Tropical development. It could be quite an
action-filled couple of weeks coming up over the pond...and then possibly
closer to home.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-...09-08-16_09:58

Joe



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part000.txt - is OK

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On 16 Aug, 14:22, "JCW" wrote:

I see on the Accuweather site that there is a run of systems now coming off
Africa and giving rise to more Tropical development. It could be quite an
action-filled couple of weeks coming up over the pond...and then possibly
closer to home.

Potentially a moment of deja vu to come...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif

Richard

Potentially a moment of deja vu to come...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif

or Faith in 1966
clean 5 ft waves at Porthminster, St Ives
Porthmeor closed out at 12-15ft!!!!

JT ex surf bum

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 16 Aug, 14:22, "JCW" wrote:

Potentially a moment of deja vu to come...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif

Richard

Now that I remember!!!

Some bad flooding in Dublin and surround. The heaviest rain fell on the
mountains south of Dublin where 280mm was recorded at Kippure (750m). 200mm
recorded at lowland station in Kilcoole, south of Greystones, Co. Wicklow.

It went down as being the worst flooding in Dublin since 1880. I live near
Bray in Co. Wicklow and there was a lot of damage resulting from the floods
with over 1000 people evacuated from their homes.

I've retrieved much of this information from a Met Eireann weather bulletin
from the month of August 1986. One remark they made was that the storm was
of a severity that would be expected once every 100 years!!!

Joe



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"Richard Dixon" wrote:

Thought I'd point out how similar the T+240 charts are for the GFS and
the ECMWF at 06Z / 00Z respectively, regarding Hurricane Bill.

Both have Bill flirting dangerously with the eastern seaboard of
Canada before weakening and then explosively developing in the
westerlies in the mid-atlantic as it recurves out to sea. ECMWF 945mb,
GFS 960mb.

Naughty Richard!

The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you
well know...), and the outcome can vary from deep
depressions heading north across Quebec and Baffin Island
triggering long-lasting blocking in the northern Atlantic,
to curious creatures sliding sluggishly into Portugal or
Biscay. Even these days, models fail to handle them with
any sort of consistency even at 72h range (c.f. Gordon,
September 2006).

Philip

On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:

Naughty Richard!

*The treatment of recurving TCs is *notoriously difficult (as you
well know...),

LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model
consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I
realise it's an enormous minefield.

But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked
beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !!

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:

Naughty Richard!

The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you
well know...),

LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model
consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I
realise it's an enormous minefield.

But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked
beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !!

Richard

===

Of course he has Richard, any great meteorologist does!

I'm literally drooling at the prospect of an "interesting Atlantic spell",
Philip is correct though as one outcome (low probability) may be to develop
a socking big high over UK due to low PV air being thrust north to west of
UK and we all have a "barbecue" technical term spell of weather!

Now where was that phone number of my local roofer and where the 'eck did I
put my house insurance document :-)

"In my youth", sheesh you're still under 40 man, that's y o u n g!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

On Aug 16, 5:17*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...
On 16 Aug, 16:53, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:

Naughty Richard!

The treatment of recurving TCs is notoriously difficult (as you
well know...),

LOL - I should know better, I'm a sucker for a bit of model
consitency, and yes having even presented on the topic in my youth I
realise it's an enormous minefield.

But don't you look me in the eye and tell me you've never looked
beyond 7 days and dreamed - come on, admit it, man !!

Richard

===

Of course he has Richard, any great meteorologist does!

I'm literally drooling at the prospect of an "interesting Atlantic spell",
Philip is correct though as one outcome (low probability) may be to develop
a socking big high over UK due to low PV air being thrust north to west of
UK and we all have a "barbecue" technical term spell of weather!

Now where was that phone number of my local roofer and where the 'eck did I
put my house insurance document :-)

"In my youth", sheesh you're still under 40 man, that's y o u n g!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

By the time it arives in September it will be a Balti Summmer :-)

Cheers, Alastair.

On 16 Aug, 14:39, "JT" wrote:
Potentially a moment of deja vu to come...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...RLEY/track.gif

or Faith in 1966
clean 5 ft waves at Porthminster, St Ives
Porthmeor closed out at 12-15ft!!!!

JT ex surf bum

Yes, could be some huge surf, possibly clean on the north coast too as
long as the low stays well to the west.

Not exactly ideal surfing, but have you seen these pics?
www.sennen-cove.com/10march08.htm

Biggest sea I've seen at Sennen, and I lived there several years.

Graham
Penzance