On Fri, 4 Sep 2009 at 10:18:28, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

At least it shouldn't be the stifling heat of mid-summer, and the
rapidly lengthening nights may get on the cool side.

True Paul. I've deliberately referred to daytime temperatures all
along. The nights are likely to be fairly cool if the skies stay
clear. Mind you, I'm not sure you can describe the average British
summer as containing "stifling heat" very often! Maybe on occasions in
an average summer and in exceptional years! *))

Depends on your tolerance for muggy nights - anything above the low 20's
at night in my bedroom, and I find sleep very difficult.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On Sep 5, 10:31*am, Paul Hyett wrote:
On Fri, 4 Sep 2009 at 10:18:28, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :



At least it shouldn't be the stifling heat of mid-summer, and the
rapidly lengthening nights may get on the cool side.

True Paul. I've deliberately referred to daytime temperatures all
along. The nights are likely to be fairly cool if the skies stay
clear. Mind you, I'm not sure you can describe the average British
summer as containing "stifling heat" very often! Maybe on occasions in
an average summer and in exceptional years! *))

Depends on your tolerance for muggy nights - anything above the low 20's
at night in my bedroom, and I find sleep very difficult.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

The change to settled weather next week is likely to be pretty
stunning. After the strength of the winds on Tuesday, especially in NW
Scotland, where the gales could be severe, but also further south too,
the change in the weather and the charts that is forecast for 48 hours
later is nothing short of incredible.

SNIP

The change to settled weather next week is likely to be pretty
stunning. After the strength of the winds on Tuesday, especially in NW
Scotland, where the gales could be severe, but also further south too,
the change in the weather and the charts that is forecast for 48 hours
later is nothing short of incredible

It's this rapid change, if it comes off, which could give some superb
surfing conditions in Cornwall on Wednesday. Magic Seaweed now shows
the potential for a 10' & clean swell Wednesday afternoon.

I'm sure there are many keeping an eye on this, and planning a morning
belting down the M5.

Graham
Penzance

On Sep 5, 8:31*pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:
SNIP



The change to settled weather next week is likely to be pretty
stunning. After the strength of the winds on Tuesday, especially in NW
Scotland, where the gales could be severe, but also further south too,
the change in the weather and the charts that is forecast for 48 hours
later is nothing short of incredible

It's this rapid change, if it comes off, which could give some superb
surfing conditions in Cornwall on Wednesday. Magic Seaweed now shows
the potential for a 10' & clean swell Wednesday afternoon.

I'm sure there are many keeping an eye on this, and planning a morning
belting down the M5.

Graham
Penzance

Hadn't thought of that, but sunshine and surf would be a terrific
combination!

"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
...
SNIP

The change to settled weather next week is likely to be pretty
stunning. After the strength of the winds on Tuesday, especially in NW
Scotland, where the gales could be severe, but also further south too,
the change in the weather and the charts that is forecast for 48 hours
later is nothing short of incredible

It's this rapid change, if it comes off, which could give some superb
surfing conditions in Cornwall on Wednesday. Magic Seaweed now shows
the potential for a 10' & clean swell Wednesday afternoon.

I'm sure there are many keeping an eye on this, and planning a morning
belting down the M5.


England play Croatia on Weds. Pubs could be busy after the surfin safari :-)

Will
--

On Sep 5, 8:51*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Graham Easterling" wrote in message

...

SNIP

The change to settled weather next week is likely to be pretty
stunning. After the strength of the winds on Tuesday, especially in NW
Scotland, where the gales could be severe, but also further south too,
the change in the weather and the charts that is forecast for 48 hours
later is nothing short of incredible

It's this rapid change, if it comes off, which could give some superb
surfing conditions in Cornwall on Wednesday. Magic Seaweed now shows
the potential for a 10' & clean swell Wednesday afternoon.

I'm sure there are many keeping an eye on this, and planning a morning
belting down the M5.

England play Croatia on Weds. Pubs could be busy after the surfin safari :-)

Will
--

Looks as if it will be settled and dry at Wemberley on Wednesday. It
will establish itself quickly and will be domination our weather by
Thursday 10th and my forecast for then looks good. I'm looking for the
change now (not that I want a change!). There's not enough consistency
on the gfs to forecast that the UK, or even England will be under an
anticyclone in 10 days time, but the ECM says otherwise and the high
could hang around longer.

On Aug 31, 9:19*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:

There's enough consistency in the gfs and enough agreement with the
ECM, for me to forecast, with 75% confidence, dry and settled
conditions over the south of the UK in 10 days time, at T240. Temps
will be above the September daytime average. The NW won't be faring
as
well and will be plagued by fronts, giving much more unsettled
conditions.

You've just got to ask yourself; "Why couldn't this have happened in
July/August"! However I'll take this in September too. Just my kind of
weather. Dry settled and warm in the daytime sunshine.

The gfs spotted this pattern change first and the ECM followed soon
after. The consistency the gfs showed about the change and the
agreement from the ECM prompted the forecast and it was a good one.
There are some fronts around the NW limb of the high and there is some
light rain over the far NW of Scotland, but the rest of the country
should enjoy a fine and a dry day, after some early mist and fog in a
few areas. There's NE flow across the South producing breezy weather
and Will did correctly mention that would happen, but the overall
picture is dry and settled. Overall, that's 72 forecasts at 10 days
and 54 correct; an outcome percentage success rate of 76%.

The fine weather should last for a while too, as I've implied with my
similar forecast for 3 days time, but a change may be a-coming for 10
days time - the ECM is leading that possibility but the gfs has not
shown enough consistency yet; some runs having dallied with a
continuance of the anticyclonic weather whilst others have shown a
return to Atlantic weather over the last 48 hours. Another couple of
gfs runs showing windy and wet weather at T240 and I'd be convinced
this blocking pattern won't last to the end of the third week of
September.

Time to enjoy some quintessential Autumnal weather. 8))

On Sep 10, 7:50*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 31, 9:19*am, Dawlish wrote: On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:

Overall, that's 72 forecasts at 10 days and 54 correct; an outcome percentage success rate of 76%.

Sorry guys and gals, that's a mistake. I'd not added on this one!
55/72 and 76%.

On 10 Sep, 08:17, Dawlish wrote:
On Sep 10, 7:50*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Aug 31, 9:19*am, Dawlish wrote: On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:
Overall, that's 72 forecasts at 10 days and 54 correct; an outcome percentage success rate of 76%.

Sorry guys and gals, that's a mistake. I'd not added on this one!
55/72 and 76%.

Interesting - is this 55 times out of 72 consecutive days' forecasts?

Richard

On Sep 10, 9:38*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
On 10 Sep, 08:17, Dawlish wrote:

On Sep 10, 7:50*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Aug 31, 9:19*am, Dawlish wrote: On Aug 30, 9:58*am, Nick wrote:
Overall, that's 72 forecasts at 10 days and 54 correct; an outcome percentage success rate of 76%.

Sorry guys and gals, that's a mistake. I'd not added on this one!
55/72 and 76%.

Interesting - is this 55 times out of 72 consecutive days' forecasts?

Richard

No Richard. The technique does not allow that and never has. If it
did, it would point to significant and consistent model accuracy at 10
days and we'd have consistently accurate forecasts from the MetO at 10
days and we don't.