Are we seeing the beginnings of model consistency and agreement for an
Indian summer? (whatever that actually means!)

Both the ECM and the gfs are looking to build high pressure after this
shock of cool, windy and eventually (for us in the south) wet weather.
As Will says, the drought ought to be broken for many next week and
gales will come as an unwelcome shock in the north tomorrow. I say
unwelcome shock, as trees are still in full leaf and a few might end
up in gardens and across roads in the north with those steep pressure
gradients.

Beyond that - back to calm and settled with the chance of some warm
weather out towards mid October with 20C+ in the south? Watch this
space.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Are we seeing the beginnings of model consistency and agreement for an
Indian summer? (whatever that actually means!)

Both the ECM and the gfs are looking to build high pressure after this
shock of cool, windy and eventually (for us in the south) wet weather.
As Will says, the drought ought to be broken for many next week and
gales will come as an unwelcome shock in the north tomorrow. I say
unwelcome shock, as trees are still in full leaf and a few might end
up in gardens and across roads in the north with those steep pressure
gradients.

Beyond that - back to calm and settled with the chance of some warm
weather out towards mid October with 20C+ in the south? Watch this
space.

Is that a forecast made by your own fair hand?


Oh where would you be without weather central.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Are we seeing the beginnings of model consistency and agreement for an
Indian summer? (whatever that actually means!)

Both the ECM and the gfs are looking to build high pressure after this
shock of cool, windy and eventually (for us in the south) wet weather.
As Will says, the drought ought to be broken for many next week and
gales will come as an unwelcome shock in the north tomorrow. I say
unwelcome shock, as trees are still in full leaf and a few might end
up in gardens and across roads in the north with those steep pressure
gradients.

Beyond that - back to calm and settled with the chance of some warm
weather out towards mid October with 20C+ in the south? Watch this
space.

LOL you live in cuckoo land. Why should we bench forecasters (and any
others) watch your posts? We have all the access to the models we need and
we make forecasts 4 times a day, rather then the once in a blue moon pseudo
"forecast" you come up with.

--
Ned

"Ned" wrote in message
...
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Are we seeing the beginnings of model consistency and agreement for an
Indian summer? (whatever that actually means!)

Both the ECM and the gfs are looking to build high pressure after this
shock of cool, windy and eventually (for us in the south) wet weather.
As Will says, the drought ought to be broken for many next week and
gales will come as an unwelcome shock in the north tomorrow. I say
unwelcome shock, as trees are still in full leaf and a few might end
up in gardens and across roads in the north with those steep pressure
gradients.

Beyond that - back to calm and settled with the chance of some warm
weather out towards mid October with 20C+ in the south? Watch this
space.

LOL you live in cuckoo land. Why should we bench forecasters (and any
others) watch your posts? We have all the access to the models we need
and we make forecasts 4 times a day, rather then the once in a blue moon
pseudo "forecast" you come up with.

--
Ned

Ned don't mock, this man is a thousand fold times better than Joe B

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

Ned don't mock, this man is a thousand fold times better than Joe B

Damning with faint praise?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

Groan. No not again, I couldn't stand yet another boring high pressure.
:-(

Will
--

"Ned" wrote in message
...
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Are we seeing the beginnings of model consistency and agreement for an
Indian summer? (whatever that actually means!)

Both the ECM and the gfs are looking to build high pressure after this
shock of cool, windy and eventually (for us in the south) wet weather.
As Will says, the drought ought to be broken for many next week and
gales will come as an unwelcome shock in the north tomorrow. I say
unwelcome shock, as trees are still in full leaf and a few might end
up in gardens and across roads in the north with those steep pressure
gradients.

Beyond that - back to calm and settled with the chance of some warm
weather out towards mid October with 20C+ in the south? Watch this
space.


00Z ensembles 3/10 still back this up. Showing a Bartlett high taking up
residence over the Alps. Ah well, if we are to have this setup, better now
than in winter when it can cause throat slitting on TWO and utter misery at
Haytor Central :-)

Still looking very 'interesting' in southern Britain on Wednesday.

Will
--

On Oct 2, 11:45*pm, "Ned" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Are we seeing the beginnings of model consistency and agreement for an
Indian summer? (whatever that actually means!)

Both the ECM and the gfs are looking to build high pressure after this
shock of cool, windy and eventually (for us in the south) wet weather.
As Will says, the drought ought to be broken for many next week and
gales will come as an unwelcome shock in the north tomorrow. I say
unwelcome shock, as trees are still in full leaf and a few might end
up in gardens and across roads in the north with those steep pressure
gradients.

Beyond that - back to calm and settled with the chance of some warm
weather out towards mid October with 20C+ in the south? Watch this
space.

LOL you live in cuckoo land. Why should we bench forecasters (and any
others) watch your posts? *We have all the access to the models we need and
we make forecasts 4 times a day, rather then the once in a blue moon pseudo
"forecast" you come up with.

--
Ned

Careful Ned. If your forecasting is so good, the obvious question is;
why aren't the outcomes at 10 days+ good too - that goes for for any
agency, or forecaster on the net?

I know how good MetO forecasters are and I know how good their
outcomes are out to 5 days. They have improved considerably over the
past 20 years and arer reliable enough to use. They are the best you
can get for the UK. However their (your?) outcomes at 10 days+ clearly
have not and the MetO, or anyone else for that matter, finds
forecasting at that distance impossible on a day-to-day basis. Just
because the forecasts are issued does not make them good. The only way
to judge that is by outcome percentage success and if that sticks in
the craw of some I make no apologies when a bench forecaster comes on
and tells me how good he is because he forecasts 4 times a day. I
would not even begin to compete at 0-5 days. Your meteorology training
and forecasting experience would completely outweigh mine and I have
great respect for bench forecasters' abilities at that distance. At 10
days, it is a different matter. Using the models at my disposal, I
could easily forecast at 10 days, every day, but I would be wrong much
of the time, as you would be and I would have a good chance of being
right only on those occasions I refer to. In fact I'd use percentages
to display how confident I was, as should the MetO.

That's why the MetO only allow about 200 words for the whole forecast
period of 6-15 days (200 words only for a full 10-day period! What use
is that - and no specifics to any day within those 10?) You certainly
don't forecast publically at that distance every 6 hours. The 6-15 day
forecast is updated once every 24 hours if we are lucky; probably in a
tea break *)) The system that I use allows me to be able to forecast
with 75% confidence at particular times (and I accept that those
conditions do not occur often - read my profile). The MetO don't
publish any accuracy records at T240 because they know full well that
accurate (not just regular) forecasting at that distance is beyond
their capabilities, or anyone's capability at present. The models that
you need to do that with accuracy have not yet been invented, so
please don't tell me that you have everything you need to forecast at
10 days+. You haven't, or you'd be able to do it with accuracy. Again,
just note that I am *not* talking about forecastig at short-range.

Last night, the above wasn't a forecast, of course, it was an
observation on how the models are shaping up. This *is* a forecast.
Come back in 10 days and you can take it to pieces if it is wrong -
but it would good if you'd also comment on any of the 77% of these
forecasts that have been right.

**At T240 on Tuesday 13th October, pressure over the bulk of the UK
will be higher than average. These anticyclonic conditions, combined
with lower pressure to the west of Europe will advect some warm air
and daytime temperatures will be significantly above average for many
parts of the UK.**

The MetO 6-15 day forecast says this:

"UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Oct 2009 to Friday 16 Oct 2009:
The period will start on quite an unsettled note with rain or showers
in many parts and perhaps some strong winds in the south at first. On
the first Friday and over the weekend southern parts are expected to
have a drier and more settled interlude with some sunshine but with
temperatures near or rather below the average for the time of year and
with some overnight frosts. Unsettled conditions are likely to persist
in northern areas however, with the heaviest rain in the northwest.
There is no clear signal at present for conditions into the next week,
the most probable is for northern and western areas to see most of the
rain and windier conditions with drier and brighter conditions in the
south and with near average temperatures generally."

No clear signal? I disagree. Judge that at outcome.

Will Hand wrote:
Groan. No not again, I couldn't stand yet another boring high pressure.
:-(

Will
--

As long it's not one of those Bartlett Highs with persistent cloud and
bits of drizzle day after day. Gosh I hate those winters!

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Oct 3, 9:17*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 2, 11:45*pm, "Ned" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

Are we seeing the beginnings of model consistency and agreement for an
Indian summer? (whatever that actually means!)

Both the ECM and the gfs are looking to build high pressure after this
shock of cool, windy and eventually (for us in the south) wet weather..
As Will says, the drought ought to be broken for many next week and
gales will come as an unwelcome shock in the north tomorrow. I say
unwelcome shock, as trees are still in full leaf and a few might end
up in gardens and across roads in the north with those steep pressure
gradients.

Beyond that - back to calm and settled with the chance of some warm
weather out towards mid October with 20C+ in the south? Watch this
space.

LOL you live in cuckoo land. Why should we bench forecasters (and any
others) watch your posts? *We have all the access to the models we need and
we make forecasts 4 times a day, rather then the once in a blue moon pseudo
"forecast" you come up with.

--
Ned

Careful Ned. If your forecasting is so good, the obvious question is;
why aren't the outcomes at 10 days+ good too - that goes for for any
agency, or forecaster on the net?

I know how good MetO forecasters are and I know how good their
outcomes are out to 5 days. They have improved considerably over the
past 20 years and arer reliable enough to use. They are the best you
can get for the UK. However their (your?) outcomes at 10 days+ clearly
have not and the MetO, or anyone else for that matter, finds
forecasting at that distance impossible on a day-to-day basis. Just
because the forecasts are issued does not make them good. The only way
to judge that is by outcome percentage success and if that sticks in
the craw of some I make no apologies when a bench forecaster comes on
and tells me how good he is because he forecasts 4 times a day. I
would not even begin to compete at 0-5 days. Your meteorology training
and forecasting experience would completely outweigh mine and I have
great respect for bench forecasters' abilities at that distance. At 10
days, it is a different matter. Using the models at my disposal, I
could easily forecast at 10 days, every day, but I would be wrong much
of the time, as you would be and I would have a good chance of being
right only on those occasions I refer to. In fact I'd use percentages
to display how confident I was, as should the MetO.

That's why the MetO only allow about 200 words for the whole forecast
period of 6-15 days (200 words only for a full 10-day period! What use
is that - and no specifics to any day within those 10?) You certainly
don't forecast publically at that distance every 6 hours. The 6-15 day
forecast is updated once every 24 hours if we are lucky; probably in a
tea break *)) The system that I use allows me to be able to forecast
with 75% confidence at particular times (and I accept that those
conditions do not occur often - read my profile). The MetO don't
publish any accuracy records at T240 because they know full well that
accurate (not just regular) forecasting at that distance is beyond
their capabilities, or anyone's capability at present. The models that
you need to do that with accuracy have not yet been invented, so
please don't tell me that you have everything you need to forecast at
10 days+. You haven't, or you'd be able to do it with accuracy. Again,
just note that I am *not* talking about forecastig at short-range.

Last night, the above wasn't a forecast, of course, it was an
observation on how the models are shaping up. This *is* a forecast.
Come back in 10 days and you can take it to pieces if it is wrong -
but it would good if you'd also comment on any of the 77% of these
forecasts that have been right.

**At T240 on Tuesday 13th October, pressure over the bulk of the UK
will be higher than average. These anticyclonic conditions, combined
with lower pressure to the west of Europe will advect some warm air
and daytime temperatures will be significantly above average for many
parts of the UK.**

The MetO 6-15 day forecast says this:

"UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Oct 2009 to Friday 16 Oct 2009:
The period will start on quite an unsettled note with rain or showers
in many parts and perhaps some strong winds in the south at first. On
the first Friday and over the weekend southern parts are expected to
have a drier and more settled interlude with some sunshine but with
temperatures near or rather below the average for the time of year and
with some overnight frosts. Unsettled conditions are likely to persist
in northern areas however, with the heaviest rain in the northwest.
There is no clear signal at present for conditions into the next week,
the most probable is for northern and western areas to see most of the
rain and windier conditions with drier and brighter conditions in the
south and with near average temperatures generally."

No clear signal? I disagree. Judge that at outcome.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

At T180 on 13th Oct, the outcome date for the forecast above, the
model disparity is quite enormous. A difference of 500 miles in the
positioning of the forecast high presently exists between the gfs and
the ECM. The gfs has a high to our West, drawing colder air down over
the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png

The ECM has the high centred to our SE, over Germany, drawing warm air
up from the south.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

GEM indicates no high pressure at all over the UK and has low-pressure
dominance with a westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1801.gif

MetO appears to be going with the gfs today and is ignoring the ECM,
talking of wintry showers over the Scottish mountains.

"UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Oct 2009 to Tuesday 20 Oct 2009:
The south of England should be mainly dry on Sunday and Monday with
perhaps some sunshine. Elsewhere though it will be cloudier with rain
at times. Temperatures should be near average. The middle part of next
week will become unsettled and windy at times, with rain or showers,
but also some drier and brighter spells. The showers are likely to be
heaviest and most persistent in the north and west, and perhaps wintry
at times over Scottish mountains. The south and east is expected to
have the best of the dry and brighter interludes. Temperatures should
remain near average. The further outlook will continue much the same
with further showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some
dry and brighter interludes. Temperatures should remain near normal.

Updated: 1134 on Tue 6 Oct 2009"

Not clear at all. Something has to give. At 7 days, the smart money
would be on the ECM, but we'll just have to see. That's an enormous
divergence at 7 days between those 3 models and again shows just how
difficult forecasting at 10 days is.