On Nov 4, 10:41*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned that
there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd probably have
stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest SST picture has an
interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W. If this were to grow, the
odds against a cold winter could tumble.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

Not in my book Graham. Again, the relationship between Atlantic SSTs
and seasonal weather in the UK, winter, or otherwise, is far from
understood!

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 3 Nov, 21:00, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:

Certainly looks more uniform across the Pacific now. Bang goes any
chance of snow this year here :-(

Keith - you get the gold medal for "first person to write off the
winter chances of snow".

Well played !

Richard

Have a look at the global seasonal category maps for Europe issued in
September (registration required)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...onal/category/
EC has also been giving a similar signal.

Can I have the silver medal ?

Jon.

Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 4, 10:41 am, Graham P Davis wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned that
there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd probably have
stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest SST picture has
an interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W. If this were to
grow, the odds against a cold winter could tumble.



Not in my book Graham. Again, the relationship between Atlantic SSTs
and seasonal weather in the UK, winter, or otherwise, is far from
understood!

It was understood forty years ago. What's changed?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Nov 4, 2:18*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 4, 10:41 am, Graham P Davis wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned that
there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd probably have
stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest SST picture has
an interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W. If this were to
grow, the odds against a cold winter could tumble.

Not in my book Graham. Again, the relationship between Atlantic SSTs
and seasonal weather in the UK, winter, or otherwise, is far from
understood!

It was understood forty years ago. What's changed?

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

You mean there's a statistically significant relationship between
Atlantic SSTs in October and the nature of the coming winter?

On 4 Nov, 12:46, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 4, 10:41*am, Graham P Davis wrote:

Will Hand wrote:
Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned that
there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd probably have
stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest SST picture has an
interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W. If this were to grow, the
odds against a cold winter could tumble.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

Not in my book Graham. Again, the relationship between Atlantic SSTs
and seasonal weather in the UK, winter, or otherwise, is far from
understood!

Agree. I've followed Atlantic SSTs for years, and think they are an
extremely poor predictor of UK weather. They are, more often than not,
just a reflection of a persistent weather pattern. Once that changes,
so do the anomalies.

Graham
Penzance

keep planting that bull**** bait wont you..

Dawlish wrote:
The present El Nino conditions have strengthened over the last week.
The model consensus is now that it will peak during the boreal winter,
as a moderate El Nino (+1.0C). It doesn't look like it will be an
exceptional event, a la 1998.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-10.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Dawlish wrote:

You mean there's a statistically significant relationship between
Atlantic SSTs in October and the nature of the coming winter?

Sorry, got carried away and missed your reference to "seasonal". It's true
that there are statistically significant relationships between Atlantic SSTs
and the following month's pressure anomalies but they'd weaken after that as
they'd be less chance of the SST anomaly persisting.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Nov 5, 9:52*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
You mean there's a statistically significant relationship between
Atlantic SSTs in October and the nature of the coming winter?

Sorry, got carried away and missed your reference to "seasonal". It's true
that there are statistically significant relationships between Atlantic SSTs
and the following month's pressure anomalies but they'd weaken after that as
they'd be less chance of the SST anomaly persisting.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

Yes, I agree, Graham. There's also the relationship between May SSTs
and the sign of the NAO, which, although the correlation is fairly
weak at about 45%, hindcast forecasting produces a much better
accuracy of about 66% and both values are significant at the 95%
level. That's not 66% correct hindcast of our UK winter weather, of
course, as the sign of the NAO is by no means perfectly linked to that
winter weather, but I think that what the MetO are doing in this area
is very interesting. One would think that SSTs would be coupled
closely to the state of the atmosphere above, but the effects of SSTs
may also be thought to not persist. The MetO NAO research on May SSTs
points otherwise with the latter, however and other reseach on, if if
I remember rightly, particular SST Atlantic tripoles (seas off
Newfoundland , seas off Norway and off our SW approaches) may also
give clues as to the weather in the coming season, but there's nothig
that can really aid seasonal forecasting AFAIK, at present.

Graham P Davis wrote:
Will Hand wrote:

Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned that
there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd probably have
stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest SST picture has an
interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W. If this were to grow, the
odds against a cold winter could tumble.


The cold pool seem to be getting colder looking at the latest maps. :-)

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith(Southend) wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:
Will Hand wrote:

Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned
that there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd
probably have stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest
SST picture has an interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W.
If this were to grow, the odds against a cold winter could tumble.


The cold pool seem to be getting colder looking at the latest maps. :-)

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif


Nearest match 2002.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2006.gif


--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net