"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Graham P Davis wrote:
Will Hand wrote:

Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned that
there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd probably have
stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest SST picture has
an interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W. If this were to
grow, the odds against a cold winter could tumble.


The cold pool seem to be getting colder looking at the latest maps. :-)

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif


Calm down now Keith, it's not good to get too excited at your age :-)

Will
--

Will Hand wrote:

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Graham P Davis wrote:
Will Hand wrote:

Oh here we go, the first "winter is written off post before it has even
started" :-)

Not the first; I wrote it off here about a couple of months ago. ;-)

Mind you, that was based on the SST anomaly at the time and I warned
that there was plenty of time for it to change. A week ago I'd
probably have stuck to a mild, westerly type of winter but the latest
SST picture has an interesting development of a cold pool at 40N 40W.
If this were to grow, the odds against a cold winter could tumble.


The cold pool seem to be getting colder looking at the latest maps. :-)

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif


Calm down now Keith, it's not good to get too excited at your age :-)

Will

Big 5 0 in January Will, frightening thought :-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Nov 5, 5:45*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11.2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

On Nov 6, 9:22*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Nov 5, 5:45*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:



http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11..2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

They are anomalies from the mean, not temperatures per se. Thus the
Arctic has been significantly warmer than average during the period
surveyed.

On Nov 6, 9:22 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Nov 5, 5:45 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:



http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11..2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

Do you understand it now?

Update from the Australian BOM. 11/11/09

"In brief

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in
central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly
present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not
been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to
warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -15; the monthly value for
October was also -15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid
fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a
pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the
western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in
recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has
been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El
Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau
predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern
hemisphere summer."

Warmer than was being predicted a couple of months ago, although some
models have been recently showing a sharp rise in temp in November,
which has happened.

On Nov 12, 10:37*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 6, 9:22 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Nov 5, 5:45 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11.2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

Do you understand it now?

Update from the Australian BOM. 11/11/09

"In brief

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in
central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly
present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not
been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to
warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -15; the monthly value for
October was also -15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid
fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a
pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the
western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in
recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has
been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El
Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau
predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern
hemisphere summer."

Warmer than was being predicted a couple of months ago, although some
models have been recently showing a sharp rise in temp in November,
which has happened.

MOnday update from NOAA. Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is
expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the
Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

No great change. The mean of the model spread indicates a slightly
quicker return to ENSO neutral conditions at the end of the boreal
spring.

I'd expect that another two seasons of El Nino conditions should see
some record monthly global temperatures. If that happens, with this El
Nino being unlikely to achieve anywhere near the peak strength of the
1998 version and solar output still at a minimum, it would be very
good evidence for continuing GW. With current conditions, you wouldn't
expect global temperatures to be anywhere near record figures, if
there wasn't an underlying warming driver.

On Nov 17, 7:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 12, 10:37*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 6, 9:22 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Nov 5, 5:45 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11.2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

Do you understand it now?

Update from the Australian BOM. 11/11/09

"In brief

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in
central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly
present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not
been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to
warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -15; the monthly value for
October was also -15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid
fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a
pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the
western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in
recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has
been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El
Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau
predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern
hemisphere summer."

Warmer than was being predicted a couple of months ago, although some
models have been recently showing a sharp rise in temp in November,
which has happened.

MOnday update from NOAA. Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is
expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the
Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

No great change. The mean of the model spread indicates a slightly
quicker return to ENSO neutral conditions at the end of the boreal
spring.

I'd expect that another two seasons of El Nino conditions should see
some record monthly global temperatures. If that happens, with this El
Nino being unlikely to achieve anywhere near the peak strength of the
1998 version and solar output still at a minimum, it would be very
good evidence for continuing GW. With current conditions, you wouldn't
expect global temperatures to be anywhere near record figures, if
there wasn't an underlying warming driver.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This week's ENSO update from NOAA:

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.

Little change on the face of it, though fewer models are predicting an
extension of this El Nino into next summer. Most models still see the
El Nino strengthening through the next month, or two.

On Nov 30, 4:40*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 17, 7:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 12, 10:37*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 6, 9:22 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Nov 5, 5:45 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....11.5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight..11.11.2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

Do you understand it now?

Update from the Australian BOM. 11/11/09

"In brief

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in
central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly
present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not
been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to
warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions..

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -15; the monthly value for
October was also -15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid
fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a
pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the
western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in
recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has
been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El
Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau
predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern
hemisphere summer."

Warmer than was being predicted a couple of months ago, although some
models have been recently showing a sharp rise in temp in November,
which has happened.

MOnday update from NOAA. Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is
expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the
Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

No great change. The mean of the model spread indicates a slightly
quicker return to ENSO neutral conditions at the end of the boreal
spring.

I'd expect that another two seasons of El Nino conditions should see
some record monthly global temperatures. If that happens, with this El
Nino being unlikely to achieve anywhere near the peak strength of the
1998 version and solar output still at a minimum, it would be very
good evidence for continuing GW. With current conditions, you wouldn't
expect global temperatures to be anywhere near record figures, if
there wasn't an underlying warming driver.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This week's ENSO update from NOAA:

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.

Little change on the face of it, though fewer models are predicting an
extension of this El Nino into next summer. Most models still see the
El Nino strengthening through the next *month, or two.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Update from NOAA. Word-for-word the same as last week.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.

On Dec 7, 4:29*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 30, 4:40*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 17, 7:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 12, 10:37*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 6, 9:22 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Nov 5, 5:45 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.5..2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11.2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

Do you understand it now?

Update from the Australian BOM. 11/11/09

"In brief

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in
central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly
present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not
been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to
warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -15; the monthly value for
October was also -15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid
fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a
pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the
western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in
recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has
been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El
Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau
predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern
hemisphere summer."

Warmer than was being predicted a couple of months ago, although some
models have been recently showing a sharp rise in temp in November,
which has happened.

MOnday update from NOAA. Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is
expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the
Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

No great change. The mean of the model spread indicates a slightly
quicker return to ENSO neutral conditions at the end of the boreal
spring.

I'd expect that another two seasons of El Nino conditions should see
some record monthly global temperatures. If that happens, with this El
Nino being unlikely to achieve anywhere near the peak strength of the
1998 version and solar output still at a minimum, it would be very
good evidence for continuing GW. With current conditions, you wouldn't
expect global temperatures to be anywhere near record figures, if
there wasn't an underlying warming driver.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This week's ENSO update from NOAA:

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.

Little change on the face of it, though fewer models are predicting an
extension of this El Nino into next summer. Most models still see the
El Nino strengthening through the next *month, or two.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Update from NOAA. Word-for-word the same as last week.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

ENSO update from the Australian BOM:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Unsurprisingly; little difference from NOAA's Monday update. The El
Nino has matured into a more typical event over the last month. It may
well strengthen further in the short term, but is likely to begin to
decline after the Austral summer - very typical timing for the
strengthening and decay of an El Nino event (hence, of course, it's
Spanish name). The Aussie BOM don't quote as many models as do NOAA,
but 5/7 of the models they do quote show El Nino conditions persisting
through the Austral spring.

The Aussie BOM ENSO Wrap-Up (could you envisage the MetO calling one
of their analyses by such a wonderfully inviting and customer-friendly
name?? PR Dept, please note!) really does link to a terrific amount of
information and it is well worth some exploration.

2 things:

firstly, it really will be fascinating to see the effects of this El
Nino on global temperatures. It's obviously a complex area and there
are lots of factors involved, but three of the major "natural
variation" factors on global temperatures are ENSO, solar effects and
(more recently and less accepted) the PDO. I feel that the present
combination of all three of these ought to point to global
temperatures being nowhere near as high as they currently are - but
I'll put those thoughts onto another thread.

secondly, it is very difficult to predict changes in ENSO from simply
looking at changing maps of Pacific temperature surface temperatures.
Time and again, from the summer onwards, there have been people
telling this newsgroup, other newsgroups and other weather sites that
they'd seen that this El Nino was in decline. It wasn't and you just
can't guys; the experts have been proved right. The various models and
agencies have done a very good job, IMO, in predicting the development
of this El Nino event.

On Dec 9, 11:11*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 7, 4:29*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 30, 4:40*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 17, 7:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 12, 10:37*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 6, 9:22 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Nov 5, 5:45 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11..5.2009.gif

Nearest match 2002.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a...11.11.2002.gif
and 2004http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.11.11.2006.gif

Not sure I understand the red patches in the Arctic.

Or have I greatly misunderstood concerns about ice melt?

Do you understand it now?

Update from the Australian BOM. 11/11/09

"In brief

The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface has continued to warm in
central and eastern areas, with a typical El Niño pattern clearly
present. The central Pacific has now warmed to a level that has not
been observed since the 2002 El Niño.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific has also continued to
warm, with temperatures as much as 6°C above normal in some regions.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -15; the monthly value for
October was also -15. The SOI has recently stabilised after a rapid
fall in value through October.

Following a sustained weakening of the Trade Winds during October, a
pulse of average or stronger than average Trades is developing in the
western Pacific.

Cloudiness near the date-line has been slightly below average in
recent weeks. However, cloudiness to the west of the date-line has
been consistently above average, as also occurred during the 2006 El
Niño and to a lesser extent in the 2002 event.

Most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau
predict that El Niño conditions will persist throughout the southern
hemisphere summer."

Warmer than was being predicted a couple of months ago, although some
models have been recently showing a sharp rise in temp in November,
which has happened.

MOnday update from NOAA. Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average
across much of
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is
expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the
Northern
Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

No great change. The mean of the model spread indicates a slightly
quicker return to ENSO neutral conditions at the end of the boreal
spring.

I'd expect that another two seasons of El Nino conditions should see
some record monthly global temperatures. If that happens, with this El
Nino being unlikely to achieve anywhere near the peak strength of the
1998 version and solar output still at a minimum, it would be very
good evidence for continuing GW. With current conditions, you wouldn't
expect global temperatures to be anywhere near record figures, if
there wasn't an underlying warming driver.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This week's ENSO update from NOAA:

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.

Little change on the face of it, though fewer models are predicting an
extension of this El Nino into next summer. Most models still see the
El Nino strengthening through the next *month, or two.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Update from NOAA. Word-for-word the same as last week.

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere
winter2009-10.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

ENSO update from the Australian BOM:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Unsurprisingly; little difference from NOAA's Monday update. The El
Nino has matured into a more typical event over the last month. It may
well strengthen further in the short term, but is likely to begin to
decline after the Austral summer - very typical timing for the
strengthening and decay of an El Nino event (hence, of course, it's
Spanish name). The Aussie BOM don't quote as many models as do NOAA,
but 5/7 of the models they do quote show El Nino conditions persisting
through the Austral spring.

The Aussie BOM ENSO Wrap-Up (could you envisage the MetO calling one
of their analyses by such a wonderfully inviting and customer-friendly
name?? PR Dept, please note!) really does link to a terrific amount of
information and it is well worth some exploration.

2 things:

firstly, it really will be fascinating to see the effects of this El
Nino on global temperatures. It's obviously a complex area and there
are lots of factors involved, but three of the major "natural
variation" factors on global temperatures are ENSO, solar effects and
(more recently and less accepted) the PDO. I feel that the present
combination of all three of these ought to point to global
temperatures being nowhere near as high as they currently are - but
I'll put those thoughts onto another thread.

secondly, it is very difficult to predict changes in ENSO from simply
looking at changing maps of Pacific temperature surface temperatures.
Time and again, from the summer onwards, *there have been people
telling this newsgroup, other newsgroups and other weather sites that
they'd seen that this El Nino was in decline. It wasn't and you just
can't guys; the experts have been proved right. The various models and
agencies have done a very good job, IMO, in predicting the development
of this El Nino event.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Monday ENSO update from NOAA:

•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average
across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010.

Not much change from last week, but the NCEP CFS Forecast mean of the
ensembles now indicates that the present El Nino will last until the
boreal summer.