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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
Issued 0546, 22nd November 2009. In summary, the change to cooler (relative to recent) conditions is still on the way, as the jet moves southwards. Low pressure will be close to the UK to end the working week with all areas seeing rain, especially so in the north and west. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS Southerlies cover the UK, with a deep low to the west. The low moves NE'wards tomorrow, leading to strong to gale force SW'lies over the UK. A weak ridge brings a respite on Tuesday, with lighter WSW'lies, before strengthening SW'lies move in from the west on Wednesday. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a strong jet over the North Atlantic, with the jet heading ESE'wards towards Iberia. There's an upper trough over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's also a trough, with westerlies aloft. ECM also has westerlies aloft and a trough over the UK, as is the case with MetO. GEM has WSW'lies aloft with the centre of the trough further west, while JMA is similar to the others with a trough and westerlies over the UK. At the surface, GFS brings WSW'lies and a weak trough. ECM has a trough to the west and stronger SW'lies, as is the case with MetO and GEM. JMA has a trough over eastern areas of the UK with westerlies as a result. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows SW'lies on day 6 as a weak low crosses Scotland. On day 7 a weak ridge brings westerlies to much of England and Wales, with a col for Scotland and southerlies for Northern Ireland. GFS brings a trough in from the west on day 6, with southerlies in advance and westerlies following behind. On day 7 low pressure covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, leading to SW'lies elsewhere. Looking further afield ECM shows southerlies over England and Wales on day 8 as a low deepens to the SW. ENE'lies cover Scotland and Northern Ireland. On day 9 low pressure lies over the North Sea, with a mixture of NW'lies and SW'lies for the UK. Day 10 sees the low fills to the NE, with westerlies for all. Days 8 to 10 with GFS show an upper low moving slowly NE'wards from the UK. On day 8 a surface low covers Scotland, with light westerlies elsewhere. The low remains in situ on day 9, with stronger westerlies elsewhere. By day 10 the low deepens to the NE, leaving strong westerlies and NW'lies over the UK. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The ensembles show a relatively average 5 to 7 days after Wednesday. |
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