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OMG !
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png
-- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
OMG !
"Keith(Southend)" schreef in bericht
... : http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png Keith, do you have any plans to post "Looking east, key cold indicators" like last December ? http://groups.google.be/group/uk.sci...53717?hl=fr&q= Colin Youngs Brussels |
OMG !
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png -- Topped only by the GFS fantasy end of the world scenario a week later. Saved here for posterity http://www.metbrief.com/Images/endoworld.png Jon. |
OMG !
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message ... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net Keith, calm down you ain't seen nothing yet! Wait till the mild air tries to get back in near Xmas, then it'll be OMG, OMG, OMG :-) This is why I love winter so much, the drama is fantastic! Will -- |
OMG !
On Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:37:33 +0000, Keith(Southend) wrote in
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png That could be very interesting with an 850mb temp over much of the country of -10C or lower. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 09/12/2009 22:48:44 GMT |
OMG !
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Keith(Southend)" wrote in message ... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png -- Topped only by the GFS fantasy end of the world scenario a week later. Saved here for posterity http://www.metbrief.com/Images/endoworld.png OMG I hadn't spotted that one! Will -- |
OMG !
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message ... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png Have a look at T+384. Christmas Day Arrmageddon for the SW :) -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
OMG !
On Wed, 9 Dec 2009 22:47:50 -0000, Jon O'Rourke wrote in
Topped only by the GFS fantasy end of the world scenario a week later. Saved here for posterity http://www.metbrief.com/Images/endoworld.png Pity William Hill don't take weather bets at night as I'm sure the odds will be even lower tomorrow. Many places were 6-1 today, down two points from yesterday. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 09/12/2009 23:01:47 GMT |
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Colin Youngs wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" schreef in bericht ... : http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png Keith, do you have any plans to post "Looking east, key cold indicators" like last December ? http://groups.google.be/group/uk.sci...53717?hl=fr&q= Colin Youngs Brussels Hi Colin, I'll try to start it up again in the next day or two. -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
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Will Hand wrote:
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message ... "Keith(Southend)" wrote in message ... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png -- Topped only by the GFS fantasy end of the world scenario a week later. Saved here for posterity http://www.metbrief.com/Images/endoworld.png OMG I hadn't spotted that one! Will Of course we're above 528DAM in the south :-( -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
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Col wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message ... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png Have a look at T+384. Christmas Day Arrmageddon for the SW :) Armageddon outahere. -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy "I wear the cheese. It does not wear me." |
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On 10 Dec, 08:14, Graham P Davis wrote:
Col wrote: "Keith(Southend)" wrote in message ... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png Have a look at T+384. Christmas Day Arrmageddon for the SW :) Armageddon outahere. -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy "I wear the cheese. It does not wear me." I am really getting twitchy as to it not being cold enough at low level for significant snowfall, it almost appears that the cold pool off Russia never really packs a punch in our direction. The 528DAM we seem to be on the wrong side of it with the low in the North Sea not helping. And then most of the run up to Christmas, although cold down south, not cold enough to me :-( Sorry to be a humbug, but I have a bad feeling about the whole thing! Keith (Southend) |
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On 10 Dec, 08:27, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote: On 10 Dec, 08:14, Graham P Davis wrote: Col wrote: "Keith(Southend)" wrote in message ... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png Have a look at T+384. Christmas Day Arrmageddon for the SW :) Armageddon outahere. -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy "I wear the cheese. It does not wear me." I am really getting twitchy as to it not being cold enough at low level for significant snowfall, it almost appears that the cold pool off Russia never really packs a punch in our direction. The 528DAM we seem to be on the wrong side of it with the low in the North Sea not helping. And then most of the run up to Christmas, although cold down south, not cold enough to me :-( Sorry to be a humbug, but I have a bad feeling about the whole thing! Keith (Southend) eg.. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2163.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2403.png Some hope for Tuesday and Wednesday next week: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1203.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1443.png Keith (Southend) |
OMG !
On Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:35:38 -0800 (PST), Keith (Southend)G wrote in
Sorry to be a humbug, but I have a bad feeling about the whole thing! Keith (Southend) eg.. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2163.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2403.png In frontal situations like those, the 528 thickness is not particularly useful, as the cold air is confined much closer to the surface. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 10/12/2009 09:12:22 GMT |
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On 9 Dec, 22:46, "Colin Youngs" wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" schreef in ... :http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png Keith, do you have any plans to post "Looking east, key cold indicators" like last December ?http://groups.google.be/group/uk.sci...ead/thread/37d... Colin Youngs Brussels Ah, just checked, I did add something on my spreadsheet which picked out those locations in the list, and it's still there, so it shouldn't cause my to much work. Update later tonight as we are wine testing at the gym, a good way to keep fit LOL ! Keith (Southend) |
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On Dec 9, 10:37*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png -- Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net You know Keith, OMG was exactly the words I uttered to my computer screen when I saw the 06z gfs (and OMG yet again, note, my laptop is getting used to this exclamation!). It is highly unlikely to pan out exactly like that but we have an overall pattern which has a high confidence (75%+) of producing wintry weather in 10 days and the model;s are in almost complete areement. OK, the 00z ECM shows something a little different, but that's likely to be an outlier. Compared to the charts of the last few years, this really is OMG territory - and if I'm saying that, after my long record of decrying the idiots who shout "snowfest" at every cold chart at T240+ on the gfs, then I reckon it is more likely to happen than not. PS Wine tasting in a gym. Nice idea! *)) |
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On 10 Dec, 09:54, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 9, 10:37*pm, "Keith(Southend)" wrote: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png -- Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net You know Keith, OMG was exactly the words I uttered to my computer screen when I saw the 06z gfs (and OMG yet again, note, my laptop is getting used to this exclamation!). It is highly unlikely to pan out exactly like that but we have an overall pattern which has a high confidence (75%+) of producing wintry weather in 10 days and the model;s are in almost complete areement. OK, the 00z ECM shows something a little different, but that's likely to be an outlier. Compared to the charts of the last few years, this really is OMG territory - and if I'm saying that, after my long record of decrying the idiots who shout "snowfest" at every cold chart at T240+ on the gfs, then I reckon it is more likely to happen than not. PS Wine tasting in a gym. Nice idea! *)) I'm sure things will look a lot rosier later :-) Hic ! Keith (Southend) |
OMG !
On Dec 10, 9:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 9, 10:37*pm, "Keith(Southend)" wrote: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png -- Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net You know Keith, OMG was exactly the words I uttered to my computer screen when I saw the 06z gfs (and OMG yet again, note, my laptop is getting used to this exclamation!). It is highly unlikely to pan out exactly like that but we have an overall pattern which has a high confidence (75%+) of producing wintry weather in 10 days and the model;s are in almost complete areement. **OK, the 00z ECM shows something a little different, but that's likely to be an outlier.** Compared to the charts of the last few years, this really is OMG territory - and if I'm saying that, after my long record of decrying the idiots who shout "snowfest" at every cold chart at T240+ on the gfs, then I reckon it is more likely to happen than not. PS Wine tasting in a gym. Nice idea! *)) http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html As I thought, the EMS ensemble mean shows colder than what was indicated by the 00z chart. The cold pattern is very well set to at last 10 days and probably further, though it looks as if it *may* turn drier over the Christmas period. (Very low confidence in that, mind, but if it was to turn drier, many areas would have snow-covered Christmas, as there would be little thawing with the low temperatures over the snowfields). ........Did I really write that? Strange times indeed! |
OMG !
On Dec 9, 11:01*pm, Mike Tullett wrote:
On Wed, 9 Dec 2009 22:47:50 -0000, Jon O'Rourke wrote in Topped only by the GFS fantasy end of the world scenario a week later. Saved here for posterity http://www.metbrief.com/Images/endoworld.png Pity William Hill don't take weather bets at night as I'm sure the odds will be even lower tomorrow. *Many places were 6-1 today, down two points from yesterday. -- Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W *posted 09/12/2009 23:01:47 *GMT Methinks you are thinking of betting in the pre-Internet age. William Hill are online now you know and take bets 24/7! 9/2 at William Hill this morning, best price on Oddschecker is 11/2 with Skybet, for snow in London. No change from yesterday evening. |
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On Dec 10, 10:04*am, Dawlish wrote:
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html Useful link, that (for an impending easterly) - I wonder if the EC know that their EPS output is on there...! Richard |
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Dawlish" Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather Sent: Thursday, December 10, 2009 10:04 AM Subject: OMG ! http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html As I thought, the EMS ensemble mean shows colder than what was indicated by the 00z chart. My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10 (where the Op run ends). What has changed on EC's 00Z Op run, and no doubt will continue to do so, is the shape of the upper trough to the east of the UK and the subsequent handling of any short wave developments in the North Sea. This has a critical knock on effect on how far west any cold air in depth extends and also how much precip. will affect the UK. Jon. |
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On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10 (where the Op run ends). Google translator does this: Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m height Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours (winter) or CAPE / storm (summer) Richard |
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"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
... On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote: My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10 (where the Op run ends). Google translator does this: Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m height Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours (winter) or CAPE / storm (summer) Richard Thanks. It's a pity they don't offer 850hPa temps. as well as 2m ones on that plot. Jon. |
OMG !
On Dec 10, 12:09*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote: My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10 (where the Op run ends). Google translator does this: Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m height Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours (winter) or CAPE / storm (summer) Richard Thanks. It's a pity they don't offer 850hPa temps. as well as 2m ones on that plot. Jon.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - |
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On Dec 10, 1:03*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 10, 12:09*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote: "Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote: My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10 (where the Op run ends). Google translator does this: Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m height Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours (winter) or CAPE / storm (summer) Richard Thanks. It's a pity they don't offer 850hPa temps. as well as 2m ones on that plot. Jon.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Odd, I must have hit "send"! |
OMG !
"Richard Dixon" schreef in bericht
... : On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote: : My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've : read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and : the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10 : (where the Op run ends). : Google translator does this: : Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m : height : Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours : (winter) or CAPE / storm (summer) : Richard It says: On the left: precipitation per 6 hours; wind speed 10 m height; temperature 2 m height On the right: accumulated precipitation; wind gusts; alternating: snowfall per 6 hours (winter) or CAPE / thunderstorm (summer) At the bottom it says: Explanation: The green lines: the 50 perturbed (?) forecasts (T399/T255) The red line: the operational T799 ECMWF forecast The blue dotted line: the unperturbed (?) T399/T255 forecast The brown dotted line: the ensemble mean Do you say perturbed / unperturbed ? I am retiring in 4 months' time. I wonder if Google Translator will be appointed to take my place ! Colin Youngs Brussels |
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In article ,
Colin Youngs writes: I am retiring in 4 months' time. I wonder if Google Translator will be appointed to take my place ! I hope that you have a long and happy retirement. Does it mean that you will be returning to the UK? -- John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps, like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps." Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place" |
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"John Hall" schreef in bericht
: In article , : Colin Youngs writes: : I am retiring in 4 months' time. I wonder if Google Translator will be : appointed to take my place ! : I hope that you have a long and happy retirement. Does it mean that you : will be returning to the UK? Thank you, John. So do I ! No, I will not be returning to the UK in the immediate future. I may be away from home more often than at present though - especially in the summer half of the year. All still a bit in the future yet - I am retiring at the end of March. Colin Youngs Brussels |
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