MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html

The Hadley centre are forecasting record global temperatures next
year.

I think along very similar lines and I've been writing as such since
the start of this El Nino. *If* this El Nino continues through to the
Boreal summer, 2010 may well be the warmest year on record, beating
1998. The effects are already being seen in the global temperatures
from June 2009. The 12 month period from June 2009 - May 2010 may well
end up the warmest 12-month period on record - it is already well on
the way - and this warmth may well continue to the end of 2010 *if*
the El Nino continues.

Ifs and buts, I know and they are reflected in the Hadley Centre's
written forecast. This forecast of +0.60C above the 1961-90 average
would leave 2010 global temperatures really quite hugely above
1998/2005 (At 0.08C it doesn't sound "hugely above", but that kind of
value would erase the 1998 record by some distance) and it is an
extreme forecast. To forecast record global temperatures with an
extended solar minimum is a fair old leap in the dark. A real stick-
your-head-over-the-parapet forecast, with, if you are a sceptic, every
chance of going wrong. In fact, from a sceptics view, surely this
should not happen? I'm sure the "can't trust anything they say"
rubbish will flow swiftly, as will comparisons to the MetOs only
reasonable seasonal forecasting which are simply not valid.

At present, I agree with what they are saying - but it does depend on
the persistence of this El Nino event.

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html

The Hadley centre are forecasting record global temperatures next
year.

I think along very similar lines and I've been writing as such since
the start of this El Nino. *If* this El Nino continues through to the
Boreal summer, 2010 may well be the warmest year on record, beating
1998. The effects are already being seen in the global temperatures
from June 2009. The 12 month period from June 2009 - May 2010 may well
end up the warmest 12-month period on record - it is already well on
the way - and this warmth may well continue to the end of 2010 *if*
the El Nino continues.

Ifs and buts, I know and they are reflected in the Hadley Centre's
written forecast. This forecast of +0.60C above the 1961-90 average
would leave 2010 global temperatures really quite hugely above
1998/2005 (At 0.08C it doesn't sound "hugely above", but that kind of
value would erase the 1998 record by some distance) and it is an
extreme forecast. To forecast record global temperatures with an
extended solar minimum is a fair old leap in the dark. A real stick-
your-head-over-the-parapet forecast, with, if you are a sceptic, every
chance of going wrong. In fact, from a sceptics view, surely this
should not happen? I'm sure the "can't trust anything they say"
rubbish will flow swiftly, as will comparisons to the MetOs only
reasonable seasonal forecasting which are simply not valid.

At present, I agree with what they are saying - but it does depend on
the persistence of this El Nino event.


Its a Copenhagen Special release considering the timing

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

On Dec 11, 3:06*pm, John. Athome wrote:
On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:





http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html

The Hadley centre are forecasting record global temperatures next
year.

I think along very similar lines and I've been writing as such since
the start of this El Nino. *If* this El Nino continues through to the
Boreal summer, 2010 may well be the warmest year on record, beating
1998. The effects are already being seen in the global temperatures
from June 2009. The 12 month period from June 2009 - May 2010 may well
end up the warmest 12-month period on record - it is already well on
the way - and this warmth may well continue to the end of 2010 *if*
the El Nino continues.

Ifs and buts, I know and they are reflected in the Hadley Centre's
written forecast. This forecast of +0.60C above the 1961-90 average
would leave 2010 global temperatures really quite hugely above
1998/2005 (At 0.08C it doesn't sound "hugely above", but that kind of
value would erase the 1998 record by some distance) and it is an
extreme forecast. To forecast record global temperatures with an
extended solar minimum is a fair old leap in the dark. A real stick-
your-head-over-the-parapet forecast, with, if you are a sceptic, every
chance of going wrong. In fact, from a sceptics view, surely this
should not happen? I'm sure the "can't trust anything they say"
rubbish will flow swiftly, as will comparisons to the MetOs only
reasonable seasonal forecasting which are simply not valid.

At present, I agree with what they are saying - but it does depend on
the persistence of this El Nino event.

Its a Copenhagen Special release considering the timing- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Last year the global forecast was released a little later, at the end
of December, John, that's true!

However the forecast is likely to be jpretty close. The MetO forecast
that 2009 would be in the top 5 warmest years on record, with an
outcome temperature of 14.44C, just over 0.4C above the 1961-90
average. It won't be far away from that. Remember also that the year
started with a weak La Nina, so one certainly wouldn't expect 2009 to
be on a par with the global temperatures in 1998, or 2005. In fact,
with the influence of a declining La Nina for the first few months of
the year (and a solar minimum and a negative PDO), it could be argued
that 2009 shouldn't be *anywhere near* the top 5 warmest on record. I
won't repeat some of the sillier Internet forecasts of a "super" La
Nina developing and 2009 being the start of a worldwide cooling. I
think the denialist blogosphere has put that back yet another
year.........*))

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
snip

I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:

"Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-
warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."

I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

"David Buttery" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
snip

I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:

"Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-
warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."

I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!

*Expected* to be.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

"David Buttery" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
snip

I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:

"Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-
warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."

I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!


I wonder if the very cold conditions over a lot of Europe/Russia expected in
the next half of the month will make a difference or do the El Nino SSTs
dominate? I would prefer to see land figures only when talking about
warmest/coldest as that's where humans live - on land. Are there any
datasets available for land only?

Will
--

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

On Dec 11, 5:49*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"David Buttery" wrote in message

...

On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
snip

I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:

"Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-
warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."

I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!

I wonder if the very cold conditions over a lot of Europe/Russia expected in
the next half of the month will make a difference or do the El Nino SSTs
dominate? I would prefer to see land figures only when talking about
warmest/coldest as that's where humans live - on land. Are there any
datasets available for land only?

Will
--

Several Will

UAH http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
RSS ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_...cean_v03_2.txt

Both satellite series out already for Nov.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php

NOAA's November figures will be out mid-month. Click on the month and
"global analysis" for the land, sea and land+sea figures for each
month.

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

In article ,
Col writes:

"David Buttery" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
snip

I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:

"Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-
warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."

I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!

*Expected* to be.

The use of "confirm" and "expected" in the same sentence seems designed
to confuse, though.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

On 11 Dec, 19:46, John Hall wrote:
In article ,





*Col writes:

"David Buttery" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
snip

I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:

"Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the fifth-
warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."

I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!

*Expected* to be.

The use of "confirm" and "expected" in the same sentence seems designed
to confuse, though.
--
John Hall *"[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
* * * * * * like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
* * * * * * its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well, it doesn't really matter anymore. Your certifiable prime
minister is going to chuck 1.5 billion pounds of your money at
"climate change", and give it to some third world dictatorship or
other despots who don't need it, and will probably blue it all on
weaponry - I see they've started squabbling in Copenhagen already.
Completely and utterly stark raving bonkers. Not much chance of you
lot beating the recession at this rate, methinks. Are your belltowers
in order? Mind you, Sarkozy's just as mad. Will the world stop
warming/cooling? Will it buggery....

CK

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 5:49 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"David Buttery" wrote in message

...

On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
snip

I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:

"Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the
fifth-
warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."

I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!

I wonder if the very cold conditions over a lot of Europe/Russia expected
in
the next half of the month will make a difference or do the El Nino SSTs
dominate? I would prefer to see land figures only when talking about
warmest/coldest as that's where humans live - on land. Are there any
datasets available for land only?

Will
--

Several Will

UAH http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
RSS
ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_...cean_v03_2.txt

Both satellite series out already for Nov.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php

NOAA's November figures will be out mid-month. Click on the month and
"global analysis" for the land, sea and land+sea figures for each
month.

=====================

Thanks Paul. I knew someone would have the answer!

Will
--

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
|
| "David Buttery" wrote in message
| ...
| On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:
|
| http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
| snip
|
| I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:
|
| "Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the
fifth-
| warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."
|
| I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
| Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!
|
|
| I wonder if the very cold conditions over a lot of Europe/Russia expected
in
| the next half of the month will make a difference or do the El Nino SSTs
| dominate? I would prefer to see land figures only when talking about
| warmest/coldest as that's where humans live - on land. Are there any
| datasets available for land only?
|

Remember your spherical geometry. Half of the earth's surface is within 30
degrees north and south of the Equator and a substantial part of that is in
the Pacific Ocean (where El Nino lives). Only 15% of the earth's surface is
north of 45 degrees north and how much of that is Europe and west Russia?

This is why the tropics often dominate in such matters. There is just so
much more surface area there.
--
- Yokel -

"Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

On Dec 11, 11:14*pm, "Yokel"
wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message

...
|
| "David Buttery" wrote in message
...
| On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:
|
| http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
| snip
|
| I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:
|
| "Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the
fifth-
| warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."
|
| I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
| Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!
|
|
| I wonder if the very cold conditions over a lot of Europe/Russia expected
in
| the next half of the month will make a difference or do the El Nino SSTs
| dominate? I would prefer to see land figures only when talking about
| warmest/coldest as that's where humans live - on land. Are there any
| datasets available for land only?
|

Remember your spherical geometry. *Half of the earth's surface is within 30
degrees north and south of the Equator and a substantial part of that is in
the Pacific Ocean (where El Nino lives). *Only 15% of the earth's surface is
north of 45 degrees north and how much of that is Europe and west Russia?

This is why the tropics often dominate in such matters. *There is just so
much more surface area there.
--
* * * * * * * * - Yokel -

"Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.


I think that you will find that the Met Office/Hadlet centre
temperature records that have been released as being "the real raw
data" are actually flawed by systematic error.
If you look at the map of distribution of the recording stations, you
will quite clearly see that of the 1500 locations, most of them are in
the USA and other traditionally industrialised areas, and based near
to either big cities, or airports near to cities. And that has been
happenning for the last 100 years or so? Modern day urbanisation/
development, which has led to massive urban heat island effects such
as the generation of "country breezes".

So as you can imagine, systematic error has been drawn into the mix,
such that the temperatures recored do not show a typical spatial
"unbiased" recored of events...in other words they are showing warming
where there isn't any.
The night time minima willalso be biased on the warm side, as the
cities do not cool overnight as the surrounding areas do.

Make no mistake, the only way to stop the promugation of such crap
data sets is to start again, this time totally ignoring any stations
globally which are within a certain radius of modern day urbanisation.

If any other climate scientists are reading this,please re-run your
models without the cities bias, then post here what you observe!

Astra

MetO/Hadley centre global temperature forecast 2010.
 

On 12 Dec, 14:05, Neo wrote:
On Dec 11, 11:14*pm, "Yokel"
wrote:





"Will Hand" wrote in message

...
|
| "David Buttery" wrote in message
...
| On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:24:28 -0800, Dawlish wrote:
|
| http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20091210b.html
| snip
|
| I can't say I'm too fond of the phrasing of this bit, dealing with 2009:
|
| "Recently released figures confirm that 2009 is expected to be the
fifth-
| warmest year in the instrumental record that dates back to 1850."
|
| I seem to remember saying this last year, but I really do wish the Met
| Office would wait until 1 Jan 2010 before telling us how warm 2009 was!
|
|
| I wonder if the very cold conditions over a lot of Europe/Russia expected
in
| the next half of the month will make a difference or do the El Nino SSTs
| dominate? I would prefer to see land figures only when talking about
| warmest/coldest as that's where humans live - on land. Are there any
| datasets available for land only?
|

Remember your spherical geometry. *Half of the earth's surface is within 30
degrees north and south of the Equator and a substantial part of that is in
the Pacific Ocean (where El Nino lives). *Only 15% of the earth's surface is
north of 45 degrees north and how much of that is Europe and west Russia?

This is why the tropics often dominate in such matters. *There is just so
much more surface area there.
--
* * * * * * * * - Yokel -

"Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

I think that you will find that the Met Office/Hadlet centre
temperature records that have been released as being "the real raw
data" are actually flawed by systematic error.
If you look at the map of distribution of the recording stations, you
will quite clearly see that of the 1500 locations, most of them are in
the USA and other traditionally industrialised areas, and based near
to either big cities, or airports near to cities. And that has been
happenning for the last 100 years or so? * Modern day urbanisation/
development, which has led to massive urban heat island effects such
as the generation of "country breezes".

So as you can imagine, systematic error has been drawn into the mix,
such that the temperatures recored do not show a typical spatial
"unbiased" recored of events...in other words they are showing warming
where there isn't any.
The night time minima willalso be biased on the warm side, as the
cities do not cool overnight as the surrounding areas do.

Make no mistake, the only way to stop the promugation of such crap
data sets is to start again, this time totally ignoring any stations
globally which are within a certain radius of modern day urbanisation.

If any other climate scientists are reading this,please re-run your
models without the cities bias, then post here what you observe!

Astra- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

No, No and No again.

The NOAA dataset is over 7,000 stations, The usefulness of the
stations and the accuracy of the record has been checked rechecked and
is accepted (OK, you don't and a few others) by all. The checking and
especially the corellation with other global temperature measures has
been done in response to sceptic Adjustments have been made to
compensate for the growing urban influence on a minority of sites.
It's the same with Hadley and the GISS. The 2 satellite measures
correlate very well with all three land based measures for the 30
years of their use and the 3 land-based measures correlate with each
other. In any case, the absolute measures, though statistically
completely valid, are less important than the trends which are shown
by all 5 datasets.