I shouldn't really look at just one 06hr gfs run, but my snow day now
seems to be down to one day, thursday :-(
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1203.png
UKMO appear to me to be the less keen of the lot for this cold to come
in, although we don't see that far ahead, am I right what I say here?

Not quite sure what those wallowing lows and highs are going to do over
the weekend? Although sub 510DAM over Germany :-)
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1683.png
Thicknesses look very promising on this slide.
ECMWF seem to be less enthusiastic with the thickness's

Then that low with low thicknesses on Sunday onwards, looks fine, but I
bet it will be rain at low levels with our wind from the west or southwest.
I hope I'm wrong but....

Christmas, still in never never land, but gfs wants to be a humbug,
turning things mild on Christmas Eve. I'm hoping this model is just
trying to revert to the norm, as has been indicated on here, we're in
the cold beyond Christmas
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2883.png

All in all, anything could happen, some days could be quite borderline
with rain/sleet & snow at times, unless you're away from the coast
or/and up a few metres.

Snowy thoughts :-)
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Snowy thoughts :-)

Hi Keith

Have left Dorset for a few days for Bedford where it is really
suprisingly mild - half expected it to be a bit chillier.
I have not been out much as the Mrs developed a virus and has been in
bed for the best part of 3 days so I have been pounding up and down
stairs doing the nursing bit. (She had the seasonal flu jab in one arm
and oink flu in the other a week ago or so, but this is not related).
There seems to have been a heck of a lot of posting about this cold
'event' but my gut feeling is that it just is not going to get cold
enough. I caught sight of a few charts the other day ( I can access
FNMOC here but not in Dorset) and was stunned to see (then) high
pressure across to the North Atlantic sort of stretching into
Scandinavia. It was really exciting at first, but it seems there is
not going to be much of a cold push westwards to us.

But it is interesting that it is on the cards that this regime can
carry on until 2010, and the newsgroup has plenty of postings which
enlivens the day somewhat

Regards

Robin
exHilton & temping at
Bedford

The models currently seem to be hinting at more significant snowfall
over the weekend and early the following week, associated with a low
coming down from the north. Could be a messy picture as milder air
gets dragged into the south, but many of the classic snowfalls of the
1980s were "marginal" events with moist warm stuff adding to the mix.

This coming week I would say eastern parts could well get some snow
any time from Tue/Wed onwards, with the chance increasing the further
you go through the week.

All very much subject to change of course!