.... and it could be a foot of snow in parts of the south, if the 12Z
mesoscale run is to be believed! Both the NAE and the 12Z GFS (not
that I would put too much store in the latter) are really ramping up a
small low pressure centre on the south coast on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with the potential for heavy snowfall.

Cumulative ppn totals are 20mm+ on the NAE, rather more on the GFS,
over 48 hours (i.e. by 12Z Wednesday).

I'm not suggesting this "will" happen, but it is something to keep an
eye on I think....

(NAE charts can be viewed at http://tinyurl.com/yhnlohj - move through
the times from 0 - 48 using the links above the chart.)

Met Office have just put out an advisory too:

"Heavy Snow Wed 6 Jan
There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of southern
England and east Wales.

There is a potential for a period of heavy snow during Wednesday
morning with locally large accumulations. The location of the heavy
snow is uncertain and will be kept under review.

Issued at: 1553 Mon 4 Jan"

"RK" wrote in message
...
... and it could be a foot of snow in parts of the south, if the 12Z
mesoscale run is to be believed! Both the NAE and the 12Z GFS (not
that I would put too much store in the latter) are really ramping up a
small low pressure centre on the south coast on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with the potential for heavy snowfall.

Cumulative ppn totals are 20mm+ on the NAE, rather more on the GFS,
over 48 hours (i.e. by 12Z Wednesday).

I'm not suggesting this "will" happen, but it is something to keep an
eye on I think....

Very much so, Rob. The heavy snow advisories for Wednesday have now been
extended across western areas
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ngs.html?day=1

Jon.

Jon O'Rourke wrote:

"RK" wrote in message
...
... and it could be a foot of snow in parts of the south, if the 12Z
mesoscale run is to be believed! Both the NAE and the 12Z GFS (not
that I would put too much store in the latter) are really ramping up a
small low pressure centre on the south coast on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with the potential for heavy snowfall.

Cumulative ppn totals are 20mm+ on the NAE, rather more on the GFS,
over 48 hours (i.e. by 12Z Wednesday).

I'm not suggesting this "will" happen, but it is something to keep an
eye on I think....

Very much so, Rob. The heavy snow advisories for Wednesday have now been
extended across western areas
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ngs.html?day=1

Jon.


I'm in a green oasis :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

On Jan 4, 4:08*pm, RK wrote:
... and it could be a foot of snow in parts of the south, if the 12Z
mesoscale run is to be believed! Both the NAE and the 12Z GFS (not
that I would put too much store in the latter) are really ramping up a
small low pressure centre on the south coast on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with the potential for heavy snowfall.

Cumulative ppn totals are 20mm+ on the NAE, rather more on the GFS,
over 48 hours (i.e. by 12Z Wednesday).

I'm not suggesting this "will" happen, but it is something to keep an
eye on I think....

Yup, noticed it on the 12z gfs, but I refuse to believe it on the
basis of one run! Hoping for snow, but I won't be too disappointed if
the chance fades over the next 12 hours. The next set of FAX charts
could be interesting!

On Jan 4, 4:43*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The next set of FAX charts could be interesting!

New fax for 12 noon tomorrow: http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Shows a separate LP centre over the Welsh border, which seems
consistent with the 12Z NAE ouput:
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...10512_0412.gif

The chart for midnight will be the key one, 12 hours later...

"RK" wrote in message
...
On Jan 4, 4:43 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The next set of FAX charts could be interesting!

New fax for 12 noon tomorrow: http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Shows a separate LP centre over the Welsh border, which seems
consistent with the 12Z NAE ouput:
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...10512_0412.gif

The chart for midnight will be the key one, 12 hours later...
==============

I must confess that I'm getting *really* interested about tomorrow now.
Without exagerration this could be a very big snowfall (foot or more) for
many parts of Wales and southern Britain.
Embedded small lows are a sign of deep potential instability in the flow.

Now where did I put that snow shovel that has not been used for 10 months?
:-)

Will (Haytor, Devon , 1017 feet asl)
--

On Jan 4, 5:08*pm, RK wrote:
On Jan 4, 4:43*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The next set of FAX charts could be interesting!

New fax for 12 noon tomorrow:http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Shows a separate LP centre over the Welsh border, which seems
consistent with the 12Z NAE ouput:http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...nae/2010/01/04...

The chart for midnight will be the key one, 12 hours later...

Goodness! And that at 24 hours, not at some impossible distance. There
are heavy snow possibilities in that chart for almost anyone in the
UK. It is, still, only a chart though, as you rightly imply Rob, by
looking forward to the next one!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 4, 5:08 pm, RK wrote:
On Jan 4, 4:43 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The next set of FAX charts could be interesting!

New fax for 12 noon tomorrow:http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Shows a separate LP centre over the Welsh border, which seems
consistent with the 12Z NAE
ouput:http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...nae/2010/01/04...

The chart for midnight will be the key one, 12 hours later...

Goodness! And that at 24 hours, not at some impossible distance. There
are heavy snow possibilities in that chart for almost anyone in the
UK. It is, still, only a chart though, as you rightly imply Rob, by
looking forward to the next one!
================

Paul, T+24 charts are rarely wrong these days, fine tuning of course will be
needed but the evolution is there.

Will
--